Orioles sign Kyle Gibson

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Whatever gave you that crazy idea 

Again, when I am referring to Lyles, I am referring to Lyles as an Orioles because that is what actually matters for the purpose of evaluating this move, and Gibson's 2020 for Texas and 2022 for Philly were both worse than Lyles was for us last year.

And writing his 2020 off as a SSS fluke does not work because he has had a number of other seasons in that vein (or even worse) in his career.

Hey, at least you didn't compare me to something from Amazon's abysmal Rings Of Power series lol.

Gibson has posted 5.00+ ERAs in 5 seasons for 3 teams, and a 4.50+ ERA for his entire 10 year career. At age 35, I would not expect some incredible career renaissance, but like I said, a season roughly on par with Lyles' 2022 is entirely within the realm of plausible outcomes. In fact, that is pretty much what I expect.

Based on his body of work, the odds are low that Lyles repeats his 2022. Fangraphs likes Gibson. Of course both have a range of upside and downside outcomes. If we were choosing between them to pitch Game 7 of a playoff series are you seriously saying you like Lyles or would need to flip a coin?

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I would agree with that take. Would you call them "functionally equivalent"? I think Gibson objectively has the better track record, albeit not by enough to be a lock to outperform Lyles.

 

 

Yea, fair enough.  I think I said before, not a needle mover.  I’m waiting for the needle mover.  

[owknows]

17 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Hey, at least you didn't compare me to something from Amazon's abysmal Rings Of Power series lol.

The Galadriel = Captain Marvel Series.

Bleh....

[Aristotelian]

Just now, Frobby said:

Yea, fair enough.  I think I said before, not a needle mover.  I’m waiting for the needle mover.  

We all agree there 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Yea, fair enough.  I think I said before, not a needle mover.  I’m waiting for the needle mover.  

I'm guessing that's coming by trade.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Yea, fair enough.  I think I said before, not a needle mover.  I’m waiting for the needle mover.  

Is Pablo Lopez a needle mover?  I’d call him a #3 starter and he certainly seems available and attainable.

 

[interloper]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Is Pablo Lopez a needle mover?  I’d call him a #3 starter and he certainly seems available and attainable.

 

I'd say yes. However it's pretty contingent on what it takes to acquire him for his two seasons of control. I don't see us rushing to extend him so if we give up too much in return it might not feel like a needle mover, despite the fact that he'd absolutely improve the rotation.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Is Pablo Lopez a needle mover?  I’d call him a #3 starter and he certainly seems available and attainable.

 

I’d say yes, he moves the needle.  Question is, do the players we’d trade away move the needle in the other direction?

[interloper]

Just now, Frobby said:

I’d say yes, he moves the needle.  Question is, do the players we’d trade away move the needle in the other direction?

Jinx!

[crawjo]

It's a fine signing. I'm someone who believes there's no front end or back end of the rotation. There's just the guy you have pitching that day. Gibson adds to the depth and I think I like him a bit more than Lyles. They were, to be honest, pretty similar pitchers last year, but Gibson has a better track record.

[MarCakes21]

4 hours ago, deward said:

One of the first questions that came to mind for me. Why start with this? Gibson feels like the pitcher you settle for when the dust clears and other options have taken more money elsewhere, not the first move you make.

I disagree.  This is a safe first move depending on cost.  He slots in at number 3 with the assumption you'll get someone in the Bassitt/Eovaldi/Walker/Taillon category.  If you get Rodon, then he moves Kremer or Bradish to the pen or AAA as next man up.  Or worse case, we start the year with a 6 man.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I disagree.  This is a safe first move depending on cost.  He slots in at number 3 with the assumption you'll get someone in the Bassitt/Eovaldi/Walker/Taillon category.  If you get Rodon, then he moves Kremer or Bradish to the pen or AAA as next man up.  Or worse case, we start the year with a 6 man.

He's not a #3.

 

[Just Regular]

4 minutes ago, crawjo said:

It's a fine signing. I'm someone who believes there's no front end or back end of the rotation. There's just the guy you have pitching that day. Gibson adds to the depth and I think I like him a bit more than Lyles. They were, to be honest, pretty similar pitchers last year, but Gibson has a better track record.

There's just 1425 innings of outs to get.

Top or Bottom of rotation come October maybe just means someone you would or would not trust to get outs more efficiently than Joey Krehbiel or Bryan Baker.    Its maybe a fringe benefit Kyle Gibson has his October 2022 lived experience - Hyder won't have to sweat too much about leaving him off a first round roster if we are strong enough for that this year.

[MarCakes21]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's not a #3.

 

You really would slot him behind Kremer and Bradish?  I understand they had good years, but this guy has averaged 1.4 WAR for 10 years.  They're second year guys.  The could be TOR or out of the league by the end of the year.  

Where was Lyles last year?  Behind those guys?  And Gibson is better than Lyles

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's not a #3.

 

Not on a good pitching staff.