Fangraphs’ Longenhagen’s take on the O’s Rule 5 decisions and waiver claims

[Frobby]

Baltimore Orioles foundational piece D.L. Hall (three plus pitches, below-average control) was the big name added to the team’s 40-man, while several players acquired via trade during the long rebuild — contact-oriented utility man Terrin Vavra (acquired from Colorado in the Mychal Givens trade), starter/relief line slider monster Kyle Bradish (Angels, Dylan Bundytrade), low-slot lefty Kevin Smith (Mets, Miguel Castro) — were also added. Vavra and former high-profile amateur prospect Lucius Fox(claimed from Kansas City) both bring feel for contact, speed, and defensive versatility to the club, and Fox becomes the second-best shortstop defender on the 40-man after Richie Martin.

Also added in Baltimore were Felix Bautista(elite arm strength, fringe curveball, 20 control — take cover) and Fall Leaguer Logan Gillaspie, each likely up/down relievers in 2022. Gillaspie’s fastball sat 93 with Milwaukee in 2019; they released him and he signed a minor league deal with the Orioles. He had a two-tick bump in 2021, and is now sitting 92-96 with a bevy of other pitches, the best of which is an above-average changeup.

Baltimore currently has no catchers on their 40-man. At some point early in 2022, Adley Rutschman is likely to be added, but most teams carry three 40-man catchers, and the free agent pool isn’t exactly flush with good ones. With their current 40-man at 39, look for Baltimore to outright more members off the bottom of their roster at some point this offseason in pursuit of catching, and/or to take a Rule 5 shot or two (perhaps Blake Hunt?). Adam Hall is the highest-profile Oriole minor leaguer not to be added. In addition to being skill/role redundant with Vavra and Fox, he’s more raw than those two and far less likely to stick if indeed he’s taken in the Rule 5.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/breaking-down-the-40-man-roster-deadline/

[HowAboutThat]

If he thinks fox is the second best shortstop defender after Richie Martin, either fox must be really awful, or we must not have any short stops in the fold.

[HowAboutThat]

If Bautista really has such bad control I’m curious why he was protected.

[Jagwar]

I like how he gave Bautista "20 control". Classic. 

[scOtt]

3 hours ago, Philip said:

If Bautista really has such bad control I’m curious why he was protected.

Can't teach 101 mph...

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, scOtt said:

Can't teach 101 mph...

Exactly an arm like that and the O’s still have a number of prospects that don’t have to protected on the 40 man roster yet. Protecting Bautista is the right move. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

If he thinks fox is the second best shortstop defender after Richie Martin, either fox must be really awful, or we must not have any short stops in the fold.

I hope it’s his opinion being off as opposed the Orioles shortstop situation being that bad.

Martin had the reputation of having a really good glove, but we haven’t seen it with the Orioles. 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, scOtt said:

Can't teach 101 mph...

Also @OsFanSinceThe80sWe’ve had this conversation about Tanner Scott, And it remains true that it does no good if you can throw 100 miles an hour if you have no idea where it’s going.

And Tanner Scott, with a 0.0 WAR and a 5.17 ERA, remains the most frustrating pitcher in the system, because throwing 97-ish isn’t enough.

Having said that, sure, if you want to protect Bautista and see how he does, fine. I’m not going to hold my breath, but we shall see.

[HowAboutThat]

55 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I hope it’s his opinion being off as opposed the Orioles shortstop situation being that bad.

Martin had the reputation of having a really good glove, but we haven’t seen it with the Orioles. 

I really like Martin, and during his first year with us, I saw him make some really fantastic plays, but you’re right, he doesn’t seem to be cutting the mustard overall.

[InsideCoroner]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

I really like Martin, and during his first year with us, I saw him make some really fantastic plays, but you’re right, he doesn’t seem to be cutting the mustard overall.

The play in September where Martin (at short) failed to cover the second base bag — on a routine ground ball to the second baseman, runner on first, one out — put me off far more than any gaffe he’s ever made with his glove or arm.

[sportsfan8703]

12 hours ago, Philip said:

If he thinks fox is the second best shortstop defender after Richie Martin, either fox must be really awful, or we must not have any short stops in the fold.

Probably a fair take by a national writer. Sure Mateo and Fox seem like they have all the tools, but they’re unknowns. Martin is still carrying that defensive reputation since the Rule 5 draft. 
 

I’m excited that we’re picking up guys like Mateo and Fox. Both former top 100 prospects. Both still young. Mateo 26. Fox only 24. Both have a lot of tools, versatility and speed. Both blocked by other MLB options or prospects. 

[CharmCityHokie]

8 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Probably a fair take by a national writer. Sure Mateo and Fox seem like they have all the tools, but they’re unknowns. Martin is still carrying that defensive reputation since the Rule 5 draft. 
 

I’m excited that we’re picking up guys like Mateo and Fox. Both former top 100 prospects. Both still young. Mateo 26. Fox only 24. Both have a lot of tools, versatility and speed. Both blocked by other MLB options or prospects. 

I do sometimes laugh to myself when I think of years past when we were picking up guys like Jason DuBois, Jon Knott and JR House. The Orioles really love finding some specific trend and pushing all in on it. 

That being said, I approve of the toolsy athletic trend over the AAAA thumpers. 

[Tony-OH]

20 hours ago, Philip said:

If Bautista really has such bad control I’m curious why he was protected.

He doesn't have 20 control, that's an ill-informed comment. I've watch him a lot this year. He occasionally can cut loose a crazy wild pitch, but for the most part he's around the strike zone. His split is his best offspeed pitch so all of this really seems ill-informed. 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He doesn't have 20 control, that's an ill-informed comment. I've watch him a lot this year. He occasionally can cut loose a crazy wild pitch, but for the most part he's around the strike zone. His split is his best offspeed pitch so all of this really seems ill-informed. 

You look at Bautista’s walk rate (5.8 per 9 this year), and it’s pretty high.   20 control was probably a flippant comment made during a chat, but your 40 grade also seems pretty generous.   

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You look at Bautista’s walk rate (5.8 per 9 this year), and it’s pretty high.   20 control was probably a flippant comment made during a chat, but your 40 grade also seems pretty generous.   

I don't know how to explain it but he doesn't throw a ton of non competitive pitches. Most of the time hitters are taking close pitches called balls because they can't hit it anyways. The thing is, you can walk 5.8 per nine when nobody can hit you. Now will that work in the big leagues, that we'll need to see, but I'm telling you, he's got better control than Tanner Scott. 

Now Command? Eh, that' a different story, but at his velocity, command is rare.