Trade Deadline Primer/Thread

[WietersCorner]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right because Tate and Santander have never had a history of struggling at the ML level and couldn't possibly see a decline in performance.

Also, Diaz is currently healthy so there is your Stowers backup.

They certainly can! Thanks for pointing that out. It will be nice to have Hall and Stowers replace them when and if that occurs. Also, how are you so sure Diaz is not a negative WAR player?

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The guys who are realistically available and have some level of value are:

Lopez, Tate, Mancini, Santander, Mullins and Urias.

Urias would, imo, only be an option if they have a cost controlled pitcher in mind and they want to include Urias as part of a package.

I don’t see Lyles as having value enough to move him knowing we need his innings to protect the young arms. I don’t think anyone else in the pen will have much value outside of a sweetener in a deal and I’m not sure a deal exists where that is even needed.

Otherwise, unless they trade prospects for pitching (which I think is possible), I don’t see them trading anyone outside of that by group of 6.  And Lopez isn’t going anywhere unless the offer is significant enough to trade him, which I don’t see happening.

You can trade all of them and not punt the season however it would require the young guys to come up And perform.

To me, Santander and Tate need to be moved.  Mancini should be moved, as I think an offer will be there to justify it.

If Mullins is "available" in some sense, why not also Hays, Mountcastle, or Tyler Wells? Maybe Mateo? I'm not actively shopping any of these guys but I'd have an assistant answer the phone to see what the market is. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Why?

 

Why am I looking forward to it?  Cause I can't wait to see another Bradish type, that's why.  Maybe if we're lucky, we'll get a McKenna, too.

[clapdiddy]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

Why am I looking forward to it?  Cause I can't wait to see another Bradish type, that's why.  Maybe if we're lucky, we'll get a McKenna, too.

Dude, McKenna has ALWAYS been in the O's system.  There are NO OTHERS like him! 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, WietersCorner said:

They certainly can! Thanks for pointing that out. It will be nice to have Hall and Stowers replace them when and if that occurs. Also, how are you so sure Diaz is not a negative WAR player?

I'm not.

Just like I'm not sure Santander isn't going to put up a negative WAR the rest of the season.

You don't take a 2% chance to make the playoffs and base decisions around it.  Santander is somewhere between replacement level and average.  You don't worry about the lack of that type of player.   Stowers deserves a shot.

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

Why am I looking forward to it?  Cause I can't wait to see another Bradish type, that's why.  Maybe if we're lucky, we'll get a McKenna, too.

I don't understand the correlation 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

I don't understand the correlation 

It's ok.  

[WietersCorner]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not.

Just like I'm not sure Santander isn't going to put up a negative WAR the rest of the season.

You don't take a 2% chance to make the playoffs and base decisions around it.  Santander is somewhere between replacement level and average.  You don't worry about the lack of that type of player.   Stowers deserves a shot.

How are you getting 2%? Even Vegas has us at a more than 250% chance over that figure.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, WietersCorner said:

How are you getting 2%? Even Vegas has us at a more than 250% chance over that figure.

  Vegas is worried about bettor behavior not predicting actual outcomes.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I am looking at the Mets prospects list and just not excited by anything there. We are already deep in OF and set for the future at C. I guess I would do Mancini and Tate for Allan but aside from that I don't see what they have that helps us in any way, even long term.  

Alan would be a risky move.  He had TJ surgery in 2021 and needed more surgery in Jan 2022.   He is not projected to pitch at all until the end of the season.   ETA for the majors in 2025 if he makes it at all.   The report I read said that he could be a #2 or never make it to the majors.

[WietersCorner]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

  Vegas is worried about bettor behavior not predicting actual outcomes.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Thanks for sharing this! I'm curious why this model thinks Boston has much better odds. 

[bpilktree]

15 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

So hypothetically what can we get for Mancini & Tate

Ramirez, Hamel/Ziegler, and Dominquez/Suarez

That would seem like a decent return for those two.  

If it were me I would make the following moves.

Mancini and Tate for Vientos, Ziegler, Santos and a DSL lottery ticket

Santander for Snell

Bring up Varva and send Nevin down.  

Hall takes Tate spot in the bullpen to limit innings.  

Snell moves into rotation Voth to the pen.  Voth Hall and Akin are middle relief.  Kriebahl and Vespi 6th inning men, Perez 7th Bautista 8th Lopez 9th.

Your basically replacing Mancini and Santander with Stowers and Vientos which would give you similar offensive production and gets you younger while costing much less next year.  Varva plays 2nd base and some center to give Mullins and Hays some days rest.   Vientos can mostly DH but little LF/RF and 1st.  Arauz can give Mateo and Urias a break here and there and doesn't kill you in the field.  

Lineup

Mullins CF

Hays LF

Mountcastle 1B

Adley C

Urias 3B

Stowers RF

Vientos DH

Odor/Varva 2b

Mateo SS

Bench

Varva/Odor, Chirinos, Arauz, Mckenna

Rotation

Lyles, Snell, Wells, Kramer, Watkins

 

[oriole]

18 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

That would seem like a decent return for those two.  

If it were me I would make the following moves.

Mancini and Tate for Vientos, Ziegler, Santos and a DSL lottery ticket

Santander for Snell

Bring up Varva and send Nevin down.  

Hall takes Tate spot in the bullpen to limit innings.  

Snell moves into rotation Voth to the pen.  Voth Hall and Akin are middle relief.  Kriebahl and Vespi 6th inning men, Perez 7th Bautista 8th Lopez 9th.

Your basically replacing Mancini and Santander with Stowers and Vientos which would give you similar offensive production and gets you younger while costing much less next year.  Varva plays 2nd base and some center to give Mullins and Hays some days rest.   Vientos can mostly DH but little LF/RF and 1st.  Arauz can give Mateo and Urias a break here and there and doesn't kill you in the field.  

Lineup

Mullins CF

Hays LF

Mountcastle 1B

Adley C

Urias 3B

Stowers RF

Vientos DH

Odor/Varva 2b

Mateo SS

Bench

Varva/Odor, Chirinos, Arauz, Mckenna

Rotation

Lyles, Snell, Wells, Kramer, Watkins

 

Vavra is a lefty so he won’t be platooning with Odor but other than that, this would be a great place to be after the deadline. I also like the idea of going after Vientos since the future DH doesn’t seem to be in the current system.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, oriole said:

Vavra is a lefty so he won’t be platooning with Odor but other than that, this would be a great place to be after the deadline. I also like the idea of going after Vientos since the future DH doesn’t seem to be in the current system.

The future DH does not have to be a 35 Run guy who can't play the field. I would love to build a roster that does not have a spot taken up by a RH full time DH. We already have a LH DJ Stewart, do we need a RH one? 

[jamalshw]

26 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

That would seem like a decent return for those two.  

If it were me I would make the following moves.

Mancini and Tate for Vientos, Ziegler, Santos and a DSL lottery ticket

Santander for Snell

Bring up Varva and send Nevin down.  

Hall takes Tate spot in the bullpen to limit innings.  

Snell moves into rotation Voth to the pen.  Voth Hall and Akin are middle relief.  Kriebahl and Vespi 6th inning men, Perez 7th Bautista 8th Lopez 9th.

Your basically replacing Mancini and Santander with Stowers and Vientos which would give you similar offensive production and gets you younger while costing much less next year.  Varva plays 2nd base and some center to give Mullins and Hays some days rest.   Vientos can mostly DH but little LF/RF and 1st.  Arauz can give Mateo and Urias a break here and there and doesn't kill you in the field.  

Lineup

Mullins CF

Hays LF

Mountcastle 1B

Adley C

Urias 3B

Stowers RF

Vientos DH

Odor/Varva 2b

Mateo SS

Bench

Varva/Odor, Chirinos, Arauz, Mckenna

Rotation

Lyles, Snell, Wells, Kramer, Watkins

 

I generally like this and the post-deadline team doesn't look any worse for the wear than the pre-deadline team all while adding a starter for next year (Snell), a solid bat prospect in Vientos (albeit with some strikeout issues) and a couple mid-level pitching prospects that can help with a real weakness in the system. 

I don't know if the Mets part with Vientos in a deal or not (it would make sense given he's blocked at 1B by Alonso, but their DH spot has been an issue this year which is why they added Vogelbach and are looking at Mancini. That would seem to mean there's a path to playing time in NY for him next year so I'm not sure how eager the Mets will be to deal him.