What Free Agent would you sign?

[Sports Guy]

I think you need at least 2 bats, 1 starter and 1 BP arm. 
 

That’s the minimum, not to mention a back up C.

I think I would roll with an IF of Ortiz, Westburg and GRod, in some order.  I would keep one of Urias or Mateo and trade the other. I would refer to keep Urias but see the logic in either of them.

At least one of Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle or Santander is dealt…preferably 2 of them but hope the deal is there to justify trading at least one of them.

I would also look to trade Tate, as I don’t think his value will be higher than it is now and I question his ability to repeat 2022.

Questions:

1) What are you doing with Tyler Wells?

2)  How long do you feel it takes Cowser to get up here?

3) how are you handling The rotation?  Are you leaving a rotation spot open for competition for guys like Hall and Voth.  What about Lyles?

I don’t know how Elias is viewing things. He obviously didn’t believe in this team to make the playoffs in 2022.  Does he feel the needs a big overhaul, minor tweaks or something in between?  

The schedule gets easier next year.  How does that impact the decision making?

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The two players I can think of who were somewhat  analogous were Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz.  Cruz got a four year deal that went through his age 37 season, but even though that contract was extremely successful, never got another contract that guaranteed multiple years.   Instead he got a one-year contract with a team option that was exercised, then two one-year contracts.   Ortiz at 36, after a .953 OPS season, still settled on a one-year deal.  Then, after a 1.026 OPS season, the Sox gave him a two-year deal.  When that was up, he was given a one-year deal with options.   

Based on those players, I don’t see Abreu getting a three year deal through age 38.   But like I said, you never know.  
 

Maybe the one year deals were what Ortiz wanted.  I don't think he ever fielded offers from other teams.  I'm sure teams would have been waiting in line to offer him multi-year deals.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If you are suggesting that Abreu knows how to beat a drug test then why did he drop from 30 homers to 15?

Not sure if you were joking, but that is not what I was suggesting.   I just meant these were two bat-first guys who were indifferent fielders and were still hitting well in their mid-30’s.   And teams weren’t willing to risk giving them 3-year deals once they crossed the age 35 threshold.  So, I’m guessing Abreu won’t get one either, particularly since he had a big HR drop-off last year.  (I did note in the Abreu thread that the batted ball metrics for Abreu remain very positive, and his K rate was down significantly, so I don’t know if the HR drop will be a big red flag or not, but it doesn’t help.)

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Maybe the one year deals were what Ortiz wanted.  I don't think he ever fielded offers from other teams.  I'm sure teams would have been waiting in line to offer him multi-year deals.

You may be right, I really don’t know.  It also may be that the Red Sox offered him multi-year deals at lower AAV’s and he decided to prove himself year-by-year.

I actually think Ortiz was a very underpaid player over the years.  He made less in his entire career than Chris Davis made in his ridiculous 7-year contract.  He got paid less than $3 mm/WAR in his career.  Not that I’m feeling sorry for the guy.  

[sportsfan8703]

Are we a 90 win team as is?  Only using players in the organization currently!!!

We’re really close, but we need to make some moves. 

What jumps out to me is that we could easily bring Lyles back, improve the rotation depth, then drop Wells/Voth to the pen to fix that need. Obviously, we need an upgrade over Benboom. We need a vet RH bat to take that last bench spot. 
 

GR, Bradish, Kremer, Voth, Wells

Bautista, Perez, Tate, Baker, Khreibel, Akin, Watkins, Vespi

1. Mullins L CF

2. Adley S C

3. Gunnar L SS

4. Santander S DH

5. Mountcastle R 1B

6. Urias R 3B

7. Stowers L LF

8. Hays R RF

9. Westburg R 2B

Urias, Mckenna, Cave, Benboom

 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Are we a 90 win team as is?  Only using players in the organization currently!!!

We’re really close, but we need to make some moves. 

What jumps out to me is that we could easily bring Lyles back, improve the rotation depth, then drop Wells/Voth to the pen to fix that need. Obviously, we need an upgrade over Benboom. We need a vet RH bat to take that last bench spot. 
 

GR, Bradish, Kremer, Voth, Wells

Bautista, Perez, Tate, Baker, Khreibel, Akin, Watkins, Vespi

1. Mullins L CF

2. Adley S C

3. Gunnar L SS

4. Santander S DH

5. Mountcastle R 1B

6. Urias R 3B

7. Stowers L LF

8. Hays R RF

9. Westburg R 2B

Urias, Mckenna, Cave, Benboom

 

If you believe that everyone stays healthy and everyone reaches their realistic ceilings, sure they can be a 90 win team as is.  
 

But that’s incredibly unrealistic thought process.

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you believe that everyone stays healthy and everyone reaches their realistic ceilings, sure they can be a 90 win team as is.  
 

But that’s incredibly unrealistic thought process.

Of course!!!  Wish lists are fun, but it’s also fun to evaluative what we have. I forgot Means coming back for 12-15 starts above. 
 

It’s a no brainer that we need to supplement what we have. I think the easy upgrades are,

1. Bring Lyles back.  Work something out. Then that kicks Wells/Voth to the bullpen and kills two birds with one stone. 
 

2. Upgrade at backup C

3. We need a vet RH bat. An upgrade over Aguilar.

I think that puts us at 90. We would have one of Wells/Voth, Watkins, maybe Hall, and eventually Means as rotation depth.

We have good IF/OF depth with Westburg being ready, Ortiz and Cowser being real close, and I’m not dismissing Vavra.
 

Yes, I think baseline, we’re 60/40 a 90 win team with just those small moves. Stuff happens though. I 100% want Elias to supplement the team a little more through FA and keep our prospects. But wanting all that, I am willing to admit, is wishful thinking. 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Of course!!!  Wish lists are fun, but it’s also fun to evaluative what we have. I forgot Means coming back for 12-15 starts above. 
 

It’s a no brainer that we need to supplement what we have. I think the easy upgrades are,

1. Bring Lyles back.  Work something out. Then that kicks Wells/Voth to the bullpen and kills two birds with one stone. 
 

2. Upgrade at backup C

3. We need a vet RH bat. An upgrade over Aguilar.

I think that puts us at 90. We would have one of Wells/Voth, Watkins, maybe Hall, and eventually Means as rotation depth.

We have good IF/OF depth with Westburg being ready, Ortiz and Cowser being real close, and I’m not dismissing Vavra.
 

Yes, I think baseline, we’re 60/40 a 90 win team with just those small moves. 

I think that’s very optimistic.  There’s some room for internal improvement just by maturation of our younger players and some prospects, but there’s also a real risk of key players getting hurt, something that basically didn’t happen much at all when it comes to our starting lineup.  We absolutely need to acquire a starter better than Lyle, whether or not we bring him back.  

[Riggodrill44]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

The two players I can think of who were somewhat  analogous were Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz.  Cruz got a four year deal that went through his age 37 season, but even though that contract was extremely successful, never got another contract that guaranteed multiple years.   Instead he got a one-year contract with a team option that was exercised, then two one-year contracts.   Ortiz at 36, after a .953 OPS season, still settled on a one-year deal.  Then, after a 1.026 OPS season, the Sox gave him a two-year deal.  When that was up, he was given a one-year deal with options.   

Based on those players, I don’t see Abreu getting a three year deal through age 38.   But like I said, you never know.  
 

What if? What if we had offered Cruz 7/100m when he was a free agent? 

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think that’s very optimistic.  There’s some room for internal improvement just by maturation of our younger players and some prospects, but there’s also a real risk of key players getting hurt, something that basically didn’t happen much at all when it comes to our starting lineup.  We absolutely need to acquire a starter better than Lyle, whether or not we bring him back.  

Sure saying sign Verlander and JD Martinez would fix us right up for a division run. 
 

I know players failed at points last year, like Bradish and Voth, but I’m a believer that they’re fixed. Bradish had two starts versus the Astros where they literally couldn’t touch him. That’s not just luck. 
 

Also, Westburg isn’t a slouch. He hit 25 HRs in the milb and all I’m pencilling him at is 8th/9th at 2B. Cowser and Ortiz are right behind him. 
 

This team does need supplements though. Some DD depth specials for AAA would be nice. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You may be right, I really don’t know.  It also may be that the Red Sox offered him multi-year deals at lower AAV’s and he decided to prove himself year-by-year.

I actually think Ortiz was a very underpaid player over the years.  He made less in his entire career than Chris Davis made in his ridiculous 7-year contract.  He got paid less than $3 mm/WAR in his career.  Not that I’m feeling sorry for the guy.  

I remember when the Twins were offering Ortiz for trade, I posted (on another board) that he would be at worst the 3rd best hitter on the O's.  I believe the competition included Jay Gibbons.  Obviously that was a golden opportunity the O's passed up.

[Sports Guy]

49 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Of course!!!  Wish lists are fun, but it’s also fun to evaluative what we have. I forgot Means coming back for 12-15 starts above. 
 

It’s a no brainer that we need to supplement what we have. I think the easy upgrades are,

1. Bring Lyles back.  Work something out. Then that kicks Wells/Voth to the bullpen and kills two birds with one stone. 
 

2. Upgrade at backup C

3. We need a vet RH bat. An upgrade over Aguilar.

I think that puts us at 90. We would have one of Wells/Voth, Watkins, maybe Hall, and eventually Means as rotation depth.

We have good IF/OF depth with Westburg being ready, Ortiz and Cowser being real close, and I’m not dismissing Vavra.
 

Yes, I think baseline, we’re 60/40 a 90 win team with just those small moves. Stuff happens though. I 100% want Elias to supplement the team a little more through FA and keep our prospects. But wanting all that, I am willing to admit, is wishful thinking. 

Yea, you are likely to be disappointed if this is the team.

[sportsfan8703]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, you are likely to be disappointed if this is the team.

It’s the same team as last year. Do you think we were a fluke?  Relievers?  That’s always a possibility. Bradish, Kremer, and Voth?  I see those are guys that developed and adjusted. Budding superstars?  We have three of those.  I’m not ready to trade guys are just now blowing up like Ortiz, and Norby, for a guy like Pablo Lopez. Plus, Means is a wild card. It’s a contract year for him. He might not be out till the ASB. Instead of 10-12 starts, he might give us 20. 
 

I think Elias sits back and sees where we are in July. You don’t want to sell the farm when you’re just now starting a “window”. 
 

 

[Just Regular]

On the shape of Jose Abreu's production changing, something that makes me think it could have been signal and not noise is hulking slugger Eloy Jimenez also transformed himself into an All-Star caliber .300 hitter.

It feels to me like a reasonable adaptation to 2022's squishier baseball.

Until 2-3 pitchers are home, I have low interest in blocking the Stowers-Vavra level guy totally, but in a vacuum he's a very good old player.

The White Sox are also probably the foremost non-playoff AL team I look at from this year who could block the 2023 Orioles.    I'm still not sure which present AL playoff team feels most likely to fall out.

[LookinUp]

The easiest way for our team to take a step back next year is Rutschman being hurt. Not much we could do about that, no matter what legit backup (e.g., not Contreras, who's a starter) we sign.

Beyond that, it's probably the bullpen imploding. We can and should insure against that by adding pitching to this team.