Trade Bait 2022

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

Only Mountcastle has an OPS+ higher than 116 this season.

And?

Would you be excited if the O's signed a FA to that deal for seasons 2023-2025?

I'd be having Trumbo flashbacks.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, sevastras said:

Theoretically, Mancini may have more value staying if he helps get them to a wc. The increase in attendance leading up to that may have more cash value then what little he returns in a trade. Just a thought, not advocating one way or the other at this point. A month ago I was saying trade him and Santander but now I am kind of liking this possibility of making the playoffs even though I doubt they would go far. But, it’s baseball and that is why they play the games. 

Is Mancini going to drive enough ticket sales to even pay for the difference between his salary over someone making the league minimum?

[sevastras]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Is Mancini going to drive enough ticket sales to even pay for the difference between his salary over someone making the league minimum?

No, I didn’t think that part of it through. 

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And?

Would you be excited if the O's signed a FA to that deal for seasons 2023-2025?

I'd be having Trumbo flashbacks.

Excited? Not really.

I'd be fine with it though. It is not that much money when so many young guys on the roster will be pretty cheap for those seasons.

Trumbo's contract isn't the reason the team stunk from '17 - '19

[waroriole]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Probably nothing of consequence.

But possibly a piece that helps the team for years to come.

Which is better odds than the nothing they get if they don't trade him.

Of course it could also cost a shot at the playoffs if they trade him. 

[PHRESH]

42 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Is it emotional reasons if you just don’t trade him and you’re in wildcard contention? What do you think Mancini brings back in a trade?

Meh, I'd just call it honoring a contract.

[DirtyBird]

2023 Lineup w/ Mancini extension w/ contract status.

OF - Mullins (L) Arb 1
C/DH - Adley (S) TC
OF - Hays (R) Arb 1
1B/DH - Mountcastle (R) TC
OF/DH - Stowers (L) TC
1B/DH - Mancini (R) 3 Year/$36 Million
SS/3B - Henderson (L) TC
SS/3B - Westburg (R) TC
2B - Vavra (L) TC

[DrungoHazewood]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is Mancini going to drive enough ticket sales to even pay for the difference between his salary over someone making the league minimum?

To quantify this, let's say Mancini would sign an extension for $12M a year over league minimum.  If you assume $40 a ticket that would be 300,000 additional ticket sales a year to cover his salary. If it was $15M and $30 a ticket that would require half a million tickets. 

I think it would be challenging to tie any attendance changes to almost any player transactions.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Of course it could also cost a shot at the playoffs if they trade him. 

What do you think the likely final win total for the Orioles is this year?  With or without Mancini.  My guess is that they're going to finish at least 10 games out of the final wildcard spot. It may be unwise to make long-term decisions on the heels of an 8-game winning streak for a team that was projected to 65-ish wins preseason.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

I would love to see a poll on how the board thinks about the trade deadline. Buyers/Sellers/Combo (I think the latter is what most want) and maybe even listing individual players to be traded. I am not allowed to do polls because I am in time out:)

[ScGO's]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

How excited would the fans here be if the O's signed a 31-year-old 1B/DH/emergency corner outfielder with a career 116 OPS+ to a 3/30 deal and his name wasn't Mancini?

 

This is a great great point.  This is essentially the Trumbo deal.  I love Trey, but its time to trade him if the fit matches his value, which may not be as much as we think.

Quick question. If Mancini does finish the season with the O's then walks, is there still Qualifying Offers and draft pick compensation or did MLB drop that?

[MurphDogg]

Wasn't sure where to put this, and I didn't think that it merited its own thread, but it is always interesting to see what the trade value is of a comp pick.

Fangraphs has Waters as the Braves #10 prospect with a 40+ FV and Hoffman as the #16 prospect with a 40 FV. Orioles comp would be something like Drew Rom and Hudson Haskin.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

This is a great great point.  This is essentially the Trumbo deal.  I love Trey, but its time to trade him if the fit matches his value, which may not be as much as we think.

Quick question. If Mancini does finish the season with the O's then walks, is there still Qualifying Offers and draft pick compensation or did MLB drop that?

July 25th we find out.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

Wasn't sure where to put this, and I didn't think that it merited its own thread, but it is always interesting to see what the trade value is of comp pick.

I think more of the value is tied into the larger bonus pool than in the actual pick.

But yea, love to see them traded.

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think more of the value is tied into the larger bonus pool than in the actual pick.

But yea, love to see them traded.

Of course that plays into it.

Would you trade Rom and Haskin and I am guessing a 35+ FV third piece for the #35 pick and its $2.2M worth of slot value?