Key to this season: avoid long losing streaks

[Frobby]

I’m reading a lot of optimistic threads today, and I’m feeling pretty optimistic myself.   But…..

Long losing streaks can crush that feeling in an instant.   Last year we had streaks of 1-18 (May 11-31), 1-14 (June 9-24), and 0-19 (August 3-24).   Last year we were 16-19 when the first of those three massive losing spells began.  I guarantee you this board was every bit as optimistic and upbeat on May 10 last year as it right now.  And then the rug got pulled out from under us.   

Think about it.   The team was 50-59 when not in one of those three streaks, but 2-51 when in them.  And by the way, even in the 50-59 part they had some pretty bad patches of 1-6, 1-8 and 1-8.

In the early going this year, we haven’t lost more than 5 in a row.   To me, minimizing the really bad stretches is what will determine whether the team’s record shows significant improvement this year.   
 

[Just Regular]

It is a known known being the worst AL East team gives you the MLB-wide toughest schedule on paper this year.

But the Out of Division to date MIL-OAK-LAA-MIN basket has skewed tough.

Today's winning percentage of YTD Series Opponents: .615, .692, .720, .400, .630, .720, .385, .577.    Helped in part by their Orioles games, but not excessively so.

We messed up Oakland, curious to see if we can play better against KC-STL-DET (.348, .600, .333).

Then another round of NYY-TB-NYY, but in the second half of the month at least one if not both of the Franchise Players should be in the mix.    Agree if the Royals and Tigers of all people put us into one of those skids 100+ losses easily comes back into play.

In 2022 the Royals and Tigers are supposed to be better than the Orioles like maybe on paper Jordan Westburg is supposed to be better (or at least closer) than Gunnar Henderson.    It might be I feel like a pre-series favorite tonight for the first time in about half a decade.    Stay away, bad weather.

Psychobabble-wise, STL-DET feels like a better spot for Adley and Grayson before the Eastern titans.   I have a little hope wildcard is right about Nashville-St. Louis.   Chances to catch against Yadi Molina don't come around everyday.    Marketing wise the roadtrip is just more time to get tickets sold.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

The one good thing is with the improved pitching the Orioles should avoid the lengthy losing streaks they had in 2021. As long as the pitching performs like they have so far, the Orioles should be able to avoid the 10+ game losing streaks that really dragged down the team's record. 

[waroriole]

Also, hear me out, try to mix in some long winning streaks. 

[interloper]

Off topic, but does anybody know when baseball-reference updates its stats to include the most recent game? Still stuck on 5/4/22 stats as of 10:30 this morning. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

12 minutes ago, interloper said:

Off topic, but does anybody know when baseball-reference updates its stats to include the most recent game? Still stuck on 5/4/22 stats as of 10:30 this morning. 

I don't if it just go updated but the Orioles team page is updated through 05/05 when I look.

Mouncastle has 4 home runs now and Lopez's record is 3-1. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2022.shtml

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I don't if it just go updated but the Orioles team page is updated through 05/05 when I look.

Mouncastle has 4 home runs now and Lopez's record is 3-1. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2022.shtml

Yeah a few minutes after posting this they updated it. Thanks!

[sportsfan8703]

Avoiding losing streaks is going to be tough to do with an unproven, piece meal, rotation. Plus, the bottom of the lineup. AR will help stretch the lineup. We need Urias to get back to a .700+ OPS. 
 

Not shocking that SP and IF is our weaknesses right now. Waiver wire pickups can only get you so far. 

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah a few minutes after posting this they updated it. Thanks!

They are not consistent in the timing of their updates.   Some days it’s done by the time I wake up, other times it’s mid-morning.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

The one good thing is with the improved pitching the Orioles should avoid the lengthy losing streaks they had in 2021. As long as the pitching performs like they have so far, the Orioles should be able to avoid the 10+ game losing streaks that really dragged down the team's record. 

Last year the team had a 4.01 ERA through 26 games.   So the performance to date does not necessarily indicate that the pitching will remain good, or even competitive.   We’ll just have to wait and see.   

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Also, hear me out, try to mix in some long winning streaks. 

Yeah, last year their longest winning streak was a whopping 3 games.  That's almost as amazing as the losing streaks.

[Frobby]

Just now, glenn__davis said:

Yeah, last year their longest winning streak was a whopping 3 games.  That's almost as amazing as the losing streaks.

We haven’t won more than two in a row this year.   We can hope to top that in our next game (whenever that turns out to be).

[btdart20]

I'm choosing to hope in a better season!  Yes, there are still the rotation concerns, and the bullpen is still a bit of an X factor.  But there are also more upside potentials than last year too.

Those losing spells last year were directly related to bad pitching and a tapped pen.  The same thing could happen this year for sure.  For 2021, Means' no-no on 5/5/21 (and subsequent concerns about his arm) is the line of demarcation in my mind (to incorporate the team psychological aspect from another thread).  

Last year Means was solid (and very lucky) through his no-hitter on 5/5/21.  7 starts, 1.37 ERA, 3.06 FIP, .135 Babip against.  After the no-no:  19 starts, 4.65 ERA, 5.33 FIP, .269 Babip against.  And we knew the rest of the staff was duct-taped together.  

Team ERA thru 5/5:  3.98

Team ERA post 5/5: 6.29

Team ERA for 5/11-5/31:  6.79

6/9-6/24 ERA:  7.58

8/3-8/24 ERA: 8.50

Small sample but reference the Fangraphs article for some underlying legitimacy in the numbers too.  Team ERA (3.88) is pretty close to FIP (4.00).  Without Watkins' (2.55 ERA/5.19 FIP), those numbers would probably be much more in line (or even flip the ratio to show slightly unlucky?).  I wish I had team ERA/FIP numbers for those windows in 2021, but I can't find them.

There are at least some decent factors that (maybe) we haven't quite out punted our 10-16 coverage.  

[OriolesMagic83]

I think the #1 thing that's going to help the team avoid long losing streaks is the bullpen.  I feel like every close game the O's have a chance, because the bullpen has been that good.  Too painful to go thru every game log for those long losing streaks last year, but I'm sure there were many games where a good bullpen would have made a difference.  Having a starter stopper would be great for stopping long losing streaks too.  I would have thought that Means would be that pitcher, but he has lengthy stretches of mediocrity mixed in with stretches of greatness or at least very good pitching.  He's obviously not available this year, so will one of the other starters take his place?  Clutch hitting is another way to avoid long losing streaks and the O's severely lack that.  Hopefully Adley can be one of those clutch hitters. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Last year the team had a 4.01 ERA through 26 games.   So the performance to date does not necessarily indicate that the pitching will remain good, or even competitive.   We’ll just have to wait and see.   

Matt Harvey had a 3.60 ERA through May 7!