FG’s Longenhagen top Os prospect list..Cowser at 12!

[dzorange]

58 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

They're really high on Jackson.  On the big Board, he's ahead of  Chourio -- one of the big pop prospects of 2022.

They've really knocked Grayson.  On the big Board he's currently in the 9th spot (and a ton of teams still to release).  Behind Espino and Bobby Miller currently.  Perez and Painter aren't ranked yet.  

I wouldn't be shocked if FG is the high watermark for Ortiz.  

Fangraphs has 6 Orioles is their top 100. Ortiz being their 6th ranked Oriole, it's probably in line with a lot of publications.

Edited February 3, 2023 by dzorange

[Frobby]

You have to hand it to Longenhagen, outside of @Tony-OH, he provides the most detailed write ups of the players and gives a strong idea of what he likes and doesn’t like about a prospect.   

As to the Grayson write-up, it’s pretty clear he was relying heavily on how Grayson looked after returning from the lat strain.   I’m not too concerned about that and expect the “real” Grayson to re-emerge this spring.   

He seems more negative on Westburg’s defense than most other evaluators, putting him in the same category as Norby defensively and overall.  I’m reserving judgment on that.  

I got the distinct impression that his write ups on Beaver and Fabian were based on how they’d looked in college.  Beaver in particular has made some swing changes as a pro that weren’t acknowledged in the article.  

Reading the write-ups as a whole, I came away with the impression that there’s a fair number of players with good upside in our system, who he’s rating conservatively until they break out.  Fair enough.  



 

[Sports Guy]

Seems a little silly to knock Grayson down because of how he looked after his injury.

That said, I also have no issue with Holliday ahead of him.

[Low Country Bird]

Interesting that they think Holliday's MLB ETA is 2028.  He'd be 24 by then.  If he's that highly rated and performs as expected in the minors, wouldn't you think he'd be up long before then?

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Low Country Bird said:

Interesting that they think Holliday's MLB ETA is 2028.  He'd be 24 by then.  If he's that highly rated and performs as expected in the minors, wouldn't you think he'd be up long before then?

That’s gotta be a mistake.  The absolute latest I could imagine would be 2026.  

Also, he’s got Seth Johnson debuting in 2023, which clearly won’t happen.  Even 2024 would be bullish.  

The more I look at these, many of the ETA’s look off base.  Westburg 2024, Norby 2025, Beavers & Fabian 2027.  I could go on.

 

Edited February 3, 2023 by Frobby

[glenn__davis]

2 minutes ago, Low Country Bird said:

Interesting that they think Holliday's MLB ETA is 2028.  He'd be 24 by then.  If he's that highly rated and performs as expected in the minors, wouldn't you think he'd be up long before then?

I assume that's a misprint.  It doesn't make sense to have him ranked that high but think it will take him 5 more years to get here.  Even Basallo they have as 2027.

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I assume that's a misprint.  It doesn't make sense to have him ranked that high but think it will take him 5 more years to get here.  Even Basallo they have as 2027.

Holliday is our Correa and will be pushing for MLB time next year. I’d predict a June 15 call up in 2024 to be able to get 6.5 years of control over him. 
 

I could see Basallo taking till 2027. Catchers usually take more time. Plus, we’ll probably just have vet back ups while Adley is here. 

[Big Mac]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s gotta be a mistake.  The absolute latest I could imagine would be 2026.  

Also, he’s got Seth Johnson debuting in 2023, which clearly won’t happen.  Even 2024 would be bullish.  

The more I look at these, many of the ETA’s look off base.  Westburg 2024, Norby 2025, Beavers & Fabian 2027.  I could go on.

 

There is a note at the beginning of the article that he uses the year a player needs to be added to the 40 man for the ETA and that, while they manually adjust in some cases, that is where those dates come from.  From looking at our list it doesn't look to me like any manual adjustments were made for ETAs. 

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Holliday is our Correa and will be pushing for MLB time next year. I’d predict a June 15 call up in 2024 to be able to get 6.5 years of control over him. 
 

I could see Basallo taking till 2027. Catchers usually take more time. Plus, we’ll probably just have vet back ups while Adley is here. 

Right.  My point was that no way would Basallo be expected to move faster than Holliday.

[Just Regular]

Multi-Inning Relief Pitcher projections put on:

DL Hall, Chayce McDermott, Noah Denoyer, Carlos Tavera and Jean Pinto

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Low Country Bird said:

Interesting that they think Holliday's MLB ETA is 2028.  He'd be 24 by then.  If he's that highly rated and performs as expected in the minors, wouldn't you think he'd be up long before then?

If he’s not ready by 2025, either he’s a bust or injuries have been a huge issue.

[deward]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If he’s not ready by 2025, either he’s a bust or injuries have been a huge issue.

If an 18 year prospect isn't ready after 2 seasons in the minors, then he's a bust? He'll be 21 for the entire 2025 season. That seems....aggressive. 

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If he’s not ready by 2025, either he’s a bust or injuries have been a huge issue.

By bust, I assume you mean a guy who’s been somewhat disappointing for a 1:1 pick.   If you’re saying he’d never be any good if he needed 3 full years in the minors, then I’d disagree.   Take a guy like Austin Riley.   Drafted in 2015, didn’t debut until 2019, always healthy.  He’s been worth 12 rWAR through his age 25 season.  He’ll probably end up having a better career than the average 1:1 (mean of 21.6 rWAR, median around 15 rWAR).   

I do agree that 2025 is a more likely ETA than 2026.   But I’ve seen several posters who assume he’ll be up in the second half of 2024.  That could happen, but the odds are well under 50/50.   
 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, deward said:

If an 18 year prospect isn't ready after 2 seasons in the minors, then he's a bust? He'll be 21 for the entire 2025 season. That seems....aggressive. 

He was the #1 pick. #1 picks who live up to their potential move fast, HS or not.

He absolutely should be in the majors by 2025. If he is struggling to hit in the lower minors, he was over drafted.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

By bust, I assume you mean a guy who’s been somewhat disappointing for a 1:1 pick.   If you’re saying he’d never be any good if he needed 3 full years in the minors, then I’d disagree.   Take a guy like Austin Riley.   Drafted in 2015, didn’t debut until 2019, always healthy.  He’s been worth 12 rWAR through his age 25 season.  He’ll probably end up having a better career than the average 1:1 (mean of 21.6 rWAR, median around 15 rWAR).   

I do agree that 2025 is a more likely ETA than 2026.   But I’ve seen several posters who assume he’ll be up in the second half of 2024.  That could happen, but the odds are well under 50/50.   
 

Riley had some defensive issues iirc and he wasn’t picked #1.