Why do we need to focus on lefty hitters?

[LookinUp]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That is interesting. The dimensions would seem to favor LHB way more than RHB but if the numbers don't bear it out that is something to consider. 

One way or the other, I'm sure Elias and Sig know mathematically how to approach this. 

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The park factors favor righties over lefties. (100 is average.  over 100 is favors hitters, under 100 favors pitchers)

I don’t think that will hold up In the long term.  The dimensions now favor LHB and that will show up in the data eventually.  

That said, I agree with the premise that we should just focus on getting the best hitters we can and not worry much about RH vs. LH.   First all, we play half our games on the road and we want to win there, too.  Second, as I outlined above, LHB are way more vulnerable to LHP than RHB are to RHP.  So all in all, I just want good hitters.  
 

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think that will hold up In the long term.  The dimensions now favor LHB and that will show up in the data eventually.  

That said, I agree with the premise that we should just focus on getting the best hitters we can and not worry much about RH vs. LH.   First all, we play half our games on the road and we want to win there, too.  Second, as I outlined above, LHB are way more vulnerable to LHP than RHB are to RHP.  So all in all, I just want good hitters.  
 

Well, lefties will hit more homers.  They hit the same amount as righties in far fewer plate appearances.  But the dimensions hurt the lefties in terms of going the other way and using all fields with the new dimensions is likely more difficult for lefties vs righties.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Sports Guy

[now]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Absolutely correct.  In 2022:

RHB v. RHP .700

RHB v. LHP .737

LHB v. RHP .708

LHB v. LHP .647

I expect the numbers to shift a little more favorably to LHB next year compared to 2022 because the shift rules will benefit them more.  But on these numbers, the 8 point advantage you get vs. RHP really isn’t worth the 90 point disadvantage you get against LHP, even though RHP are in the game about 73% of the time.

Well, so much for my "basic math" assumption. Surprised there's only  .008 difference batting L or R against RHP. Unless that's just one-year "noise." 

As to the park factor, no, I think Elias has been leaning left for a few years now (or perhaps they knew the park dimensions were going to change; or, the dimensions changed to suit the recent shift to LHB?)

[Hallas]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Righties(3792 PA): 

• Park factor: 99 (16th in MLB)
• xwOBA: 102 (14th in MLB)
• HR: 77 (26th in MLB)
• 2B: 85 (27th in MLB)
• 3B: 63 (23rd in MLB)
• OBP: 103 (7th in MLB)

Lefties(2324 PA):

• Park factor: 94 (25th in MLB)
• xwOBA: 94 (27th in MLB)
• HR: 77 (26th in MLB)
• 2B: 86 (25th in MLB)
• 3B: 67 (22nd in MLB)
• OBP: 97 (23rd in MLB)

 

Above are some stat cast numbers for OPACY in 2022.  

A common theme on this site and amongst Os fans is that OPACY is now more favorable to lefty hitters and that the Orioles should focus on lefties over righties, yet the stats don't bare that out to be true.

I think they should just target the best hitters they can and let it sort itself out.

Really don't think you should read too much into 1 year park effects.  They are really really noisy.

[Just Regular]

For the next few years, with the McClanahan exception, the path up the division is through Glasnow, Manoah, Gausman, Berrios, Severino, Montas and Cole.     Some of why Mountcastle feels important as a diversity guy is I'm sure we'll see some random AAAA LHP opponents when Cowser, Kjerstad and Holliday join Gunnar as everyday fixtures.

Its small beer if we dabble with Joc Pederson or Trey Mancini because the guess is neither Stowers nor Cowser is cromulent enough for the 2023 club.

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Just Regular

[Jim'sKid26]

21 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

For the next few years, with the McClanahan exception, the path up the division is through Glasnow, Manoah, Gausman, Berrios, Severino, Montas and Cole.     Some of why Mountcastle feels important as a diversity guy is I'm sure we'll see some random AAAA LHP opponents when Cowser, Kjerstad and Holliday join Gunnar as everyday fixtures.

Its small beer if we dabble with Joc Pederson or Trey Mancini because the guess is neither Stowers nor Cowser is cromulent enough for the 2023 club.

 

Cromulent: “Fine, acceptable or correct.”

“A humorous, intentionally morphologically opaque neologism coined by American television writer David X. Cohen (born 1966) for “Lisa the Iconoclast”, a 1996 episode of the animated sitcom The Simpsons.”

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/cromulent

I want to go on record to thank Just Regular for improving my vocabulary today.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Jim'sKid26
emphasis

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

The park factor, 16th versus 25th, is significant is it not?

The goal is to squeeze extra value out of the same cost. It's money ball. That doesn't mean you get rid of all RHHs. It just means the calculus is a little different.

But how does it matter?  I think that, generally, tailoring your hitters or your pitchers to your park is a whole lot of nothing. The Red Sox never win because they have a bunch of RH power hitters to take advantage of the Green Monster, they win because they have better players.  Most of the Sox' best players in history haven't even been right-handed.  The Yanks used to have a canyon out in LC/CF, but they won with fairly balanced lineups that included righties DiMaggio, Gordon, Bauer, Skowron, McDougald, Howard, Lazzeri, and Mantle was a switch hitter.

Now, if they want to try to have essentially a 2nd CFer playing left to cover the extra ground out there, I think that's a workable strategy.  But otherwise you just get the best players you can and play ball.

[clapdiddy]

My thought is we acquire good hitters, regardless of which way they hit.  

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

That is interesting. The dimensions would seem to favor LHB way more than RHB but if the numbers don't bear it out that is something to consider. 

I would mostly dismiss the LHH HR numbers from 2022.  The CR/RF dimensions didn't change at all, yet those numbers radically shifted from 2021 to 22.  I'm going to assume the LH HR number is going to settle out at about 110, until/unless we get 3-4 years down the road and it's still very low.

But, it's reasonable to think that the RH 1B/2B/3B numbers could end up higher than before, with more space for the LF/CFer to cover.

[jabba72]

Camden Yards has extreme splits now, so maybe the stats dont show that in year one. Its still wiser to go with BPA. I would never opt for the lesser player because he hits LH. I doubt Elias would either. 

 

[SilverRocket]

The small sample is also biased by who played in the park, i.e. our opponents in the AL East. The biggest Oriole killers this year are mostly righties like Judge, Bo Bichette, Vlad Jr, and Arozarena.

I don't think the park should be a huge deal, but I would be a little more skeptical of relying on the type of RHH whose primary value comes from pulled HRs. It's similar to the Lyles pickup, where his HR problem was mitigated: he gave up 6 HR at home and 20 HR on the road.

[now]

10 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

 I would never opt for the lesser player because he hits LH. I doubt Elias would either. 

Not saying his picks are "lesser," but how do you explain Elias drafts so top-heavy with LHB?

[jabba72]

38 minutes ago, now said:

Not saying his picks are "lesser," but how do you explain Elias drafts so top-heavy with LHB?

I think its speculative that Elias prefers LH in Rd 1 at this point. Could well be BPA, which greatly favors us if true. I dont really detect a preference in Rd 2.

[btdart20]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Righties(3792 PA): 

• Park factor: 99 (16th in MLB)
• xwOBA: 102 (14th in MLB)
• HR: 77 (26th in MLB)
• 2B: 85 (27th in MLB)
• 3B: 63 (23rd in MLB)
• OBP: 103 (7th in MLB)

Lefties(2324 PA):

• Park factor: 94 (25th in MLB)
• xwOBA: 94 (27th in MLB)
• HR: 77 (26th in MLB)
• 2B: 86 (25th in MLB)
• 3B: 67 (22nd in MLB)
• OBP: 97 (23rd in MLB)

 

Above are some stat cast numbers for OPACY in 2022.  

A common theme on this site and amongst Os fans is that OPACY is now more favorable to lefty hitters and that the Orioles should focus on lefties over righties, yet the stats don't bare that out to be true.

I think they should just target the best hitters they can and let it sort itself out.

Where did you find this?  How did other AL East parks play (since those teams would heavily influence OPACY numbers too)?

Odor, Santander, and Adley are the only LHH with significant PAs.  Other than Adley, our lefties didn't hit well (Santander leaned below-average as a LHH in 2022).  

Plus, Vavra and Gunnar's limited PAs had their home stats significantly off their road stats.  Is that OPACY?  SSS?  Growing pains?  TBD?

There's voodoo in those park effects!

But sure, upgrade bats where you can regardless.