For those who think we went a bit under slot on some picks, have we drafted any over slot guys?

[GoldGlove21]

For those who think we went a bit under slot on some  picks,  have we drafted any over slot guys? Anybody fall due to sign ability concerns that we might have to throw extra money at?

[LookinUp]

I feel like we don't really know. People are thinking Beavers, Wagner, McLean and Bright could be over slot guys, but it doesn't feel like any of them are really way over slot.

My best guess is that if ownership allows Elias to go to 104.9% of his draft pool, he still has some money to spend.

It also seems like he won't be allowed to go over budget like that.

[baltfan]

Ryan Wagner is likely overslot given he is a sophomore. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Ryan Wagner is likely overslot given he is a sophomore. 

Has anyone run the numbers?  Are sophomores more likely to be overslot over the years?  Do they often go back to school?

Draft eligible sophomores are old for their class I don't think most of them want to go back and try again.

[sportsfan8703]

I’m no expert but it looks pretty simple… We got “our guys” in Holliday and Fabian. I think then we were thrilled that Beavers and Wagner were there when they were and we took them. That’s why day 2 was meh. 

[seak05]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Has anyone run the numbers?  Are sophomores more likely to be overslot over the years?  Do they often go back to school?

Draft eligible sophomores are old for their class I don't think most of them want to go back and try again.

They may not “want” to go back to school, but they have a lot of leverage (even more then hs kids in some respect, bc they don’t have to wait three years). There is always risk but if they think an extra year of performance will result in a significantly higher offer, then it’s worth it to spend the extra year. 
 

A guy like Wagner is a perfect example, if he returns as a junior and proves this year wasn’t a fluke, he’s probably a top 15 selection. So you have to offer enough that the 1yr gamble isn’t worth it. 

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, seak05 said:

They may not “want” to go back to school, but they have a lot of leverage (even more then hs kids in some respect, bc they don’t have to wait three years). There is always risk but if they think an extra year of performance will result in a significantly higher offer, then it’s worth it to spend the extra year. 
 

A guy like Wagner is a perfect example, if he returns as a junior and proves this year wasn’t a fluke, he’s probably a top 15 selection. So you have to offer enough that the 1yr gamble isn’t worth it. 

I don't think they have a lot of leverage.

They have more leverage than a junior and a lot more than a senior.

My guess is that drafted sophomores don't end up being much different to sign than juniors.

[Sports Guy]

I doubt it.  Wagner is the only one I question.

OToH, they went overslot for Servideo, so who knows.

You also wonder if they end up going overslot just to spend the money and that not have been the actual plan.

In other words, do they go overslot on players they didn’t need to?  I don’t think they want the look of 500k or so not spent.

[owknows]

20 minutes ago, seak05 said:

They may not “want” to go back to school, but they have a lot of leverage (even more then hs kids in some respect, bc they don’t have to wait three years). There is always risk but if they think an extra year of performance will result in a significantly higher offer, then it’s worth it to spend the extra year. 
 

A guy like Wagner is a perfect example, if he returns as a junior and proves this year wasn’t a fluke, he’s probably a top 15 selection. So you have to offer enough that the 1yr gamble isn’t worth it. 

Wagner in particular would have a lot to lose by returning to school.

If his production trends to anything near his freshman year... he's a third or fourth rounder.

As it is... he's almost a tail-end 1st rounder.

[RVAOsFan]

31 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m no expert but it looks pretty simple… We got “our guys” in Holliday and Fabian. I think then we were thrilled that Beavers and Wagner were there when they were and we took them. That’s why day 2 was meh. 

Do you think Fabian was our 4th pick all along or would we have grabbed Whisenhunt if he fell one more pick to us? Some rumors out there we wanted Whisenhunt.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

Wagner in particular would have a lot to lose by returning to school.

If his production trends to anything near his freshman year... he's a third or fourth rounder.

As it is... he's almost a tail-end 1st rounder.

And there is also the time lost.

If he stays another year in school does it delay his ML debut (if he has one) by a season?  Does it shorten his overall career?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RVAOsFan said:

Do you think Fabian was our 4th pick all along or would we have grabbed Whisenhunt if he fell one more pick to us? Some rumors out there we wanted Whisenhunt.

Interesting question.

My instinct is that they had some sort of "make up" deal with Fabian after last year.

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Interesting question.

My instinct is that they had some sort of "make up" deal with Fabian after last year.

I was thinking something of a make up deal too. I think we might even give him the slot money he turned down from the Red Sox last year. Which was $1.86 million. 

So as much as it will infuriate people, Fabian might be overslot. 

[Sports Guy]

Re:Wagner..the poster with the knowledge of Clemsons situation was very informative and provides good reasons why he shouldn’t be a tough sign.

[Tony-OH]

58 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Ryan Wagner is likely overslot given he is a sophomore. 

Wagner though is a COVID sophomore, so he's 21. I doubt he can get more than his slot next year at 22. Plus, Elias/Brad Ciolek are very good at knowing guy' number and they have yet to lose a high draft pick they tried to sign.