Colton Cowser 2022

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Lawler cost $1.7 more than Cowser.   That’s quite a lot of spare change to be able to spend later.  Let’s say you think Lawler is the BPA but Cowser is next on your board and you think the gap between them is modest.   In that case, saving $1.7 mm to spend later makes sense.    If you think the margin between the two is significant, then you probably should take the BPA.   That’s how I see it.   
 

Right now Cowser isn’t playing like a no. 6 pick who got bumped up a spot.   He’s looking quite mediocre.  But judging that on 26 games isn’t smart.   

Well, as I showed, you don’t usually see a great ROI on those overslot guys, so I would much rather just take the better player with the higher ceiling at the more premium position..who is also several more years younger.

Lets put it another way.  Arizona calls today and says i will deal you Lawlar for Cowser and Willems.  Are you saying no?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, as I showed, you don’t usually see a great ROI on those overslot guys, so I would much rather just take the better player with the higher ceiling at the more premium position..who is also several more years younger.

Lets put it another way.  Arizona calls today and says i will deal you Lawlar for Cowser and Willems.  Are you saying no?

Not today, but that’s with hindsight and based on what we’ve seen so far this year.   Also, $1.7 mm buys more than Willems.  

[Just Regular]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

2M is basically 1/4 of a win.  If you think he’s the better player, you pay the extra.  

I think you have to count draft millions different as they are an (even more) artificially limited pool of money.   #CohenRule

BPA is just $$$, but McKinsey-ites and hedge fund managers only care about $$$/WAR.

It'll be easier around here if Jones proves to be as blue a chip as Adley, IBM and Coca-Cola.   Elias' judgment is Austin Martin and Jordan Lawlar weren't that.

Friedman left the Rays for the Dodgers in October 2014.   With Andrew Friedman's judgment and the Dodgers cash, Yusniel Diaz eluding the net of cost control however he did in November 2015 resulted in Andrew Friedman's team voluntarily utilizing $30mm to get him.    100% tax rates weren't enough to get them to regulate themselves so harder pools became necessary.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not today, but that’s with hindsight and based on what we’ve seen so far this year.   Also, $1.7 mm buys more than Willems.  

It does but so what?  Again, people act like you can’t go overslot if you pay slot or even slightly overslot with your first pick.  It literally happens every draft for every team.  
 

The Os easily could still have gotten Rhodes, who I believe was the only other overslot of any real number in last years draft.

[geschinger]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

2M is basically 1/4 of a win.  If you think he’s the better player, you pay the extra.  

It's not about the money, that presumably is (hopefully) being spent either way and I think it was in 2021.

What has a better chance of working out better for the organization. 

Colton Cowser, John Rhodes and Creed Willems 

or

Jordan Lawlar and whoever they could have picked instead of Rhodes and Wllems for at or under slot. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, geschinger said:

It's not about the money, that presumably is (hopefully) being spent either way and I think it was in 2021.

What has a better chance of working out better for the organization. 

Colton Cowser, John Rhodes and Creed Willems 

or

Jordan Lawlar and whoever they could have picked instead of Rhodes and Wllems for at or under slot. 

Again they could have still had Rhodes but in the scenario you said, I’m taking Lawlar and whoever else…easily.

Very few players drafted ever turn out to be anything, especially after R1.  So I’m taking the better talent at the more premium position and who is far younger and every single person here, if the Os took Lawlar, would say the same thing right now.

And again, I’m good with the Cowser pick over anyone else..just as I was good with Kjerstad over anyone but Veen (If they wanted to go P, I would have gone Meyer but I never felt they would and I agreed with them).

The Orioles are purposely losing games and the only advantage they get from losing, the draft, and their philosophy is to bunt the guy over instead of going for the big inning.

 

[geschinger]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It does but so what?  Again, people act like you can’t go overslot if you pay slot or even slightly overslot with your first pick.  It literally happens every draft for every team.  
 

The Os easily could still have gotten Rhodes, who I believe was the only other overslot of any real number in last years draft.

The cost of Lawalr wasn't just slightly overslot with your first pick.  His price was signficantly overslot.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

The cost of Lawalr wasn't just slightly overslot with your first pick.  His price was signficantly overslot.

That’s fine.  He got 1M over slot at 6…or 500K over slot at 5.  You don’t know that you have to pay that to get him at 5..but even if you do, it’s worth it and yes, you can still get Rhodes.  And even if you can’t, oh well.

[seak05]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I guess I misunderstood your question.  No, I would always say Lawlar was the better pick.

I think they took Cowser to save money to spend later.  I don’t believe they had Cowser rated higher, just as I don’t believe they had Kjerstad second on their board.  
 

In other words, I don’t think the Os draft BPA.

I mean, I don’t think will ever know how they really had them rated.

That said, even those who had Lawlar rated higher, rated Cowser highly, especially the hit tool. If Cowser was producing up to the expectations that nearly every scout had for him, this discussion would look different. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I mean, I don’t think will ever know how they really had them rated.

That said, even those who had Lawlar rated higher, rated Cowser highly, especially the hit tool. If Cowser was producing up to the expectations that nearly every scout had for him, this discussion would look different. 

Cowser was a borderline top 10 guy, just like Kjerstad.  I think the highest you saw was around 7.  Lawlar was #1 by most and top 5 by everyone iirc.  

[geschinger]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

That’s fine.  He got 1M over slot at 6…or 500K over slot at 5.  You don’t know that you have to pay that to get him at 5..but even if you do, it’s worth it and yes, you can still get Rhodes.  And even if you can’t, oh well.

It's worth if if you have him rated significantly better than Cowser. 

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And again, I’m good with the Cowser pick over anyone else..just as I was good with Kjerstad over anyone but Veen (If they wanted to go P, I would have gone Meyer but I never felt they would and I agreed with them).

The 2020 draft is an easy one to illustrate the choices with so few picks.

Assuming it would have cost at least slot to sign Veen which seems likely -  there wouldn't have been enough overslot to sign Baulmer and Mayo.  Sure they could have passed on Westburg and Haskin trying to find someone way under slot to have the money to take a shot on Baulmer or Mayo.  Obviously if I knew Hestan was going to have the health issue in retrospect Veen would have been preferable but knowing what we knew then I'd be happy if they did it again spreading around the draft pool the way they did.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, geschinger said:

It's worth if if you have him rated significantly better than Cowser. 

The 2020 draft is an easy one to illustrate the choices with so few picks.

Assuming it would have cost at least slot to sign Veen which seems likely -  there wouldn't have been enough overslot to sign Baulmer and Mayo.  Sure they could have passed on Westburg and Haskin trying to find someone way under slot to have the money to take a shot on Baulmer or Mayo.  Obviously if I knew Hestan was going to have the health issue in retrospect Veen would have been preferable but knowing what we knew then I'd be happy if they did it again spreading around the draft pool the way they did.

I’m guessing you could have had Veen, Mayo and Westburg.  They had a lot of money to spread around and Veen may have been an underslot guy since most had him in the 7-10 range.  Maybe you pay more than  Kjerstad but still less than slot.

You go way underslot instead of Haskin and Servideo and maybe you get Baumler too.

[geschinger]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m guessing you could have had Veen, Mayo and Westburg.  They had a lot of money to spread around and Veen may have been an underslot guy since most had him in the 7-10 range.  Maybe you pay more than  Kjerstad but still less than slot.

You go way underslot instead of Haskin and Servideo and maybe you get Baumler too.

Way underslot instead of Haskin and Serviedo may have gotten somewhat close to Mayo but not both Mayo and Baulmer.  But then you also have to take into account the risk factor - if you try to screw the guy you pick instead of Haskin or Servideo by too much and they don't sign, you lose that slot value entirely.  You can't reallocate that elsewhere.  

[RZNJ]

It's a result oriented business.   Results matter.   If you say the Orioles should have drafted Lawlar and Lawlar turns out to be better, I'm sure we'll be reminded of it like we already are on here by a few.   The problem I have is that those same people will never admit they were wrong IF Cowser turns out to be a better ML player than Lawlar.     

So, basically, if I go with Baseball America's draft order and say the Orioles should take the most highly rated guy each time they pick, I can never be wrong, because that was the right decision at the time.    

 

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cowser was a borderline top 10 guy, just like Kjerstad.  I think the highest you saw was around 7.  Lawlar was #1 by most and top 5 by everyone iirc.  

I don’t think Lawlar was no. 1 by most.  But he was ranked ahead of Cowser for sure on the lists I saw.   

I think you can drive yourself crazy with 20/20 hindsight.   Once we draft a guy, I focus on whether that guy meets our expectations and don’t give too much thought to who we might have drafted instead.   Right now, Cowser isn’t meeting expectations.   That’s a bigger concern to me than whether we should have chosen Lawlar instead.   I say it’s a bigger concern only because there are so many permutations of how things turn out if we picked another player instead that I couldn’t keep it all straight in my head.