Orioles sign Kyle Gibson

[deward]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think a fair question to ask is, did you need to make this move right now?

One of the first questions that came to mind for me. Why start with this? Gibson feels like the pitcher you settle for when the dust clears and other options have taken more money elsewhere, not the first move you make.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Pitching strategist Ryan Klimek I feel deserves a call out.     On the great eternal beer and tacos question, I have no idea whether when the staff expansion happened last year, Chris Holt was like "finally, I've been hoping to get this full-time resource for years", or like "jiminy crickets, another egg head telling me stuff".

Some of my optimism for Elias and Sig is they have particular life experiences that indicate competence in both.

Elias talks like an accountant-lawyer but pitched college and started in scouting.    Was he worked too hard without enough platform as a Yale freshman?    You might hope for growth after a good-ish first year.

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/28115/

Sig was a NASA scientist but spent a year in a minor league dugout (feel sure he considered it a fellowship, and being intentional in applying growth mindset), maybe figuring out functional channels to present these data findings usefully to actual human ballplayers.

Is the formula for Coke mostly in Klimek, Holmes, Holt, Blood, Sig or Elias?   

By formula for Coke, I more mean nursing tolerable performances out of waiver wire players - everybody knows Carlos Rodon, Shohei Ohtani and Grayson Rodriguez can do things almost all of the rest of the planet's best pitchers can't.    There's data there to evidence it - its just math.

I have no idea how to divide the credit for turning waiver wire guys into actual MLB starters and back of bullpen guys. There is a lot of credit to go around.  I'll be expecting better results with elite arms like GrayRod and DL Hall.  I'm not going to be impressed if Hall just turns into a high leverage bullpen guy and GrayRod turns into a #4 starter.

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I have no idea how to divide the credit for turning waiver wire guys into actual MLB starters and back of bullpen guys. There is a lot of credit to go around.  I'll be expecting better results with elite arms like GrayRod and DL Hall.  I'm not going to be impressed if Hall just turns into a high leverage bullpen guy and GrayRod turns into a #4 starter.

Luck

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, deward said:

One of the first questions that came to mind for me. Why start with this? Gibson feels like the pitcher you settle for when the dust clears and other options have taken more money elsewhere, not the first move you make.

Best guess would be they saw an opportunity and like Gibson. He doesn't preclude them from signing or trading for someone better but gives them at least some insurance that they won't be worse than last year. Plus he is cheap. 

Alternatively, Elias is budget constrained more than  we think and Gibson is the best we are going to do. I hope that's not it but you never know.

 

 

[Jim'sKid26]

12 minutes ago, deward said:

One of the first questions that came to mind for me. Why start with this? Gibson feels like the pitcher you settle for when the dust clears and other options have taken more money elsewhere, not the first move you make.

Unless they know something we do not about his performance. Then you get him when he is willing to sign. If you have identified him as an asset you wish to acquire, why wait? If you are settling, that's a different story. I think he was a pitcher they identified as someone they wanted, got the number from him that fit their assessment of his value and took the shot. 

[OriolesMagic83]

16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Luck

Seems like the O's could save millions on analytics if everything is just luck.

[Roll Tide]

16 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Seems like the O's could save millions on analytics if everything is just luck.

It’s not all luck. But, with waivers claims and the such you are trying to catching lightning in a bottle 

[Flash- bd]

What's the latest news on what the timetable for Means' recovery is looking like? This would suggest to me that Means is well off coming back and that Grayson perhaps will start at AAA. 

[tabletop]

They clearly have a type of arm that they target and they add guys they think they can fix. For every Cionel Perez there’s a Logan Allen that they aren’t able to fix. The hits are highlighted and the misses aren’t. Plus they were having the top waiver on everyone last off-season so they had first dibs on everyone. Either way, their successes have been impressive. I think to call it “luck” is a slap in the face to those who are turning waiver claims into legitimate MLB players.

[waroriole]

12 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

What's the latest news on what the timetable for Means' recovery is looking like? This would suggest to me that Means is well off coming back and that Grayson perhaps will start at AAA. 

Means isn’t expected back until at least half way through the season. He also shouldn’t be counted in for anything. 

[btdart20]

56 minutes ago, deward said:

One of the first questions that came to mind for me. Why start with this? Gibson feels like the pitcher you settle for when the dust clears and other options have taken more money elsewhere, not the first move you make.

I think Elias started here as a floor.  He was proactive last year getting Lyles to bring stability.  I suspect bringing in Gibson now is similar.  They may have had 2-3 guys they wanted in this type of tier (Eflin/Clevinger/Manaea) and wanted to make sure to land one of them.

I also think there’s a bit of game theory going on maneuvering anticipating how the market is developing.  Specifically it seems that the cost of starting pitching is more expensive than MLTRB or Fangraphs anticipated.  I wonder if it surprised our finance guys though?

[btdart20]

28 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It’s not all luck. But, with waivers claims and the such you are trying to catching lightning in a bottle 

Mysticism isn’t a good way to run a company.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, jerios55 said:

I agree something like this might be true, but consider the age factor will only be worse next year, the early seems odd.  But each agent/ player will have a different tolerance for market patience. 

I’ll be surprised if it turns out he signed for as little as $5 mm.   You’re right that he wouldn’t be jumping at such an offer this early.  

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Seems like the O's could save millions on analytics if everything is just luck.

I’m in agreement with you. But, you will catch one now and then when you are shopping in bulk the bargain bin. 

[SpOkane]

1 hour ago, deward said:

One of the first questions that came to mind for me. Why start with this? Gibson feels like the pitcher you settle for when the dust clears and other options have taken more money elsewhere, not the first move you make.

Maybe he was their number one choice for the lower tier, innings eater vet they wanted and now they can focus on the higher tier.