Colton Cowser 2022

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You have to accept that some fans are just that, fans. They are are always going to think their team is doing things the right way no matter what. I give them the facts and let them then make their excuses. lol

I try to remind myself that this board doesn’t represent all Os fans:) We all want the Os to win or wouldn’t spend so much time here but the endless excuses for obvious missteps is beyond frustrating. Hence, why I feel the need to point them out. 1983 was a long time ago….missing on first round picks/flawed draft strategy is really not going to get us any closer to a championship. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I agree with him if the premise of his argument is that you take BpA.  I believe they passed on a higher player on their board to take a cheaper option to do other stuff later.  I think that’s poor and to me, even if Cowser turns out to be the better player, I will judge the process and not result.

For me, it really has nothing to do with Cowser himself.  It’s the totality of everything that bothers me.

Thank you. I have noticed this argument on here a lot recently. If I am wrong, I say I am wrong (trust me that I am wrong a lot, ask my wife:) but the main point is exactly that: take the bpa (Lawlar in this discussion) and if that doesn’t work, take responsibility. 
 

I liked the Garcia & Martin (and Santander) rule 5 picks A LOT. 2/3 seem to not have worked but not going to be dishonest about my opinion.

Regardless, take bpa. Stop being cute.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

9 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Unfortunately,  even if Lawlar flames it in AA and Cowser becomes an all-star, Nelson will insist it proves nothing and that Lawlar should have been the pick.  He's right and Elias is wrong no matter what happens.  Lol

This is not accurate. My point: take bpa. I have nothing against Elias other than fans seem to be in a semi-cult around him & his performance.  I always appreciate your takes regardless though, you are a great poster. 

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well I said the advantage is the draft…the pool is part of that but again, most of the extra money in a pool is for the higher pick.  
 

When you are in position to take the top talent, you take it.  Hoping that some 4th round HS kid pans out while passing on the better talent early on is poor imo.  That’s where I have the issue.  It’s the whole process, from the losing to gain the draft advantage and then not taking advantage of that advantage (imo) that makes the process an issue and why it can be judged now.

The results definitely matter but just because you jump off a building and live doesn’t mean you keep doing it.

You make things sound so black and white as usual.    Let's use last year's draft as the example.   You think Elias had Lawlar rated higher (he may have) than Cowser and took Cowser anyway so he could go overslot later which turned into Rhodes and Willems.    You can't question Elias' process without know the information he was going on.   Do you really think he passed on a player who he thought was a franchise type SS?

You have already determined that Elias process was wrong/flawed.    The results might back you up in 4-5 years.   They might not.   Either way, you have determined that Elias used the wrong process for making his decision without even knowing what he based his decision on.

It's quite possible that Elias did not think Lawlar was a franchise type SS and had no strong feeling on any one player at #5.   It could be that he loved Cowser at #5 on talent alone.  YOU DON'T KNOW!

The RESULTS will tell us if Elias process worked or didn't work.    You can say a process is a good process or a bad process.    If a process consistently give you good results, then I'd say it's a good process.    If it consistently give you bad results, oh well.    We will see.   Claiming he used a bad process NOW is just acting like you know something when you don't.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

This is not accurate. My point: take bpa. I have nothing against Elias other than fans seem to be in a semi-cult around him & his performance.  I always appreciate your takes regardless though, you are a great poster. 

 

BPA is an oversimplification.   You may think Elias is an idiot.   I do not.    Can he make mistakes?   Did he make a mistake?    Yes and maybe.    He determined that taking Cowser and using the saved money on Rhodes and Willems made more sense than taking Lawlar.    I'm not saying that was the right thing to do.   I'm saying that a lot went into making that decision.   It's not as simple as saying Lawlar was rated higher than Cowser and they should have taken him.    One of the problems I have with you and SG is that even if the results are favorable to Elias you won't give him credit for doing it his way but you're happy to pile blame on him if the results (so far very early results) go against him.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

32 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I try to remind myself that this board doesn’t represent all Os fans:) We all want the Os to win or wouldn’t spend so much time here but the endless excuses for obvious missteps is beyond frustrating. Hence, why I feel the need to point them out. 1983 was a long time ago….missing on first round picks/flawed draft strategy is really not going to get us any closer to a championship. 

You need to first stop saying "this board" as if the entire board feels one way. We have a diverse group of people with different thoughts. You want an echo chamber of fanboys, try out Twiiter.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

You make things sound so black and white as usual.    Let's use last year's draft as the example.   You think Elias had Lawlar rated higher (he may have) than Cowser and took Cowser anyway so he could go overslot later which turned into Rhodes and Willems.    You can't question Elias' process without know the information he was going on.   Do you really think he passed on a player who he thought was a franchise type SS?

You have already determined that Elias process was wrong/flawed.    The results might back you up in 4-5 years.   They might not.   Either way, you have determined that Elias used the wrong process for making his decision without even knowing what he based his decision on.

It's quite possible that Elias did not think Lawlar was a franchise type SS and had no strong feeling on any one player at #5.   It could be that he loved Cowser at #5 on talent alone.  YOU DON'T KNOW!

The RESULTS will tell us if Elias process worked or didn't work.    You can say a process is a good process or a bad process.    If a process consistently give you good results, then I'd say it's a good process.    If it consistently give you bad results, oh well.    We will see.   Claiming he used a bad process NOW is just acting like you know something when you don't.

It's going to take years for us to really determine whether Elias' process works or not. I don't scout the amateur players so I don't have a strong opinion on who Elias should have taken. I judge by how those players do once they are pros.

Cowser has not looked very good this year. Trey Mancini did not look good in his first full season and turned out pretty good. It's disappointing that Cowser is the not the fast moving college outfielder he was written up as by many sources, but the book has not been written on him. It's way too early to write him off yet or say Lawler is better. 

 

 

[Frobby]

I just object to the constant harping on this.   Here was my comment at the time of the draft: “And it’s not clear why we needed to save money by choosing Cowser over Lawler or Watkins.”   So I liked Lawlar.   But this thread is about the player we picked, Cowser.   I don’t need to be reminded every other day that some people wanted Lawlar.   Talk about beating a dead horse.   

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You make things sound so black and white as usual.    Let's use last year's draft as the example.   You think Elias had Lawlar rated higher (he may have) than Cowser and took Cowser anyway so he could go overslot later which turned into Rhodes and Willems.    You can't question Elias' process without know the information he was going on.   Do you really think he passed on a player who he thought was a franchise type SS?

You have already determined that Elias process was wrong/flawed.    The results might back you up in 4-5 years.   They might not.   Either way, you have determined that Elias used the wrong process for making his decision without even knowing what he based his decision on.

It's quite possible that Elias did not think Lawlar was a franchise type SS and had no strong feeling on any one player at #5.   It could be that he loved Cowser at #5 on talent alone.  YOU DON'T KNOW!

The RESULTS will tell us if Elias process worked or didn't work.    You can say a process is a good process or a bad process.    If a process consistently give you good results, then I'd say it's a good process.    If it consistently give you bad results, oh well.    We will see.   Claiming he used a bad process NOW is just acting like you know something when you don't.

I don’t know how highly he felt about Lawlar but I feel he had him rated higher than Cowser.  Whether he felt he was a franchise SS or a top second baseman, who knows.

The stated purpose was that they went with Cowser because he was underslot. That doesn’t say BPa to me.  We saw Lawlar get overslot with Arizona. The talk was other teams shied away from him because of money.  We saw teams do it with Martin as well. He wasn’t going to come cheap.
 

 I firmly believe they passed on Lawlar because of money and because they wanted more bonus pool for later.  I have an issue with that strategy, especially when a Lawlar level talent is sitting there.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I just object to the constant harping on this.   Here was my comment at the time of the draft: “And it’s not clear why we needed to save money by choosing Cowser over Lawler or Watkins.”   So I liked Lawlar.   But this thread is about the player we picked, Cowser.   I don’t need to be reminded every other day that some people wanted Lawlar.   Talk about beating a dead horse.   

Isn’t you constantly harping on people talking about this also beating a dead horse?  Like, you can ignore it too.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

BPA is an oversimplification.   You may think Elias is an idiot.   I do not.    Can he make mistakes?   Did he make a mistake?    Yes and maybe.    He determined that taking Cowser and using the saved money on Rhodes and Willems made more sense than taking Lawlar.    I'm not saying that was the right thing to do.   I'm saying that a lot went into making that decision.   It's not as simple as saying Lawlar was rated higher than Cowser and they should have taken him.    One of the problems I have with you and SG is that even if the results are favorable to Elias you won't give him credit for doing it his way but you're happy to pile blame on him if the results (so far very early results) go against him.

 

 

Whoa whoa whoa.  I never said I wouldn’t give him credit so don’t put words into my mouth to fit your bs narrative.  
 

Im saying you judge the process.  I feel the same way with trades.  You judge it at the time imo.

I have never said I dislike Cowser or that he was some awful pick.  I was fine with him being the second guy where others would have gone Rocker or someone else.  
 

But I do feel a mistake was made by not taking Lawlar.  I think if you continuously lose and put an awful product on the field while charging max money to your fans, you need to go big on the draft, since that is your only advantage to tanking.  When you keep losing and then you try to constantly hit doubles with high picks, that’s a bad process imo.

Some years I’m ok with that.  Some years there isn’t a definitive guy.  While I would have gone Veen over Kjerstad, I can see why you went Kjerstad and I feel that was a more defensible selection FA the field than Cowser vs Lawlar.  

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t know how highly he felt about Lawlar but I feel he had him rated higher than Cowser.  Whether he felt he was a franchise SS or a top second baseman, who knows.

The stated purpose was that they went with Cowser because he was underslot. That doesn’t say BPa to me.  We saw Lawlar get overslot with Arizona. The talk was other teams shied away from him because of money.  We saw teams do it with Martin as well. He wasn’t going to come cheap.
 

 I firmly believe they passed on Lawlar because of money and because they wanted more bonus pool for later.  I have an issue with that strategy, especially when a Lawlar level talent is sitting there.

 

Look at the two bolded statements.   It seems simple to me.   Your opinion based on what you've read clearly isn't how Elias felt about Lawlar at the time of the 2021 draft.   Just answer this question.    Do you think Elias would have been unwilling to pay Lawlar's price if he thought Lawlar was a special talent and a franchise type SS?

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Whoa whoa whoa.  I never said I wouldn’t give him credit so don’t put words into my mouth to fit your bs narrative.  
 

Im saying you judge the process.  I feel the same way with trades.  You judge it at the time imo.

I have never said I dislike Cowser or that he was some awful pick.  I was fine with him being the second guy where others would have gone Rocker or someone else.  
 

But I do feel a mistake was made by not taking Lawlar.  I think if you continuously lose and put an awful product on the field while charging max money to your fans, you need to go big on the draft, since that is your only advantage to tanking.  When you keep losing and then you try to constantly hit doubles with high picks, that’s a bad process imo.

Some years I’m ok with that.  Some years there isn’t a definitive guy.  While I would have gone Veen over Kjerstad, I can see why you went Kjerstad and I feel that was a more defensible selection FA the field than Cowser vs Lawlar.  

 It's laughable.   You have determined that Elias' process is wrong and even if the results back up HIS process, you will say that HIS process was wrong.   It's like talking to a brick wall.     Results matter but not to you.   It's only the process which you have determined that you know the right process and Elias does not.

[btdart20]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Isn’t you constantly harping on people talking about this also beating a dead horse?  Like, you can ignore it too.

I ignore it.  But I also find it annoying with no value-add and a waste of time.  So, I end up ignoring everything posted by various posters I lump in that type of category.  I imagine I'm part of the silent majority who follow the "don't feed the trolls" mantra.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

55 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

BPA is an oversimplification.   You may think Elias is an idiot.   I do not.    Can he make mistakes?   Did he make a mistake?    Yes and maybe.    He determined that taking Cowser and using the saved money on Rhodes and Willems made more sense than taking Lawlar.    I'm not saying that was the right thing to do.   I'm saying that a lot went into making that decision.   It's not as simple as saying Lawlar was rated higher than Cowser and they should have taken him.    One of the problems I have with you and SG is that even if the results are favorable to Elias you won't give him credit for doing it his way but you're happy to pile blame on him if the results (so far very early results) go against him.

 

 

I don’t think he is an idiot. That is def not accurate. I also get the strategy quite well but don’t agree with the approach and I would give him credit. I would have cut Odor & Owings long ago….Odor has been hot as of late…