A lot of Elias notes/quotes

[Flash- bd]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think they were high in Kevin Smith too.  Came to the organization and was ranked 12th.

Is Povich any different than Lowther?  Lowther was dominant in the low minors too.

 

Povich's stuff would seem to have nothing to do with Lowther's. So yes, to answer your question, he is different than Lowther. You seem to be being critical just for the sake of it..

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Flash- bd said:

Povich's stuff would seem to have nothing to do with Lowther's. So yes, to answer your question, he is different than Lowther. You seem to be being critical just for the sake of it..

No, I’m asking real questions.  Povich isn’t some real hard thrower.  He’s going to have to get by on command, control, etc..same as Lowther.  Lowther has been ranked close to our top 10 in years past.  As was Kevin Smith.

Obviously, not every ranking is the same and just because a guy puts up similar numbers at the lower levels at similar ages doesn’t mean they are similar players.

But it’s a question worth asking.  What makes these guys so special to the point where you give up Lopez?  As I said, Povich and Rojas for Tate would have made a lot of sense.  I don’t dislike the players and don’t feel they have no upside.

The point is less about them and more about Lopez and his value.  

[jrobb21613]

• So who comes off the 40 man for Stowers and whose place does he take on the Roster. I know Odor's stats aren't great but he has been great a club house guy and would like to see him finish the year out. Philips is more than likely here to stay so is it Mckenna or Nevin that get sent down? How will Stowers fit and get everyday at bats?

Where does Henderson and Westburg fit in this year? Would one of them replace Nevin on the roster? Would they be able to get enough playtime or is more valuable to keep them at Norfolk playing everyday?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, jrobb21613 said:

• So who comes off the 40 man for Stowers and whose place does he take on the Roster. I know Odor's stats aren't great but he has been great a club house guy and would like to see him finish the year out. Philips is more than likely here to stay so is it Mckenna or Nevin that get sent down? How will Stowers fit and get everyday at bats?

Where does Henderson and Westburg fit in this year? Would one of them replace Nevin on the roster? Would they be able to get enough playtime or is more valuable to keep them at Norfolk playing everyday?

There are a ton of 40 man spots.  You can take away far more than what you have to add.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think they were high in Kevin Smith too.  Came to the organization and was ranked 12th.

Is Povich any different than Lowther?  Lowther was dominant in the low minors too.

 

Well, we have professionals whose job is to distinguish between the guys who put up good numbers in the minors but won’t be successful in the majors, and those who will, or those guys who don’t have great MiL numbers but have a decent chance of developing into good major leaguers.  Those people have a much better basis for making those judgments than I do.   So, I just have to hope they’re right a better than average percentage of the time — nobody bats 1.000 when it comes to evaluating prospects.   

[Flash- bd]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No, I’m asking real questions.  Povich isn’t some real hard thrower.  He’s going to have to get by on command, control, etc..same as Lowther.  Lowther has been ranked close to our top 10 in years past.  As was Kevin Smith.

Obviously, not every ranking is the same and just because a guy puts up similar numbers at the lower levels at similar ages doesn’t mean they are similar players.

But it’s a question worth asking.  What makes these guys so special to the point where you give up Lopez?  As I said, Povich and Rojas for Tate would have made a lot of sense.  I don’t dislike the players and don’t feel they have no upside.

The point is less about them and more about Lopez and his value.  

Povich throws 94-96 now, with what sounds like better secondaries and a four pitch mix, Lowther throws 89-91 and had a nice slurvy breaking ball but not much else. I don't really see the comparison. 

[RZNJ]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think they were high in Kevin Smith too.  Came to the organization and was ranked 12th.

Is Povich any different than Lowther?  Lowther was dominant in the low minors too.

 

Lowther was an 89-91 thrower with deception.  This guy is 94-96 early in games and settles in a 91-93 so yes, the upside is much higher with this guy.   He's also said to have 4 workable pitches right now.   Also, Lowther didn't have much, if any, physical projection.   This kid is tall and skinny.  

Edited August 4, 2022 by RZNJ

[geschinger]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Lowther was an 89-91 thrower with deception.  This guy is 94-96 early in games and settles in a 91-93 so yes, the upside is much higher with this guy.   He's also said to have 4 workable pitches right now.   Also, Lowther didn't have much, if any, physical projection.   This kid is tall and skinny.  

Lowther might have been a decent comparison before the Twins adjusted his mechanics.  He was drafted as a guy sitting at 88-90.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Povich throws 94-96 now, with what sounds like better secondaries and a four pitch mix, Lowther throws 89-91 and had a nice slurvy breaking ball but not much else. I don't really see the comparison. 

The comp being a lefty pitcher out of college who put up big stats in the lower minors.

I already said not all of those guys are created equal.  However, I stand by my point that Povich isn’t a special arm.  He isn’t someone you can’t find or is hard to obtain.  Now, maybe he beats the odds and develops when so many don’t.

Again, see the tweet I posted about the guy the Cubs got for Robertson.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Hallas]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The comp being a lefty pitcher out of college who put up big stats in the lower minors.

I already said not all of those guys are created equal.  However, I stand by my point that Povich isn’t a special arm.  He isn’t someone you can’t find or is hard to obtain.  Now, maybe he beats the odds and develops when so many don’t.

Again, see the tweet I posted about the guy the Cubs got for Robertson.

I think you're wrong to think that a 4 mph velocity jump after entering a pro training program is not worthy of a significant jump in projection.  Lowther sat 91 most of his pro career.  Povich spends 8 months in pro ball and gets that spike. The issue with me is that he hasn't actually translated that to great on-field results.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

I think you're wrong to think that a 4 mph velocity jump after entering a pro training program is not worthy of a significant jump in projection.  Lowther sat 91 most of his pro career.  Povich spends 8 months in pro ball and gets that spike. The issue with me is that he hasn't actually translated that to great on-field results.

Where did I say the velocity jump wasn’t important?

[jrobb21613]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There are a ton of 40 man spots.  You can take away far more than what you have to add.

Yes plenty of spots on the 40 man but what about the 26 man who comes off? 

[Hallas]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Where did I say the velocity jump wasn’t important?

You don't need to say it outright.   "Is Povich any different than Lowther?  Lowther was dominant in the low minors too." "However, I stand by my point that Povich isn’t a special arm."

 

Those statements tell me that you don't feel the velocity jump is important, because if it were, you wouldn't compare Povich with a guy whose fastball tops out at 92 on a good day, and you wouldn't declare that he isn't a special arm.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

Yes plenty of spots on the 40 man but what about the 26 man who comes off? 

You mean after this season?  I think you could probably drop 5-10 guys pretty easily.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

You don't need to say it outright.   "Is Povich any different than Lowther?  Lowther was dominant in the low minors too." "However, I stand by my point that Povich isn’t a special arm."

 

Those statements tell me that you don't feel the velocity jump is important, because if it were, you wouldn't compare Povich with a guy whose fastball tops out at 92 on a good day, and you wouldn't declare that he isn't a special arm.

Well he’s not a special arm in that you can’t find them.  A pitcher throwing 95 isn’t exactly rare. 

Do you think Bradish is a special arm?  

There are lots of pitchers out there with good upside who throw hard.  Again, not doubting upside..I’m doubting the return being worth it.

But I also said why I comped them while also acknowledging that they aren’t all created equal.