Jackson Holliday 2023

[baltfan]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That is not the most likely scenario.

The Os having moved him through the system fast and gotten him to AAA j his first full season to then make him stay there for a full calendar year.

It’s not happening. He may not make the OD roster but he isn’t going to be in the minors for 5 months either.

I think they want to try to get a pick, regardless.  If they start him down, he will stay down like Gunnar because they will be sorting through others.  This trip to AAA was a cup of coffee.  If he is in Baltimore, he starts the season here.  The one way I can see that happening is that the Orioles are worried that they need another OBP guy with great bat to ball skills. Otherwise, there is just far too much talent ahead of him and the Orioles need to see what they have.  It takes time to see that and playing time. A guy like Ortiz probably doesn’t get that if Holliday is up

Edited September 22, 2023 by baltfan

[waroriole]

11 hours ago, banks703 said:

I’ll go on record now and state that I think he’s going to break camp with the O’s. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t go to the AFL (have they announced who in the org will play in the AFL yet?) but I think he will work at 2B over the winter and ends up being the opening day 2B. His ability to hit is quite literally too good to keep him down for any reason unless they are just disgusted by his defense, which I don’t think will be the case…at 2B. I think we go into 24 with Holliday as the presumed favorite to win ROY.  

I’d be very surprised if he goes to the AFL. He just had the longest season of his life. He’s already in AAA. The pitching he’d see in AFL won’t be anywhere near AAA ability. He should rest up for the spring. 

[banks703]

10 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I think they want to try to get a pick, regardless.  If they start him down, he will stay down like Gunnar because they will be sorting through others.  This trip to AAA was a cup of coffee.  If he is in Baltimore, he starts the season here.  The one way I can see that happening is that the Orioles are worried that they need another OBP guy with great bat to ball skills. Otherwise, there is just far too much talent ahead of him and the Orioles need to see what they have.  It takes time to see that and playing time. A guy like Ortiz probably doesn’t get that if Holliday is up

I don’t think anyone in the minors is ahead of him. The only guy that I would consider in front of Holliday is Gunnar. Of course that changes somewhat if/when they move one of them, which I believe they will do and it will be Holliday who they move.

There is no better option and as we saw with Gunnar at the start of this year, if they consider Holliday one of the best 13 position players, he will be on the roster. 

Edited September 22, 2023 by banks703

[Sports Guy]

You guys are all too wrapped up in the pick thing.

There is zero chance, outside of a string of injuries or really awful play, that he is held back so he has rookie status in 2025.

I guess the one scenario that could cause them to hold back is if the team sucks next year. If they start off terribly and are essentially out of the race by early May, maybe that causes them to hold him back.

But really, outside of injuries, those 2 scenarios are pretty far fetched.

You just  have to pay attention to how they are developing him. They didn’t push him this quickly through the minors to make him have 600 at bats at that level.  It’s just not happening. It’s completely illogical.

[RZNJ]

It seems like many are ignoring the performance aspect.  Is he even ready to earn ROY next year?    A lot depends on his performance in ST (hard to believe he makes the team no matter how well he does) and what he does at Norfolk.   One critical factor in his favor is that he bats LH.   The first tea leave before ST is to see if and what kind of LH hitting IF is acquired this off-season.  I would expect more of a bench type, stop gap, cheap player with Holliday in the wings.   Also, do they see Westburg as a long term option at 2B or 3B or as someone who plays all over.   I would not expect Westburg entrenched at 2B with Holliday in wait and that being his most likely future position here.   

[btdart20]

AFL - I doubt it.  Not for rest, but for strength/conditioning and overall athleticism.

2025 isn't really part of the 'plan' for Holliday.  Something went sideways if that's when he debuts.

For 2024 - I wish it was as simple as "if he's ready, then he makes the OD team."  It could be but Holliday has to force that type of decision in ST.  (We know they value the LHH.  And I doubt they bring in a FA LHH MI this off-season.)  From a FO perspective, I think they value team control over the draft pick in Holliday's case.  Ideally, it would be a both/and type situation where the long-term isn't really part of the equation.  But the one with the gold makes the rules.  And this is where JA's and Holliday's golden rules collide...  Of all of our prospects, Holliday is probably the least motivated to sign an extension.  The extra pick would be great, but the odds are slim for any prospect (better than most, but still slim).  But if Elias has an excuse to sneak in an extra year of team control (while still competing in 2024), then that's his play.

[Can_of_corn]

If he makes his debut next season he might not even be the youngest player in the league.

More and more teams are going back to promoting elite prospects at a younger age.

I've been beating this drum for years, development can and will continue at the major league level.

How old was Griffey, A-Rod?, Soto, Harper, Machado?  Was their development hurt by getting promoted aggressively?

Some players need to methodically advance through the minor leagues, some don't. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

I’d be very surprised if he goes to the AFL. He just had the longest season of his life. He’s already in AAA. The pitching he’d see in AFL won’t be anywhere near AAA ability. He should rest up for the spring. 

I also agree it’s unlikely.  

[LookinUp]

If the goal is to feature the studs, I can see an infield of Mayo, Henderson, Holliday and Basallo on opening day of 2025.

What happens on the way is anyone's guess.

[baltfan]

2 hours ago, banks703 said:

I don’t think anyone in the minors is ahead of him. The only guy that I would consider in front of Holliday is Gunnar. Of course that changes somewhat if/when they move one of them, which I believe they will do and it will be Holliday who they move.

There is no better option and as we saw with Gunnar at the start of this year, if they consider Holliday one of the best 13 position players, he will be on the roster. 

Of course he is the best player in the minors, but there is more to it than that. There could be others ahead of him because they are more likely to contribute sooner at the MLB level.  The Orioles are balancing four things: 1) seeing what they have in Ortiz, Westburg, and Norby, 2) what is best for the team in terms of wins for the season, 3) what is best for the development of Holliday, and 4) where Holliday is more likely to win ROY for the extra pick.  Of course, not all of these are equally weighted, but I do think its folly to presume the Orioles are sure Holliday will be better over the course of an MLB season next year vs. Ortiz or Norby.  In the long run, it's a no brainer, but we are just talking about next year.  Holliday has some issues in the field and also hits a lot of groundballs that aren't going to be hits at the major league level. If there wasn't an Ortiz or Norby ready to go, for sure he would be up next year.  But, that is not the position that we find ourselves in.

[waroriole]

Speaking of AFL

 

[banks703]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Speaking of AFL

 

I know it was a stretch that they would send Holliday but I am still somewhat surprised that he isn't going out there to play 2B. 

[ShoelesJoe]

6 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I know it was a stretch that they would send Holliday but I am still somewhat surprised that he isn't going out there to play 2B. 

I don't think there's any upside to Holliday going to the AFL. It's not like the Orioles need to see more of him to know what they've got, or to showcase him for possible trades. If he's great them okay that's what we expected. If he struggles then maybe he (or the team) starts to doubt his status as the #1 prospect. He might even get hurt and delay his promotion to the big league club. 

Let him rest. Let him decompress. He'll have enough baseball in his life over the next fifteen years.

[banks703]

29 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Of course he is the best player in the minors, but there is more to it than that. There could be others ahead of him because they are more likely to contribute sooner at the MLB level.  The Orioles are balancing four things: 1) seeing what they have in Ortiz, Westburg, and Norby, 2) what is best for the team in terms of wins for the season, 3) what is best for the development of Holliday, and 4) where Holliday is more likely to win ROY for the extra pick.  Of course, not all of these are equally weighted, but I do think its folly to presume the Orioles are sure Holliday will be better over the course of an MLB season next year vs. Ortiz or Norby.  In the long run, it's a no brainer, but we are just talking about next year.  Holliday has some issues in the field and also hits a lot of groundballs that aren't going to be hits at the major league level. If there wasn't an Ortiz or Norby ready to go, for sure he would be up next year.  But, that is not the position that we find ourselves in.

I'm a big fan of Joey Ortiz but I do not think that he (and especially not Norby) factor as much into how they handle Holliday as I would like.

In regards to the ROY/extra pick scenario - Position Player accolades are almost exclusively based on offensive production. I love me some Joey Ortiz (not in that way but not there's anything wrong with that) but I don't think that anyone in baseball is torn over who is going to be the more premier offensive player between Ortiz and Holliday. Holliday is never going to be the fielder that Joey is already but with Gunnar's emergence at SS this year, both of Holliday and Ortiz at SS (defensively) are less of a priority. Going forward it's going to be a matter of who are the best 13 players. In my opinion, Holliday is already one of their best 13 with the bat. The defensive stuff becomes far less of a concern with him at 2B and if the kid goes .310/.380/.450 for an .830 OPS and steals 25 - 30 bases with 12 - 15 homers.. he's going to pace the league for ROY. 

2B puts him in the lineup (picture an eventual top of the order in Holliday, Adley, Gunnar... that's absurdly good) from Day 1 in 2024 and it improves their team. Essentially they would be replacing Frazier with Holliday. It doesn't make ANY sense for them to delay a promotion to Baltimore for Holliday unless they hold him down in Norfolk until September and I promise you, his hitting will make that impossible for them to do. He is the best bat-to-ball guy in their system, which includes the big club. I think he could potentially win ROY even if they wait a month to promote him but they won't do that because they learned their lesson with Adley last year. If a guy is going to challenge (or be a favorite to win ROY) you aren't going to hold him down because of the pick. And they're not going to hold Holliday down for Ortiz or Norby... as much as I like Ortiz as a prospect and player, it's just not going to happen. 

[banks703]

7 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I don't think there's any upside to Holliday going to the AFL. It's not like the Orioles need to see more of him to know what they've got, or to showcase him for possible trades. If he's great them okay that's what we expected. If he struggles then maybe he (or the team) starts to doubt his status as the #1 prospect. He might even get hurt and delay his promotion to the big league club. 

Let him rest. Let him decompress. He'll have enough baseball in his life over the next fifteen years.

That's probably accurate but it's not about the O's seeing more of him. It's about getting reps in games.