Final Call: Who do the O's protect from the Rule 5 draft?

[Jammer7]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Neustrom is not good defensively, can't hit left-handers, and slashed .203/.285/.366/.651 with a 14 to 36 BB/K ratio over his last 138 PAs in AAA. What makes you think he'd be hot on anyone's list of Rule 5 selections? There may be ten better outfielders in the system that are better prospects.

IDK, Tony. Perhaps you’re right. He is still a better value than Stewart. He is a better defender, maybe a tick below average corner OF, and has considerably more power and he is starting to get it. The only thing Stewart does better is walk. Neustrom is 3 years younger.

I get the depth and the fade over the last month at AAA, but I don’t want to give away LH power bats like Neustrom. He could be the first to hit the warehouse on the fly. He improved dramatically in 2021 with Fuller in AA. We’ll see.

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hmmm, I’m sensing that Neustrom may not show up in the no. 27-30 prospects yet to be named…. 

Your spidey sense are well noted!

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Jammer7 said:

IDK, Tony. Perhaps you’re right. He is still a better value than Stewart. He is a better defender, maybe a tick below average corner OF, and has considerably more power and he is starting to get it. The only thing Stewart does better is walk. Neustrom is 3 years younger.

I get the depth and the fade over the last month at AAA, but I don’t want to give away LH power bats like Neustrom. He could be the first to hit the warehouse on the fly. He improved dramatically in 2021 with Fuller in AA. We’ll see.

If you want to keep Neustrom over Stewart, have at it because I don't think Stewart is very good. The thing is, there is no reason to put Neustrom on the 40-man because it's very doubtful he gets selected. He's just not the kind of player that gets taken because there's not a ton of upside and he doesn't bring speed or defensive value.  Also, his low LD rate  (14.8% at AAA), pull approach and ground ball tendency really concerns me at the major league level. 

He's a 40 level player with a 45 upside as a platoon guy who brings a little pop. 

[UMDTerrapins]

I disagree on Neustrom. His numbers against lefties were clearly a red flag this year, but he had actually hit lefties better than righties prior to 2021. And some of his home runs showed jaw dropping raw power. I'm not proclaiming him to be a ML regular, but there's enough potential that you don't risk losing him over guys like Kriske or Krehbiel. And despite the OF depth, a lot of that depth is not near the majors, other than Stowers. If we trade Mullins and/or Santander, Neustrom could have value for us until better prospects rise through the system. And I do think he's a guy who will be drafted if he's exposed. It's always better to lean to the side of skepticism when evaluating prospects who have holes in their game, so I'm not jumping on the Neustrom train or anything, but exposing him is an unnecessary risk given our 40 man this offseason. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

I disagree on Neustrom. His numbers against lefties were clearly a red flag this year, but he had actually hit lefties better than righties prior to 2021. And some of his home runs showed jaw dropping raw power. I'm not proclaiming him to be a ML regular, but there's enough potential that you don't risk losing him over guys like Kriske or Krehbiel. And despite the OF depth, a lot of that depth is not near the majors, other than Stowers. If we trade Mullins and/or Santander, Neustrom could have value for us until better prospects rise through the system. And I do think he's a guy who will be drafted if he's exposed. It's always better to lean to the side of skepticism when evaluating prospects who have holes in their game, so I'm not jumping on the Neustrom train or anything, but exposing him is an unnecessary risk given our 40 man this offseason. 

There are multiple ways of looking at this.

One is what you are saying.

Two is what Tony us saying…IE, he won’t be claimed, so no need to use the spot if you don’t have to.  And if we need his spot later, we then expose him further.

In this case, I tend to agree with both. By that I mean, I think it’s unlikely he’s claimed but because some kind of a small chance does exist, I would protect him because what the hell else are we keeping over him?

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

IDK, Tony. Perhaps you’re right. He is still a better value than Stewart. He is a better defender, maybe a tick below average corner OF, and has considerably more power and he is starting to get it. The only thing Stewart does better is walk. Neustrom is 3 years younger.

I get the depth and the fade over the last month at AAA, but I don’t want to give away LH power bats like Neustrom. He could be the first to hit the warehouse on the fly. He improved dramatically in 2021 with Fuller in AA. We’ll see.

Stewart in the minors: .255/.358/.432

Neustrom: .261/.330/.419

Not a ton to choose from there.  Neustrom did come on somewhat this year but his 2021.line (.258/.344/.446) is virtually the same as Stewart’s career line, and Stewart did pretty well in AA (.279/.381/.485) and AAA (.255/.353/.444).   

From what I’ve read, Neustrom is probably a little better defensively, but he’s still average to below average.   

I think it’s pretty much a toss-up whether Neustrom will be slightly better or slightly worse than Stewart.   Gun to my head, I’d bet on Stewart, but I’d rather find more interesting players to bet on.  

 

[UMDTerrapins]

 

[interloper]

One thing is 100% certain: Elias will do something re: the Rule 5 protection that will piss someone off here. He's usually good for a surprise or two when it comes to Rule 5 protection. 

[Aristotelian]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Stewart in the minors: .255/.358/.432

Neustrom: .261/.330/.419

Not a ton to choose from there.  Neustrom did come on somewhat this year but his 2021.line (.258/.344/.446) is virtually the same as Stewart’s career line, and Stewart did pretty well in AA (.279/.381/.485) and AAA (.255/.353/.444).   

From what I’ve read, Neustrom is probably a little better defensively, but he’s still average to below average.   

I think it’s pretty much a toss-up whether Neustrom will be slightly better or slightly worse than Stewart.   Gun to my head, I’d bet on Stewart, but I’d rather find more interesting players to bet on.  

 

Stewart will be arb eligible a lot sooner.

[UMDTerrapins]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There are multiple ways of looking at this.

One is what you are saying.

Two is what Tony us saying…IE, he won’t be claimed, so no need to use the spot if you don’t have to.  And if we need his spot later, we then expose him further.

In this case, I tend to agree with both. By that I mean, I think it’s unlikely he’s claimed but because some kind of a small chance does exist, I would protect him because what the hell else are we keeping over him?

While I get that argument, we played the "we don't think he'll get claimed" game last year and lost. And I'm still pissed about it because it was an unnecessary risk. We're going to have to make more room later this offseason, but there's enough room to keep Neustrom. 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

If you want to keep Neustrom over Stewart, have at it because I don't think Stewart is very good. The thing is, there is no reason to put Neustrom on the 40-man because it's very doubtful he gets selected. He's just not the kind of player that gets taken because there's not a ton of upside and he doesn't bring speed or defensive value.  Also, his low LD rate  (14.8% at AAA), pull approach and ground ball tendency really concerns me at the major league level. 

He's a 40 level player with a 45 upside as a platoon guy who brings a little pop. 

This is fair, I had him being protected but in light of all this I could see him being left off and going unclaimed. Unless there's really a OF-desperate team out there who wants to bring in a bunch of guys for ST. In which case, it's likely he gets sent back anyway. 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Stewart will be arb eligible a lot sooner.

Which do you think is more likely:

1.   Stewart is claimed by another team if he is DFA; or

2.  Neustrom is claimed by another team, and not returned, if he is left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft.

I think it’s more likely that Stewart would be claimed.   Hence, I would not DFA Stewart to make room for Neustrom right now.   I realize there are other guys we could DFA if room is needed.

 

[NCRaven]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Which do you think is more likely:

1.   Stewart is claimed by another team if he is DFA; or

2.  Neustrom is claimed by another team, and not returned, if he is left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft.

I think it’s more likely that Stewart would be claimed.   Hence, I would not DFA Stewart to make room for Neustrom right now.   I realize there are other guys we could DFA if room is needed.

 

Agreed.  If we acquire a better player than Stewart by any means - trade, free agent, promotion from the minors, waiver claim, or Rule 5 - I would drop DJ in a heartbeat.  But, I wouldn't DFA him now to protect a player that is less likely to be claimed/drafted.

[Hazmat]

I remember in 2018 I was hoping the O's would take Josh VanMeter in the Rule V draft.  He went undrafted.  

In 2018, VanMeter posted a .791 OPS between AA & AAA at age 23.  Neustrom posted a .790 OPS between AA & AAA this past year but at 24 years of age.

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Stewart in the minors: .255/.358/.432

Neustrom: .261/.330/.419

Not a ton to choose from there.  Neustrom did come on somewhat this year but his 2021.line (.258/.344/.446) is virtually the same as Stewart’s career line, and Stewart did pretty well in AA (.279/.381/.485) and AAA (.255/.353/.444).   

From what I’ve read, Neustrom is probably a little better defensively, but he’s still average to below average.   

I think it’s pretty much a toss-up whether Neustrom will be slightly better or slightly worse than Stewart.   Gun to my head, I’d bet on Stewart, but I’d rather find more interesting players to bet on.  

 

When you’re comparing two guys who are both terrible, who cares?