Orioles 2022 #23 Prospect Aron Estrada - 2B

[Tony-OH]

Aron Estrada
Pos: 2B
Bats: S
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 17
2022 Level: DSL

Bio: A $175K signing during the last J2 signing period, this diminutive switch-hitter put up the best offensive numbers of any Orioles DSL player in 2022. An on base machine, Estrada slashed .368/.483/.566/1.049 over 174 PAs leading the organization in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS (1.049), wOBA (.494) and wRC+ (178). His 16.7% walk rate was tied for 2^nd and his 13.2% K rate was 3^rd in the organization among qualifiers in their league. His 18.8% swinging strike % was best among Orioles DSL players, he never struck out more than once in a game, and he struck out just six times over his last 76 PAs. A switch hitter, Estrada has more pop from the left side, but hit .500 (9-for-18) with seven walks (.643 OBP) and just 1 strikeout as a righthanded batter against lefties.

So your question at this point is, why is he just 23 on this list? First, Estrada is listed at just 5-8, 142 pounds so there is not a lot of room for growth onto his frame. He’s a bit of a pull hitter (52.3%), hits the ball on the ground too much (56.1%) and his .412 BABIP indicates that he was a bit lucky on them in the notoriously bad fielding DSL.

Speaking of bad fielding, Estrada’s initial scouting report of his shaky defense came true with him committing eight errors in 38 starts at 2B. While he’s a got a long way to go, he’s going to have to improve a lot or find himself out in left field. With average foot speed, Estrada is not going to steal a lot of bases so his hit tool is going to be his calling card to carry him to the big leagues.

Just for comparison sake, fellow diminutive Venezuelan Jose Altuve slashed  .343/.429/.441/.870 with 28 BBs and 16 Ks in 243 PAs as a 17-year old in the now defunct, but equivalent Venezuelan Summer League. Altuve committed 10 errors in 51 starts at 2B.

Size and defensive concerns leave is being a little cautious in his initial ranking on this list, but his offensive prowess last year speaks for itself. He’ll start 2023 in the FCL most likely unless he impresses enough to win a job in Delmarva. Either way, look for him to be pushed aggressively like Frederick Bencosme was in 2022 due to his advanced plate discipline.

[Frobby]

These are the kinds of kids I love to root for.  The stat I notice that isn’t really dwelled upon above is the .198 ISO.   He’s getting his share of extra base hits for a kid that size.  Are we sure he’s done growing?   

[RZNJ]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

These are the kinds of kids I love to root for.  The stat I notice that isn’t really dwelled upon above is the .198 ISO.   He’s getting his share of extra base hits for a kid that size.  Are we sure he’s done growing?   

I would take a bet on the over on the 142 lb's.   

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would take a bet on the over on the 142 lb's.   

Well, sure.  I really was asking if he’d maxed out at 5’8”.   I know I wasn’t done at 17.  

[Aristotelian]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, sure.  I really was asking if he’d maxed out at 5’8”.   I know I wasn’t done at 17.  

I think I was done growing taller. The weight, not so much. 

[LookinUp]

Obviously the physical growth will be important. He'll have to get stronger and refine his defensive game.

That said, you have to love the hit tool. The O's tend to favor guys who already have a hit tool and then add power to the profile. So Estrada seems to fit perfectly. 

So we hope he grows, sures up the defense and fits the hitter development program. If Maikol Hernandez had this hit tool, you'd be looking at a top 10ish guy. But it's hard to teach the hit tool.

[btdart20]

50 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, sure.  I really was asking if he’d maxed out at 5’8”.   I know I wasn’t done at 17.  

I grew an inch in my freshman year of college.  So, it's possible he could add an inch or two.  5'10" checks a physics/projection box that 5'8" doesn't.

[CharmCityHokie]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, sure.  I really was asking if he’d maxed out at 5’8”.   I know I wasn’t done at 17.  

The last decade or so hasn't been great in Venezuela in terms of access to steady calories or nutritional food for a majority of the population; I don't know his background or where he comes from in the country but if he suffered from any of the malnutrition that's been occurring for the past 10+ years he might be done in terms of height. Malnutrition can have serious effects on youth growth expectations. Again I don't know and this is just conjecture, he may have had 3-square a day and I could be completely off-base but it is something to consider. 

[NCRaven]

This is the point where I get lost and start thinking “who?”

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

This is the point where I get lost and start thinking “who?”

And that is where we come in! lol