Ryan Mountcastle 2022

[Just Regular]

He's still a milestone player for me as the first Oriole I think Elias thinks has a projection of "durably good" (with apologies to Means and Mullins), and no matter how bad his Swing Decisions are because boy can he hit.    He mentioned in a podcast last year Riley Greene went to his high school, and while Greene will run circles around him with the glove, hopefully Mountcastle won't let go of the Hitting Championship Belt easily.

Here's some happy talk from one armchair analyst:

The mostly negative narrative is that he strikes out way too much and will be impacted negatively by Baltimore’s decision to move the fences back in left field. I see a 25-year-old masher with room for growth who recovered after an awful April and posted comparable stats to Pete Alonso from May 1 on (no, I’m not saying he’ll do what Alonso will do). Also, Mountcastle isn’t a straight pull hitter and most of the home runs he hit to left and left center were bombs.

[joelala]

Will Mountcastle have a better career than Mancini? I think that’s an interesting question.

[Pickles]

13 minutes ago, joelala said:

Will Mountcastle have a better career than Mancini? I think that’s an interesting question.

Well, factoring in the lost year of his prime Mancini endured, I'd take Mountcastle for the over.

[Aristotelian]

11 minutes ago, joelala said:

Will Mountcastle have a better career than Mancini? I think that’s an interesting question.

So far career OPS is similar, .804 to .812 slightly in favor of Mountcastle. However, if you exclude Mountcastle's first half last year he may be something more like a .900 OPS guy. Neither has great OBP. If I had to guess, seems like Mountcastle is trending up whereas Mancini is already starting to trend down so I would go with Mountcastle. 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

So far career OPS is similar, .804 to .812 slightly in favor of Mountcastle. However, if you exclude Mountcastle's first half last year he may be something more like a .900 OPS guy. Neither has great OBP. If I had to guess, seems like Mountcastle is trending up whereas Mancini is already starting to trend down so I would go with Mountcastle. 

Why would you exclude half of the only full season he has played?  Why not exclude the second half of the year?

[maybenxtyr]

I think there's some room for growth with Mountcastle. He'll never be a guy that walks a lot but his power is legit. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a couple of .850 seasons mixed in.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why would you exclude half of the only full season he has played?  Why not exclude the second half of the year?

No real reason. It is possible that something was going on with him physically or with his swing that was resolved. The fact that 2020 was .878 and he is scorching hot this spring gives me some reason for hope. But I acknowledge it is probably more likely that prolonged slumps are part of his overall production. Not predicting either way, just making the case for upside whereas I think Mancini has a narrower range of outcomes. 

[jamalshw]

I think Mountcastle gets nearly all of his ABs this year in the 2-4 spots in the order, but ultimately (unless he can improve the OBP and limit the Ks a bit) I see him as more of a 4-5 hitter. I'd love to have the options in the 2-3 spots to allow him to be a bit lower in the order. He's got good power and will improve some, but I'd like to have guys with a bit better OBP higher in the order. 

[Moose Milligan]

33 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

So far career OPS is similar, .804 to .812 slightly in favor of Mountcastle. However, if you exclude Mountcastle's first half last year he may be something more like a .900 OPS guy. Neither has great OBP. If I had to guess, seems like Mountcastle is trending up whereas Mancini is already starting to trend down so I would go with Mountcastle. 

Yeah, let's exclude all the bad at bats.  

I bet Ted Williams hit .500 the year he actually hit .406 if you subtract all the times he made an out! 

[maybenxtyr]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, let's exclude all the bad at bats.  

I bet Ted Williams hit .500 the year he actually hit .406 if you subtract all the times he made an out! 

Ummm... probably closer to 1.000. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

No real reason. It is possible that something was going on with him physically or with his swing that was resolved. The fact that 2020 was .878 and he is scorching hot this spring gives me some reason for hope. But I acknowledge it is probably more likely that prolonged slumps are part of his overall production. Not predicting either way, just making the case for upside whereas I think Mancini has a narrower range of outcomes. 

He is a relatively free swinger who doesn’t walk much.  He is very similar to Adam Jones but at first.  Good player.  Glad we have him but no need to make him out to be more than he is.

 

 

[LookinUp]

Age and level are pretty similar. Mountcastle has youth now and hopefully won't lose time to another Covid shutdown or a bad disease, so I'd wager he ends up with more value.

I also think he's a little better overall, but that's hard to be certain of at this point.

Very similar profiles as players. Not that it's much to quantify, but I'd rather dump Mountcastle into the outfield than I would Mancini.

[ChosenOne21]

I've done the comparison before, but Mountcastle is basically Mark Trumbo, IMO. That's fine as long as you don't break the bank for him

[Aristotelian]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He is a relatively free swinger who doesn’t walk much.  He is very similar to Adam Jones but at first.  Good player.  Glad we have him but no need to make him out to be more than he is.

 

 

 

27 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, let's exclude all the bad at bats.  

I bet Ted Williams hit .500 the year he actually hit .406 if you subtract all the times he made an out! 

You are both overstating what I said. I don't disagree. Was just stating the upside case. 

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Age and level are pretty similar. Mountcastle has youth now and hopefully won't lose time to another Covid shutdown or a bad disease, so I'd wager he ends up with more value.

I also think he's a little better overall, but that's hard to be certain of at this point.

Very similar profiles as players. Not that it's much to quantify, but I'd rather dump Mountcastle into the outfield than I would Mancini.

Both are players you like to have…until they get expensive. Mountcastle should be a trade candidate in 2-3 years.  Hopefully he is hitting well and you can trade him for a good package.