Jorge Lopez traded to Twins for pitching prospects (edit)

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, justD said:

 

Damnit.  My luck at seeing anyone of value at AA this season continues to suck.  (Bowie in Harrisburg this week.)

Cowser, Ortiz, Prieto and Rhodes are all in Bowie still. Haskin, Armbruester and Rom are there as well.

[btdart20]

5 minutes ago, justD said:

After hearing how the Orioles' draft works, where Elias gets inputs from everyone about guys they really like, decisions being made only after a lot of debate from a variety of scouts and analysts, I can see the players offered by the various prospective buyers being evaluated the same way. 

I can envision at least 1 or 2 of the guys having been seen by our scouts before, being fought for in previous drafts only to be swiped up by the Twins instead.   I can imagine Luke having analyzed one (or more) of them and pushing hard for them.

And then, I can see Elias looking at where our pipeline stands.  We all know that there are gaps, particularly with pitching.  I just heard them talking about how the Dodgers' farm system is stocked to the point where their second-tier guys are more talent than 75-80% of other organizations' first-tier guys.  The Astros seem to have a strong continuous pipeline feed as well.  I believe that's what he's focused on, especially because he's even said us winning this season has made things harder.  But he's still sticking with his idea of bolstering the farm. 

So I look at this trade as a "sustainability" trade, that we won't know the true outcome of for years, and I believe that's what reclamation projects like Lopez are for.  Don't know how I feel about that, because it almost seems like keeping blinders on in order to "stay the course."  But if that's what we're doing, I guess consistency is good?

Absolutely!  Wisdom in the cousel of many, but someone has to be the decision maker. 

While the Dodgers and Astros have the market to run a higher payroll, their org depth drives the success.  When Elias came in, we didn't have much in the system and had little MLB/market talent to trade to tool up with either.  We're not solid in IF and OF depth.  And probably have some RP talent that I'm missing.  One top tier SP and one top tier TBD role-unknown P.  Beyond that, we still have some work to do on the depth/internal competition that drives the cream to the top.  

[justD]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Cowser, Ortiz, Prieto and Rhodes are all in Bowie still. Haskin, Armbruester and Rom are there as well.

Yeah, I edited to say "interest" instead of value.  Was just hoping to get my eyes on one or more of the new guys.

[RZNJ]

38 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, the optics of them not signing either one of the guys and pocketing a good sized chunk of their draft pool would have been great!

Haha.  So they lost the 779 slot and paid 1.325 to Young and paid another 700K in penalty just so they could make someone like you feel better?   But you don't, do you?  LOL

[Sports Guy]

So I agree with what Tony is saying.  Upside is there.  People are talking about depth and let’s face it, you need 30 pitchers to find 4.  We get all of that.

My issue here, besides underselling imo, is that you didn’t get anything special.  All of these guys may have an upside that could end up being really good..but they aren’t unique arms.  They aren’t unique talents.  They are readily available guys that every team has. 
 

For me, to justify trading Lopez, I needed a better headliner. Now, I don’t think that deal exists.  I think they took the best offer they got but I would have rather held onto him and either win with him next year or look to trade him later when his value gets higher, which I think it will.

[Gentile4]

Jorge Lopez ERA

2018  5.03

2019   6.33

2020  6.34

2021  6.07 

Just sayin'

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

So I agree with what Tony is saying.  Upside is there.  People are talking about depth and let’s face it, you need 30 pitchers to find 4.  We get all of that.

My issue here, besides underselling imo, is that you didn’t get anything special.  All of these guys may have an upside that could end up being really good..but they aren’t unique arms.  They aren’t unique talents.  They are readily available guys that every team has. 
 

The question for me is, is that what Elias’ staff thinks?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The question for me is, is that what Elias’ staff thinks?

Which part?  There is no doubt that these are arms every team has.  That’s not even up for debate.  Even the Os, who lack in pitching, have arms like this.

This goes back to the Elias word of the day..inventory.  If you accumulate enough of it, maybe something sticks.

[baltfan]

5 minutes ago, Gentile4 said:

Jorge Lopez ERA

2018  5.03

2019   6.33

2020  6.34

2021  6.07 

Just sayin'

Could have at one time done something similar with Liam Hendriks.  Failed starters do become good relievers.

[Yardball85]

 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Which part?  There is no doubt that these are arms every team has.  That’s not even up for debate.  Even the Os, who lack in pitching, have arms like this.

This goes back to the Elias word of the day..inventory.  If you accumulate enough of it, maybe something sticks.

95% of trades you could say every team has something like this.   You aren't getting an elite player/prospect back for Jorge Lopez this year, next year, or the year after.   Is Jorge Lopez elite?  No.

I agree they could have just held onto him and perhaps that will look like the smarter move.   Jorge Lopez stays healthy and performs well over the next 2 years, it will be hard to call the trade a win, unless we get a ML starter out of the trade and Cano turns into an effective reliever.   It could go the other way too.   

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

95% of trades you could say every team has something like this.   You aren't getting an elite player/prospect back for Jorge Lopez this year, next year, or the year after.   Is Jorge Lopez elite?  No.

I agree they could have just held onto him and perhaps that will look like the smarter move.   Jorge Lopez stays healthy and performs well over the next 2 years, it will be hard to call the trade a win, unless we get a ML starter out of the trade and Cano turns into an effective reliever.   It could go the other way too.   

The first part I disagree with.  By that I mean, I agree you aren’t getting it now but you absolutely could in the future and yes, I believe Lopez can be elite…or at least borderline elite to where he fetches a far better deal than this one.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The first part I disagree with.  By that I mean, I agree you aren’t getting it now but you absolutely could in the future and yes, I believe Lopez can be elite…or at least borderline elite to where he fetches a far better deal than this one.

What would you place the odds on Lopez being better than what he's done so far this year?

[foxfield]

At the beginning of this year, it was unclear just what we were doing with our pitching staff.  Many of us were unhappy with Lyles and with the trade of established bull pen arms for a bunch of nobody's and castoffs.  

That has turned out to be pretty good.  Whatever we think of this move, we probably are discounting pretty heavily that the front office actually wanted these guys.  And we should probably stop seeing it as we dumped a good piece for a bunch of hopefuls.

Moves like this will have a say in long term grades for Elias, but I am least open to the idea that they really like the deal because they got pieces they really like.

But, no, on the surface this isn't going to make anyone do a happy dance.  But the preseason moves didn't either and yet here we are in the hunt as they say.

Edited August 2, 2022 by foxfield

[SilverRocket]

Point of comparison for a reliever trade: