Colton Cowser 2022

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

Are you suggesting that there are events that can transpire in the development of a player that might injure their confidence, and either temporarily or permanently effect their performance?

 

The devil you say.

Not really.

Some other poster suggested that sending him down might help his confidence, I just think that if anything, it would be detrimental.

My stance that for the majority of players stuff like that isn't a factor, hasn't changed.

 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not really.

Some other poster suggested that sending him down might help his confidence, I just think that if anything, it would be detrimental.

My stance that for the majority of players stuff like that isn't a factor, hasn't changed.

 

LOL

[Tony-OH]

22 hours ago, O-Arm36 said:

I was at the game today and something weird is going on. That first at bat was deeply concerning. He worked the count 3-0 and then swung through back to back 93-94 mph fastballs in the zone. Inexplicable. 

Also he looks extremely frustrated so he is most definitely pressing. I just can't imagine he has swung through 3-0 and 3-1 meatballs with his swing and approach. 

Yeah, I've noticed a lot more swing and miss this year with him on fastballs in fastball counts. It just seems like he's not seeing he ball well.

[Brooks The Great]

Cowser fell out of Baseball America's Top 100 list in their most recent update. There are lots of posters on this board who will say that you can't evaluate draft picks for years, but the fact of the matter is that every MLB team has scouts and analysts who's job it is to evaluate players in real time. Same with publications like BA, BP, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, and many others. And I like keeping track of the O's and other teams' top prospects. 

Cowser is not looking like a good pick right now. That can - and most likely will - change. But I really disliked the pick on draft night, and I like it even less today. Take the most talented player you can with your first round pick when you're rebuilding.  Hope CC can turn things around. 

[RZNJ]

Well Brooks, I have a lot of questions for you. How do you define most talented?  Best tools?  Best player?  How do you know the Orioles didn't consider Cowser the most talented?  How do you know he isn't the most talented?  On draft day he was considered a plus hitter, an above average runner, an outfielder with a chance of staying in CF, with power potential.  

[Jammer7]

Cowser’s start doesn’t have me concerned yet. We don’t know what’s going on. Is there a swing change, an injury he is playing through, etc…we don’t know. The player he showed to be after being drafted was not a mirage. Sometimes these guys go through ups and downs, that is what player development is. Most of these guys are going to fail a lot to reach success. Makes me appreciate the rapid rise of Stowers, Westburg and Henderson in 2021 all the more.

I honestly could not care any less about what top 100 lists he is on at this moment. 

 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

1 hour ago, Brooks The Great said:

Cowser fell out of Baseball America's Top 100 list in their most recent update. There are lots of posters on this board who will say that you can't evaluate draft picks for years, but the fact of the matter is that every MLB team has scouts and analysts who's job it is to evaluate players in real time. Same with publications like BA, BP, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, and many others. And I like keeping track of the O's and other teams' top prospects. 

Cowser is not looking like a good pick right now. That can - and most likely will - change. But I really disliked the pick on draft night, and I like it even less today. Take the most talented player you can with your first round pick when you're rebuilding.  Hope CC can turn things around. 

[celery]

A lot of hot takes here.. Prospects struggle. It'll be good to see how he adjusts.

[seak05]

10 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Cowser fell out of Baseball America's Top 100 list in their most recent update. There are lots of posters on this board who will say that you can't evaluate draft picks for years, but the fact of the matter is that every MLB team has scouts and analysts who's job it is to evaluate players in real time. Same with publications like BA, BP, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, and many others. And I like keeping track of the O's and other teams' top prospects. 

Cowser is not looking like a good pick right now. That can - and most likely will - change. But I really disliked the pick on draft night, and I like it even less today. Take the most talented player you can with your first round pick when you're rebuilding.  Hope CC can turn things around. 

The same Baseball America people rated him highly coming into the draft and prior to the start of the year. Now it's possible that everyone in the industry was wrong, and he was exposed against higher level players. But just keep in mind that those scouts etc had him as a top prospect a month ago. 

When drafting, or making any decision, though you can only make the decision based on the information available at the time. In hindsight, Trout clearly should've been 1:1 

[Just Regular]

I've discovered recently Fangraphs you can poke around and get some batted ball data on Minors.    Right now it is no more flyballs, and about 12% of last year's line drives have become more ground balls.

Here is Cowser 2021 with a Delmarva Highest GB/FB ratio.    ~41% GB overall

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=9&stats=bat&qual=100&type=2&team=159&season=2021&seasonEnd=2021&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=6,1

Here is Cowser 2022 with "only" an Aberdeen runner-up to Collin Burns.   ~53% GB overall

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=14&stats=bat&qual=50&type=2&team=48&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=6,1

I could honestly see it either way if they are trying to do the Yandy Diaz-Kelvin Gutierrez type tinkering to retrain the batter to get the ball in the air more as much as it is feasible with nurture not nature, or just letting him be himself.   Way more worrisome if they are letting him be himself and these are the results.   

[btdart20]

It's fair to move him down.  He has struggled.  A few of our guys have struggled and a few have done really well so far this season.  It happens every year. 

Cowser's OBP is still a very respectable .370 this year (Sally League average is .338).  The floor is still solid since he knows the strike zone and has good speed.  He's 22 which is league average.  He's a first rounder, so we're expecting more (rightfully).  To reach his upside, he has to maintain the bat control (his strength historically) while adding a little power.  He has not done either really well in the short sample so far.  Based on his interviews, he sounds like a grounded/mature young man.  If anyone has the mental fortitude, it's a guy like him.  It's just connecting the mental with the physical at this point (easier said than done). 

My take:  It does seem like he's changing his approach.  Significantly less Oppo% even against higher level pitching this year.  Combine that with the GB/FB ratios, I bet he's trying to tap into some power and is rolling over and swinging through the better off-speed and breaking-balls this year.

[interloper]

5 hours ago, celery said:

A lot of hot takes here.. Prospects struggle. It'll be good to see how he adjusts.

I kind of love this extremely luke-warm and reasonable take. 

[celery]

44 minutes ago, interloper said:

I kind of love this extremely luke-warm and reasonable take. 

I am nothing if not extremely luke-warm (and occasionally reasonable)

[Tony-OH]

7 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I've discovered recently Fangraphs you can poke around and get some batted ball data on Minors.    Right now it is no more flyballs, and about 12% of last year's line drives have become more ground balls.

Here is Cowser 2021 with a Delmarva Highest GB/FB ratio.    ~41% GB overall

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=9&stats=bat&qual=100&type=2&team=159&season=2021&seasonEnd=2021&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=6,1

Here is Cowser 2022 with "only" an Aberdeen runner-up to Collin Burns.   ~53% GB overall

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=14&stats=bat&qual=50&type=2&team=48&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=6,1

I could honestly see it either way if they are trying to do the Yandy Diaz-Kelvin Gutierrez type tinkering to retrain the batter to get the ball in the air more as much as it is feasible with nurture not nature, or just letting him be himself.   Way more worrisome if they are letting him be himself and these are the results.   

I was following his GB rate because of the slow start and yes, it's not a good sign that he's striking out a ton and hitting more ground balls. it could be just some kind of funk, but the one draw back to drafting kids with great numbers from small conferences is that the talent he was facing was not very good. 

He hit better over his last 10 games but the K rate is still way too high. 

[interloper]

1 for 3 with a walk and K last night.