Trade Bait 2022

[ScGO's]

What sort of deal does Elias have to have in place to send Hays to a contender before the deadline? A Top 100? 2-3 Organizational Top 10s? 3-5 total prospects?

Hays is becoming a 5 tool guy. His arm is a cannon, He's a capable CF playing GG level Corner OF.  He runs well, but doesn't steal bags much. 25-30 HR power is possible and the current OPS+ is 133

However, I almost feel like he needs to show other teams that 1) he can be healthy for a couple seasons in a row, which I think if he plays 140+ games this year, he proves, and 2) he can put up consistent numbers, which he may need to show with a strong finish this year and a good first half next year. 

If he shows this, he could get the return I discussed above. I guess my question is, would a team give that up now?

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

43 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

What sort of deal does Elias have to have in place to send Hays to a contender before the deadline? A Top 100? 2-3 Organizational Top 10s? 3-5 total prospects?

Hays is becoming a 5 tool guy. His arm is a cannon, He's a capable CF playing GG level Corner OF.  He runs well, but doesn't steal bags much. 25-30 HR power is possible and the current OPS+ is 133

However, I almost feel like he needs to show other teams that 1) he can be healthy for a couple seasons in a row, which I think if he plays 140+ games this year, he proves, and 2) he can put up consistent numbers, which he may need to show with a strong finish this year and a good first half next year. 

If he shows this, he could get the return I discussed above. I guess my question is, would a team give that up now?

Why are we trading our best players?

[ScGO's]

On 6/14/2022 at 1:51 PM, Gentile4 said:

In a manner of speaking. I'll just leave it at that. 

Anthony Santander is my new favorite player

[PHRESH]

Adley has a home run now. I'll bet he could net something good in a trade. 

[Sports Guy]

Marlins are reportedly going after Laureano.  They want a CFer.

Really need to work with them on a Mullins trade and try and get some of that young starting pitching that they have and we need.

[sportsfan8703]

I was reading the MLBTR most recent chat transcript and their writer called Mancini and Wilson Contreras the two best bats available for this trade deadline. 
 

We’ve been basically a .500 team since our 6-14 start. I don’t see us blowing up the bullpen for that. I only see Mancini, Santander, Odor, and maybe Lyles getting traded. Lyles is a maybe because of salary and performance. 

[Aristotelian]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Marlins are reportedly going after Laureano.  They want a CFer.

Really need to work with them on a Mullins trade and try and get some of that young starting pitching that they have and we need.

Will be interesting to follow and see if they get anywhere near the return we'd be hoping for Mullins. Laureano has one less year of control and maybe Marlins are also looking to get a discount for PED risk. 

[Orioles0615]

On 6/16/2022 at 12:06 AM, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Why are we trading our best players?

Because many people are infatuated  with prospects and want to rebuild forever and don't realize the end goal is to win the world series

[OrangeTurtle]

1 hour ago, Orioles0615 said:

Because many people are infatuated  with prospects and want to rebuild forever and don't realize the end goal is to win the world series

Or perhaps people understand there are still a lot of holes on this team and it's an uphill climb in the ALE. I'm personally fine with trading both Hays AND Mullins (if we get value back) and letting McKenna play CF until Cowser or Mystery Draft Pick is ready for CF.

We need as much depth as possible to deal with prospect volatility and injuries. The system is deep, but not quite there yet, IMO.

 

[oriole]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Marlins are reportedly going after Laureano.  They want a CFer.

Really need to work with them on a Mullins trade and try and get some of that young starting pitching that they have and we need.

Selling low on Mullins seems like a great idea!

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, oriole said:

Selling low on Mullins seems like a great idea!

Selling low on him would have been trading him prior to last year.

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

Or perhaps people understand there are still a lot of holes on this team and it's an uphill climb in the ALE. I'm personally fine with trading both Hays AND Mullins (if we get value back) and letting McKenna play CF until Cowser or Mystery Draft Pick is ready for CF.

We need as much depth as possible to deal with prospect volatility and injuries. The system is deep, but not quite there yet, IMO.

 

The system is very close to putting a contending team on the field, probably next year.    Add Grayson, DL Hall, Gunnar, Westburg and Stowers to what the O's already have and that team should give the rest of the division fits.   

The only thing Elias may have to add in the off season is starting pitching.  Grayson, DL, T Wells should be competitive.   Bradish has some work to put movement on his fastball but he averages 95 and has two good off speed pitches.    We will have to see how Kremer does the rest of the season.   That will tell Elias how much he needs to add. Having Means for a half season should help.

Trading Hays for anything less than an overwhelming return seems counterproductive.

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Selling low on him would have been trading him prior to last year.

Mullins has been worth 1.7 rWAR this year, which projects out to 4.2 rWAR for the season.   I don’t see how trading him now would be selling low.   Granted, I think he can do better than .692 OPS/99 OPS+.   But that is still above average for a CF.

I think Elias has some very interesting decisions to make in the next 15 months.  

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Orioles0615 said:

Because many people are infatuated  with prospects and want to rebuild forever and don't realize the end goal is to win the world series

I think it comes down to how realistic you are about where the Orioles stand. Most here are probably viewing the glass as half full. I’m personally concerned about the long term pitching. I don’t believe for a second we have enough SP depth long term. As it stands they can’t afford to miss on Gray-Rod or Hall. And need to start drafting done pitchers. 
 

As much as folks want to hang on to Santander and Mancini they probably aren’t part of the next weekend winner 

I can’t say I blame anyone for wanting to win now. However, I don’t expect Elias to short change the process. When he took over the tear down had been done leaving little to trade off. I think we can all agree we lost the Machado deal and didn’t have much else that was valuable that turned into anything.

 

Just my 2 cents

 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, OrangeTurtle said:

Or perhaps people understand there are still a lot of holes on this team and it's an uphill climb in the ALE. I'm personally fine with trading both Hays AND Mullins (if we get value back) and letting McKenna play CF until Cowser or Mystery Draft Pick is ready for CF.

We need as much depth as possible to deal with prospect volatility and injuries. The system is deep, but not quite there yet, IMO.

 

The O's had the #1 farm system when Adley was promoted.  How much better does the farm system have to get than #1?