Ok, so now what?

[mweb]

I omitted signing Willy Taveras as well.

I believe Sheets and Penny have good years ahead o0f them. With Guthrie - it could potentially give us a solid 1-3 for less than the cost of CC Sabathia. When healthy - Sheets and Penny dominate. They are worth the risk IMHO.

I also like taking a flier on Colon or Mulder. This organization needs to take a risk. Why sign Garland to an overpriced contracy? Why sign Hendrickson? The ceiling is way too low on him. Stop being so conservative.

Dunn will smash the ball at Camden. 45-50 HRS. Crede is a defensive stud who has 20-25 HR potential and is still young.

Penny would be a good guy to get, certainly a high reward possibility.

[Lucky Jim]

We aren't likely to deal them anyway.

That's a whole other probabilistic issue - but one based on speculation rather than performance prediction.

Based on how we've treated expiring contracts in the past, I tend to believe that, if the return for either Huff or Roberts > than two draft picks, they'll be traded.

We'll see. If those moves aren't made, I'll be quick to criticize.

[mweb]

It looks a lot like what I wrote earlier:

In fact, one of the downsides of signing Teixeira would be that it would make it hard for us to trade our expiring assets (Roberts, Huff) or our likely over-valued assets (Guthrie? Sherrill - hard to say) out of some misbegotten idea about contending more quickly.

Yeah, sorry for not giving you the credit.

I think you're right about that downside. If they had signed Tex, the chances of trading Brob, Huff, Sherrill, etc would have greatly diminshed imo.

[mweb]

And Gonzalez is the only one we have even a remote chance at obtaining.

Why is that? Think they won't make it to free agency?

[Sports Guy]

That's a whole other probabilistic issue - but one based on speculation rather than performance prediction.

Based on how we've treated expiring contracts in the past, I tend to believe that, if the return for either Huff or Roberts > than two draft picks, they'll be traded.

We'll see. If those moves aren't made, I'll be quick to criticize.

We have already turned down an offer for BRob that was better than 2 picks. AM feels he has to rape a team...He doesn't believe in a fair offer. If all he gets is a fair offer for BRob, I am not sure he is dealt...although, this offseason may be different since he is a year closer to FA.(we can hope it will be different at least because we aren't going to get that blow you away offer for BRob)

Too many Huff like players available this offseason to realistically think he will be dealt.

[Lucky Jim]

Penny would be a good guy to get, certainly a high reward possibility.

I'd actually be looking to package groups of high-ceiling/high-risk prospects for low-risk/ML-average ceiling young players.

We've done a bad job of developing ML-regulars, but a pretty good job of acquiring high-ceiling guys (Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Wieters, Markakis, Jones).

I think this is a trade-off in risk that could pay high dividends and put us perched to fill needs through trades and FA. That's just me, though.

[Sports Guy]

Why is that? Think they won't make it to free agency?

Because the Orioles will not be paying 18+ million a year for 7+ years for Howard or Fielder.

Gonzalez is better than both of them IMO but he is lower profile and doesn't give the 50 homers, so he may be much cheaper.

[Orioles Magic]

I think it's time to to really try to sell Markakis on the franchise. Even though Tex didn't come here, there is still a solid rebuilding effort going strong. Plus, if Kakes signs an extension now, it will save the organization some face, and it is the right thing to do.

A Brian Roberts trade will open up some interesting opportunities as far as acquisitions go. As irritated as I may be, at this moment, with the organization, Andy McPhail is a master at the trade and I look forward to the return Brian will bring.

I think Huff and Scott and solid trade possibilities. I am not alone when I express surprise that there isn't more of a market for Huff's bat. Perhaps there will be in the days before Spring Training when teams look to finalize their rosters.

If we can land one of the Japanese pitchers, I think it would be taking a step in the right direction. We are going to have to deal with some innings eaters for a year or two until the Big 3 start advancing into the major leagues. There is still a lot to be optimistic about regarding the rebuilding effort. I look forward to the prospect reports we'll see in BA in the coming year as we are now rate as a top ten farm system.

Again, selling Markakis an extension at this junction is crucial, IMO. It would show the fans that we are committed to winning. It looks like, as the dust settles on the Tex saga, he wasn't serious about playing in Baltimore. If the organization can show it wants to keep Markakis around for a long time they may send an important message to their fanbase.

Hate to say it but if the O's show no signs of competing, Kakes will probably fly the coop to the Yanks or Sox at the earliest opportunity. The O's are their farm beyoootches until MLB implements a salary cap.

[mweb]

Really? You don't get that if we didn't compete for Tex, we'll never compete for a top FA? Wow, ok

Let's see:

- Payroll flexibility to do it = check

- Top flight offensive player who can give you power you don't have on the team or in the pipeline = check

- Top flight defensive player who plays a position that is virtually dry organizationally = check

- Top of the shelf community guy/family man who clearly won't embarrass the organization or due anything to make you regret his contract = check

- Virtually all immediate family lives in the area and his wife has expressed a clear wish to remain near family = check

- Young enough that he will be a contributing force through our next "up" cycle at the top of his game = check

What negatives were there about Tex that would make us walk away? It just doesn't fit any better than he did. I'm not saying he wasn't a bit too expensive. Of course he was. All top flight FAs for the rest of our lives will be "too expensive" unless the rules of the game are changed. The Yanks have a virtually unlimited payroll. There are a couple other teams that aren't far behind.

We have issued an edict that we no longer will compete for a top free agent. Heck, MacPhail's own words about Minnesota confirmed as much. When was the last time that Minnesota signed an "A" free agent? Has it ever happened?

I think you're deceiving yourself if you don't think this is conclusive evidence that we intend to operate as a smallish market team rather than the mid-to-upper market team we should be.

As much as I agreed with the last post of yours I quoted, I disagree here.

First off, to say we didn't compete for Tex is wrong imo. They had a limit, probably above what their offer was based on the flexibility comment, but weren't willing to approach 8/180. Their limit was around what most on here felt was a good limit. But it seems many on here now disagree with the idea of a limit.

And you left out poor timing to sign a guy like him, meaning the first 2-3 years of his contract would probably be wasted. Signing a guy like him in 2-4 years makes much more sense.

Plus, there's him probably not wanting to be an Oriole nearly as much as was assumed, since he wanted to win.

There will be some top free agents that the Yanks aren't interested in, for those guys, there will be a much better chance for us or anyone else for that matter. Bottom Line is when the Yanks get involved for a top free agent, they usually get him.

Hey, look on the bright side, the Yanks are unlikely to be interested in future top first base free agents.

But anyway, I think it's jumping to conclusions to say the O's will never compete for a top FA. If the angry Tex mob wants to disagree, that's fine.

I will agree that it's highly unlikely that the O's will disregard any limits and just go all in to sign a guy no matter the cost. They will probably always have a cutoff point, it depends on how high that point is and who their competition is regarding if they'll get him or not. Tejada was an example of poor competition for a top guy we wanted, there will be similar opportunities imo.

[mweb]

Because the Orioles will not be paying 18+ million a year for 7+ years for Howard or Fielder.

Gonzalez is better than both of them IMO but he is lower profile and doesn't give the 50 homers, so he may be much cheaper.

Maybe, maybe not.

[mweb]

I'd actually be looking to package groups of high-ceiling/high-risk prospects for low-risk/ML-average ceiling young players.

We've done a bad job of developing ML-regulars, but a pretty good job of acquiring high-ceiling guys (Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Wieters, Markakis, Jones).

I think this is a trade-off in risk that could pay high dividends and put us perched to fill needs through trades and FA. That's just me, though.

I'll have to disagree with that, I'm not interested in trading our top prospects for ML-average ceiling young players. I think for the O's to be successful, they'll need to hit the lottery so to speak on some of these prospects. Which given the amount of high ceiling prospects we have, it not a long shot imo.

[mweb]

The thing you constantly overlooked in all of this was the idea of Tex being from here and how important that was.

For what I heard, AM felt he was obligated to go after Tex(and AJ)...because of him being from here.

If Tex was from Kansas City, the Orioles wouldn't have gone after him.

However, since he was from here and he does fit a large need, the Orioles were prepared to give him the largest contract in FA history.

However, it didn't happen...Why on earth should we believe that the Orioles will get into that area again?

Do you honestly think the Orioles will be players for Albert Pujols?

Now, we may be able to land the next Tejada...an undervalued superstar at a position of need.

I believe we will sign FAs up until the point of 15 million per year and 5 years or less...Much beyond that, I have trouble believing we will ever be a serious player for them unless MASN is an absolute gold mine and we can start having payrolls with Boston, or at least close to it.

And the other thing that you are overlooking is what has been said by AM...Too much money for one player.

I kept saying that Tex was the exception to the rule and guess what, he was. AM felt obligated, so he went after him. Any other player? Not going to happen.

AM + PA = not paying too much. That is why PA hired him..they think alike.

End of the day, I really see nothing that says, the Orioles will be a major player for upper level, high caliber FAs unless they get another Tejada type bargain.

Other than that, forget about it.

This is just another reason why AM has got to make a ton of moves...Why he has to continue to bring in a lot of talent and why he has to continue to make trades.

We just can not obtain enough talent without doing that...It just isn't possible, unless you are willing to sit around for at least another 3 years before we start to sniff the idea of potentially contending and with the way Jordan likes to draft, 3 years is really stretching it.

You mention that AM only went after Tex because he's from Maryland as if that's an indication that he won't otherwise go after top free agents. Well that may be true, but it could be that he just doesn't feel this is the best time to sign a guy like him, which I agree with.

And be willing to offer at least 7/140 for a player should show that they could be players for free agents who will cost more than Tejada.

[Lucky Jim]

I'll have to disagree with that, I'm not interested in trading our top prospects for ML-average ceiling young players. I think for the O's to be successful, they'll need to hit the lottery so to speak on some of these prospects. Which given the amount of high ceiling prospects we have, it not a long shot imo.

I don't think high-ceiling/high-risk guys are our top prospects. I think high-ceiling, high-probability (Wieters) and high-ceiling, medium-probability (Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz) should be the staples of our prospect lists. In the old days, high-ceiling, low-probability guys were there. So, I guess I meant guys like Liz, Rowell, etc (noting they're very different).

Mostly, however, I'm talking about packaging arms. If we're going to continue to draft arms in bulk (and I'm sure we are) then we should be fine packaging them for guys with ML-average ceilings.

Having seen so many of these guys flame-out, I think the key is to deal them before they do so.

That's just me. I don't expect everyone to agree. But if I were GM, I'd be swapping risk.

[Sports Guy]

You mention that AM only went after Tex because he's from Maryland as if that's an indication that he won't otherwise go after top free agents. Well that may be true, but it could be that he just doesn't feel this is the best time to sign a guy like him, which I agree with.

And be willing to offer at least 7/140 for a player should show that they could be players for free agents who will cost more than Tejada.

Of course they could be but there really isn't any reason to believe they will.

Tex was an exception.

Don't underestimate the combo of PA and AM and what their principles and ideas are when it comes to spending big money on a player.

We have heard from the Cubs fans about this...many people poo poo'ed what they had to say. Perhaps, instead of doing that, people should have actually been listening to them?

[mweb]

Of course they could be but there really isn't any reason to believe they will.

Tex was an exception.

Don't underestimate the combo of PA and AM and what their principles and ideas are when it comes to spending big money on a player.

We have heard from the Cubs fans about this...many people poo poo'ed what they had to say. Perhaps, instead of doing that, people should have actually been listening to them?

Tex was an exception because he was from here, but he also wasn't part of AM's plan, so that cancels each other out imo. If the team gets to the point where they're a player or two away, I think they would likely go after top free agents if the right ones are available.

PA has a somewhat conflicting history on this, he used to be a wild spender, and would go after top guys, but has also made some comments about teams spending too much on individual players.