Is Voth a "top" 6th starter for the 2023 AL?

[Just Regular]

I know, this is kind of a Valedictorian of Summer School type honor.     There's a level at which I'm tempted to say if Elias has $$$ I'd rather it go to Michael Fulmer and/or Andrew Chafin than Michael Wacha, especially as a Wacha acquisition cuts into Grayson's OD rotation chances.     Early in camp, the Tyler Wells and Austin Voth quotes get extra parsing - for this exercise, I'm not bullpen-ing either guy yet.

SP role assignments, let's say Grayson Rodriguez is the best 5th starter in the league (please let him throw Game 4 or 5 down in TEX).    Here's one bucketing of SP6's, poking around the league.

Group 1 - So Good it makes you wonder if their Clubs have a competent Major Leaguer to trade (2): HOU Hunter Brown, MIN Bailey Ober

Group 2 - Well-known Names who when they were better pitchers in the past have completed seasons - BOS James Paxton, NYY Domingo German, SEA Chris Flexen, TEX Dane Dunning

Group 3 - Pitchers with talent but haven't thrown full SP years: TB Yonny Chirinos, TOR Mitchell White, CLE Cody Morris, LAA Chase Silseth

Group 4 - Wildcards and Scrubs - CHW Davis Martin, DET Joey Wentz, KCR Kris Bubic, OAK Drew Rucinski

Brown and Ober are easy, but do you trade Voth for anyone else above?

 

 

[ChuckS]

I'm wondering what the chances are that Voth begins the season in the rotation.  It's definitely not zero. 

I can see several scenarios.  1. Injury to another starter. 2. Grayson begins in Norfolk 3. Wells to the bullpen 4. Used as an opener or piggy-backing an opener. 

[wildcard]

51 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I'm wondering what the chances are that Voth begins the season in the rotation.  It's definitely not zero. 

I can see several scenarios.  1. Injury to another starter. 2. Grayson begins in Norfolk 3. Wells to the bullpen 4. Used as an opener or piggy-backing an opener. 

I can see #1 or #4.   Grayson has nothing to prove at AAA.  He may be the best pitcher in the rotation.   Wells could go to the pen but I don't see Voth pushing him there.

[Moose Milligan]

I like Voth, I'm hoping he continues to be a surprise for us this year after being a surprise last year.  3.04 ERA and a 3.96 FIP.  His strikeout rate is a little low, 7.8 but he's been as a high as 9.3 in his career. 3:1 k/bb ratio.

I know, I know, I know, his stuff isn't elite but whatever, not everyone can have G-Rod stuff.  If Voth can continue to do what he did last year, that's very valuable.  

[ThisIsBirdland]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I like Voth, I'm hoping he continues to be a surprise for us this year after being a surprise last year.  3.04 ERA and a 3.96 FIP.  His strikeout rate is a little low, 7.8 but he's been as a high as 9.3 in his career. 3:1 k/bb ratio.

I know, I know, I know, his stuff isn't elite but whatever, not everyone can have G-Rod stuff.  If Voth can continue to do what he did last year, that's very valuable.  

Agree with all this. Don't want to have to rely on it, but nice to have it as an option.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Agree with all this. Don't want to have to rely on it, but nice to have it as an option.

There were some articles written about whether or not his changes were sustainable.  I can't find the really good one I remembered from last summer but Voth talked about it in this ESPN article:  https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34238465/how-orioles-yes-baltimore-orioles-became-hottest-team-mlb

Quote

"I was kind of blown away by all the data that they have here," Voth said. "The video guys and how they can break down stats and pitches. And individually things for each pitcher. That was big for me."

I thought there was another article somewhere that delved deeper into the actual changes he made.  They appeared to be pretty minor on the surface but the results contrasted to what he was doing in Washington were pretty drastic.  

https://www.pitcherlist.com/whats-going-on-with-austin-voth/

This isn't the article I was thinking of where Voth talks about the slider but it's still a very good read.   IIRC they changed it a little bit to get some more horizontal break.  And they they also changed his pitch mix, too.

The curveball spin he has is elite.  

Quote

The pitch has an average spin rate of 2,985 RPM, good for 96th percentile in all of baseball in spin rate for curveballs, and it works really well. So far this year, opposing hitters have a .299 wOBA against the pitch with a 28.1% strikeout rate, a 29.7% chase rate, and a 29% CSW. Those aren’t ace numbers, but they’re rock solid and the best Voth has in his arsenal.

I think he's earned a spot in the 2023 rotation...or at the very least, it's his to lose in Spring Training.

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

There were some articles written about whether or not his changes were sustainable.  I can't find the really good one I remembered from last summer but Voth talked about it in this ESPN article:  https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34238465/how-orioles-yes-baltimore-orioles-became-hottest-team-mlb

I thought there was another article somewhere that delved deeper into the actual changes he made.  They appeared to be pretty minor on the surface but the results contrasted to what he was doing in Washington were pretty drastic.  

https://www.pitcherlist.com/whats-going-on-with-austin-voth/

This isn't the article I was thinking of where Voth talks about the slider but it's still a very good read.   IIRC they changed it a little bit to get some more horizontal break.  And they they also changed his pitch mix, too.

The curveball spin he has is elite.  

I think he's earned a spot in the 2023 rotation...or at the very least, it's his to lose in Spring Training.

My guess is he's in a two person competition with Wells, GRod, Hall and a trade/FA acquisition, behind Kremer, Bradish and Gibson. My guess is they'll end up with Wacha and GRod in the rotation and Voth in the pen, but I'd love for him to prove it wasn't a fluke and win a spot.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

My guess is he's in a two person competition with Wells, GRod, Hall and a trade/FA acquisition, behind Kremer, Bradish and Gibson. My guess is they'll end up with Wacha and GRod in the rotation and Voth in the pen, but I'd love for him to prove it wasn't a fluke and win a spot.

I can see all of these things happening, though I'm not sold on Wacha being ours yet.  

That said, it's nice to have more arms than rotation spots available and not having to settle for the Tyler Wilson's and Asher Wojciechowski's of the world.  Kremer and Bradish finished last year on strong notes, there's a lot to look forward to.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

There were some articles written about whether or not his changes were sustainable.  I can't find the really good one I remembered from last summer but Voth talked about it in this ESPN article:  https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34238465/how-orioles-yes-baltimore-orioles-became-hottest-team-mlb

I thought there was another article somewhere that delved deeper into the actual changes he made.  They appeared to be pretty minor on the surface but the results contrasted to what he was doing in Washington were pretty drastic.  

https://www.pitcherlist.com/whats-going-on-with-austin-voth/

This isn't the article I was thinking of where Voth talks about the slider but it's still a very good read.   IIRC they changed it a little bit to get some more horizontal break.  And they they also changed his pitch mix, too.

The curveball spin he has is elite.  

I think he's earned a spot in the 2023 rotation...or at the very least, it's his to lose in Spring Training.

Gibson, Kremer, Bradish, Grayson and Wells have all earned a spot in the rotation and are ahead of Voth IMO.   Voth biggest problem last year was not going deep in games.  He made 17 starts and only went more than 5 innings 4 times.

[MarCakes21]

17 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think he's earned a spot in the 2023 rotation...or at the very least, it's his to lose in Spring Training.

Interesting.  Bradish/Kremer/GRod/Gibson/Wells was how most people stacked up with Voth being the odd one out.  Is there something that says Wells is a better bullpen piece that Voth other than he's been there before?

I'd also rather have DL Hall as a SP for team value for one more shot.  Start the year in AAA as the next man up over whoever our swing man is.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Gibson, Kremer, Bradish, Grayson and Wells have all earned a spot in the rotation and are ahead of Voth IMO.   Voth biggest problem last year was not going deep in games.  He made 17 starts and only went more than 5 innings 4 times.

 

1 minute ago, MarCakes21 said:

Interesting.  Bradish/Kremer/GRod/Gibson/Wells was how most people stacked up with Voth being the odd one out.  Is there something that says Wells is a better bullpen piece that Voth other than he's been there before?

I'd also rather have DL Hall as a SP for team value for one more shot.  Start the year in AAA as the next man up over whoever our swing man is.

 

I think you guys need to prepare for the inevitable "Grayson Rodriguez doesn't head north with the club out of ST" saga that's headed our way and the service clock manipulation games that are to follow.  

[MarCakes21]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

 

I think you guys need to prepare for the inevitable "Grayson Rodriguez doesn't head north with the club out of ST" saga that's headed our way and the service clock manipulation games that are to follow.  

Not Voth related, but if this happens, than I think Elias would believe he's still manipulating service time and the incentives provided by the league wouldn't outweigh the cost.

However, I think a C who came from NCAA and is "old" might be different than a SP from HS or a SS from HS.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

 

I think you guys need to prepare for the inevitable "Grayson Rodriguez doesn't head north with the club out of ST" saga that's headed our way and the service clock manipulation games that are to follow.  

I think the O's 7-14 record last year in April took care of that.   Grayson is too good not be be in the rotation to begin the season.

[btdart20]

To answer the OP:  I’d take Silseth but Voth is fine compared to others in the #5/6 spot.

Is there a chance we use a 6-man rotation early on?  Other than spreading out Grayson’s innings, I don’t see the benefit.  But that could be a pretty big benefit in August.

[sportsfan8703]

It’s looking like Voth vs. Wells for the 5th spot. I just don’t see Wells holding up as a SP, or maybe even holding up in general, but his best chance is in the pen. I think they both are stretched out in ST and will compete. They may both end up in the OD rotation because of any injury or GR clock games.