Brett Phillips could not touch major league pitching last year, but raked at Norfolk - why might this matter??

[Sanity Check]

The ghost of Henry Urrutia still haunts me, similar to Jim Fuller from the 70's and Jeffrey Hammonds from the 90's and others.  Many up here couldn't wait for Urrutia to get called up and dominate at the major league level, only to find out he couldn't even pull the ball with any consistency.  We have very few guarantees from AAA to the major league level.

But, to my main point - Brett Phillips was a train wreck for all of 2022 at the major league level, then he goes to Norfolk and dominates.  In fact, he raked, and out-OPS'ed everyone else on the team (ok, Connor Norby was higher, but small sample size with only 39 at bats).  Even when Nevin was called up last year, he was hitting very well at Norfolk.....even though his final stats don't look all that great, he struggled mightily after being sent back down and that pulled down his impressive, pre-callup numbers.  But my poiont here is, Nevin was hot when he got called up, and it didn't translate at the major league level.

I see a lot of assumptions in the threads about how certain players' bats will "play" at the major league level.  Am I the only one worried that some of the bats that we think will play at the major league level actually won't?  As much as I'd love to see the next Bobby Grich and Don Baylor rise from farm, I feel like some of us might be getting way ahead of ourselves.....and possibly setting ourselves up for disappointment, all over again.

Am I just too pessimistic, on my own island here, or does anyone else feel like we could be setting ourselves up for more Urrutia moments??  (And I sure do hope that I'm wrong.....but the fact that Phillips and Nevin did pretty well in AAA and suffered miserably in the Majors has me really tentative about how anyone really translates without really knowing).

Anyone want to talk me off the ledge?  Do I just need to put my orange colored glasses on a assume they will all turn out like Adley and Gunnar???

Batting:

Player	GP	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS ▾	TB	DP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
Ramon Rodriguez	5	17	17	4	10	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	2	.588	.588	.824	1.412	14	1	0	0	0	0
Adam Hall	2	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.333	.500	.667	1.167	2	0	0	0	0	0
Connor Norby	9	42	39	7	14	2	0	4	7	0	1	3	5	.359	.405	.718	1.123	28	0	0	0	0	0
Brett Phillips	24	88	65	16	18	1	2	6	17	1	0	17	25	.277	.432	.631	1.063	41	0	3	0	3	0
Cody Roberts	7	28	24	3	9	2	0	1	3	0	0	4	6	.375	.464	.583	1.048	14	2	0	0	0	0
Joey Ortiz	26	115	104	22	36	7	2	4	14	6	1	9	17	.346	.400	.567	.967	59	1	1	0	1	0
Gunnar Henderson	65	295	250	60	72	13	4	11	41	10	1	38	78	.288	.390	.504	.894	126	0	5	0	2	0
Ryan McKenna	8	38	33	5	9	0	0	3	6	0	2	4	14	.273	.342	.545	.888	18	0	0	0	1	0
Terrin Vavra	45	208	173	34	56	14	1	2	18	5	1	28	36	.324	.435	.451	.886	78	3	6	1	0	0
Kyle Stowers	95	407	349	54	92	29	3	19	78	3	2	45	104	.264	.357	.527	.884	184	6	8	1	4	1
DJ Stewart	29	105	86	18	22	2	0	6	17	2	0	16	28	.256	.390	.488	.879	42	1	3	0	0	0
Jordan Westburg	91	413	362	64	99	25	3	18	74	9	3	44	90	.273	.361	.508	.869	184	7	6	0	1	0
Greg Cullen	28	99	82	19	26	2	1	2	7	1	0	14	25	.317	.429	.439	.868	36	0	2	1	0	0
Tyler Nevin	44	191	165	30	48	8	1	7	36	4	0	21	36	.291	.382	.479	.861	79	8	4	0	1	0
Adley Rutschman	12	53	43	5	10	0	0	3	7	0	0	7	6	.233	.377	.442	.819	19	2	3	0	0	0
Colton Cowser	27	124	105	23	23	7	0	5	11	0	0	13	38	.219	.339	.429	.767	45	5	6	0	0	0
Jacob Nottingham	89	354	301	41	69	12	1	15	51	12	3	37	98	.229	.333	.425	.759	128	8	12	0	4	0

[Can_of_corn]

I don't recall vast hordes of fans clamoring for Urrutia.  Where was I when this was happening?  He didn't even do that well at Norfolk.

Are you maybe thinking of Luis Montanez?

[Sanity Check]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't recall vast hordes of fans clamoring for Urrutia.  Where was I when this was happening?  He didn't even do that well at Norfolk.

Are you maybe thinking of Luis Montanez?

Your point is well taken.

I felt like there was a lot of hype around Urrutia and Dariel Alvarez, the same way it was about Yusniel Diaz.  I'm not sure I want to dig through the threads to find it, though.  I also seem to remember people on here feeling like he would be an upgrade to some of our outfielders at that time, but never really panned out.  I guess everything is relative, but whether it's the guys I named or the guy that you named, my real point was are we being overly optimistic about who might translate, and who might not?

 

[owknows]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't recall vast hordes of fans clamoring for Urrutia.  Where was I when this was happening?  He didn't even do that well at Norfolk.

Are you maybe thinking of Luis Montanez?

 

Ya know 'em when ya see 'em

Henderson? check

Rutchman? check

Westburg? check

Kjerstad? check

Cowser? Probably

Mayo? Probably

The rest of 'em?  We'll see.

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

Your point is well taken.

I felt like there was a lot of hype around Urrutia and Dariel Alvarez, the same way it was about Yusniel Diaz.  I'm not sure I want to dig through the threads to find it, though.  I also seem to remember people on here feeling like he would be an upgrade to some of our outfielders at that time, but never really panned out.  I guess everything is relative, but whether it's the guys I named or the guy that you named, my real point was are we being overly optimistic about who might translate, and who might not?

 

I'm not saying some folks weren't saying he might be an upgrade.  Wasn't that hard to upgrade some of those teams.

Just Montanez had a triple crown season in the minors.

Lesson in age appropriateness.

[yark14]

I was thinking about this same thing while hiking today.  It's anything but an exact science of who translates well from AAA to the majors.  Some with incredible AAA stats flame out, while others actually improve their stats when jumping to the majors. 

I think there are several factors, but the biggest are above the shoulders.  In this modern age with analytics and advanced scouting reports, the pitcher knows more about the hitter than his own mother; and vice versa.  

IMO, the ones that dominate high minors but flame out in the majors fall into one (or more) of these categories:

•  Unwilling to put in the work to learn advanced scouting reports
•  Unable to grasp or apply those advanced details (got by on skill alone)
•  Lifestyle #1 - the big leagues have a lot more distractions.  Life is much simpler when you're 20 and traveling on a bus from Norfolk to Durham.
• Lifestyle #2 - adapting to the changes your body goes through as your youth body changes into adulthood and you actually have to work to stay in playing shape.  Miguel Sano is example A.

[yark14]

4 minutes ago, yark14 said:

I was thinking about this same thing while hiking today.  It's anything but an exact science of who translates well from AAA to the majors.  Some with incredible AAA stats flame out, while others actually improve their stats when jumping to the majors. 

I think there are several factors, but the biggest are above the shoulders.  In this modern age with analytics and advanced scouting reports, the pitcher knows more about the hitter than his own mother; and vice versa.  

IMO, the ones that dominate high minors but flame out in the majors fall into one (or more) of these categories:

•  Unwilling to put in the work to learn advanced scouting reports
•  Unable to grasp or apply those advanced details (got by on skill alone)
•  Lifestyle #1 - the big leagues have a lot more distractions.  Life is much simpler when you're 20 and traveling on a bus from Norfolk to Durham.
• Lifestyle #2 - adapting to the changes your body goes through as your youth body changes into adulthood and you actually have to work to stay in playing shape.  Miguel Sano is example A.

And the ones that actually improve their production when they get to the majors master all of these.  I think most of our "second-tier" prospects of Westburg/Ortiz/Cowser/Norby will fall into this, as they seem to have really good heads on their shoulders and work their butts off.  That is why I am against us trading any of them until they get a decent look at in an Oriole uniform.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, yark14 said:

And the ones that actually improve their production when they get to the majors master all of these.  I think most of our "second-tier" prospects of Westburg/Ortiz/Cowser/Norby will fall into this, as they seem to have really good heads on their shoulders and work their butts off.  That is why I am against us trading any of them until they get a decent look at in an Oriole uniform.

Most? 

Pretty much all of them worth their butts off.  That's the standard.

I hope they do well but odds are pretty long on most of them improving on their minor league numbers.

[yark14]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Pretty much all of them worth their butts off.  That's the standard.

No they don't. Just like any profession, some employees get by on talent, some get by on hard work, the exceptional ones do both.  If you've ever managed employees you would know this.

[now]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

 

Ya know 'em when ya see 'em

Henderson? check

Rutchman? check

Westburg? check

Kjerstad? check

Cowser? Probably

Mayo? Probably

The rest of 'em?  We'll see.

 

Not to nitpick, but the OP was about translating from minors to majors. So I see only two to check there, so far. And Henderson, though impressive, only had 132 plate appearances. 

Phillips and Urrutia aside, not even every phenom pans out. 

[Sanity Check]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Most? 

Pretty much all of them worth their butts off.  That's the standard.

I hope they do well but odds are pretty long on most of them improving on their minor league numbers.

How much different is "pretty much all" vs. "most"? 

If there are some that don't, then I think that both most, and pretty much all, might both be applicable.

[Moose Milligan]

I don't really get it.  There's a difference between Brett Phillips mashing at AAA (in 24 games) vs. a guy like Urrutia vs. a guy like Cowser or Norby or Mayo who's on the upswing of his career.  

IIRC, people here were dreaming on Urrutia because he was a Cuban import and I think we were all excited about the possibility of having a Cuban prospect panning out.  That's different than trying to project a guy who's been drafted and developed and on the upswing of his career.  Which is different than someone like Phillips who, whatever.  Probably too old for AAA and, despite his struggles in the majors, should be able to handle minor league pitching.  

Maybe it's cause I'm two drinks in and I'm watching Sunday Night Football but I'm not sure I understand the correlation between a guy who's a retread like Phillips and worrying about how his success in AAA last year is something that should be taken into consideration when looking at other players.  

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

How much different is "pretty much all" vs. "most"? 

If there are some that don't, then I think that both most, and pretty much all, might both be applicable.

Pretty much ALL the " second tier" level prospects from ALL the teams work very hard to get to that rarified air.  Most folks wash out years before.

 

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Pretty much ALL the " second tier" level prospects from ALL the teams work very hard to get to that rarified air.  Most folks wash out years before.

 

Sounds like your life story.

[Just Regular]

Its a tough game.   Frazier might be washed up, but his career 12.4 WAR is an achievement its probably more likely that zero of Westburg, Norby and Ortiz will match than any of them.

A few 2-WAR seasons at the league minimum is still like a $50mm asset.