Adam Frazier 2023

[banks703]

1 minute ago, SemperFi said:

Sounds similar to JJ Hardy who came over the top with a long but very accurate throwing motion.  You've obviously seen him play more than I and I value your input as I can remember vividly remember watching RM's lack of arm at SS and then 3rd in Sarasota.  

We should all have long throwing motions if we had good coaching and followed what was taught!!

I think Elias spent a lot of time, effort and money scouting and then drafting him 1/1 to play SS and have a difficult time believing his arm is suddenly a big issue.

I don't see JJ Hardy in Jackson Holliday. To be honest, I'm not sure who he looks like at SS. He kind of reminds me a little bit of Adam Frazier. So, there's that. 

 

 

At about 38 seconds in the above video you can see what I mean about going to the hand-side. He makes the throw and actually records the out but I'd be curious to know what the runner's sprint speed was on the play. It looked like it took him close to 5 seconds to get down the line as a left-handed hitter, which ain't good. He makes contact at 38 seconds and his foot is on the bag at 43 seconds. I'd guess it's something like 4.8 from contact to the bag, which would put him somewhere in Nelson Cruz/Trey Mancini territory. So, not exactly a burner. 

 

Holliday's footwork on the play is solid yet unremarkable but you can also see on that play that he doesn't appear to be exceptionally quick to a ball that two-hopped him waist-high. His throwing motion is a bit longer than you want for a middle infielder, especially for a SS but that's partially due to his lack of arm strength. He has to be a little long to generate throwing power. You can see that he does square his shoulders to first to make the throw (which actually reminds me a little bit of Cal/Tom Emanski) but I would like to see a quicker exchange from my SS.

Yes, it's one play and he was shaded up the middle. Some of what is needed to improve is his age of course and professional baseball will drill the muscle memory and instincts into him. His calling card is his bat, which probably plays right now at the Major League level. Can he improve and stay at SS? Certainly and I hope that he does. I really do. As he matures physically and mechanically he's going to get better. The sky is literally the limit for him as a prospect but I just personally see him better suited for 2B if he remains in the infield. 

 

If we look at how they've managed personnel since Elias took over they have stock piled valuable middle infielders. Urias was signed as a SS. Gunnar drafted as a SS. Mateo claimed as a SS. JW drafted as a SS. Ortiz drafted as a SS. Hernaiz drafted as a SS. Prieto signed as a 2B. Norby drafted as a 2B. Bencosme signed as a SS. Holliday drafted as a SS. Maikol Hernandez signed as a SS. Luis Arias signed as a SS. Carter Young drafted as a SS. 

 

In college baseball teams will take as many middle infielders as they can because they are typically the more skilled players overall and it's an easier transition for them to move to other positions. That's clearly been Elias and Co.'s strategy with drafting and signing guys. 

 

 

[7Mo]

4 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I don't see JJ Hardy in Jackson Holliday. To be honest, I'm not sure who he looks like at SS. He kind of reminds me a little bit of Adam Frazier. So, there's that. 

 

 

At about 38 seconds in the above video you can see what I mean about going to the hand-side. He makes the throw and actually records the out but I'd be curious to know what the runner's sprint speed was on the play. It looked like it took him close to 5 seconds to get down the line as a left-handed hitter, which ain't good. He makes contact at 38 seconds and his foot is on the bag at 43 seconds. I'd guess it's something like 4.8 from contact to the bag, which would put him somewhere in Nelson Cruz/Trey Mancini territory. So, not exactly a burner. 

 

Holliday's footwork on the play is solid yet unremarkable but you can also see on that play that he doesn't appear to be exceptionally quick to a ball that two-hopped him waist-high. His throwing motion is a bit longer than you want for a middle infielder, especially for a SS but that's partially due to his lack of arm strength. He has to be a little long to generate throwing power. You can see that he does square his shoulders to first to make the throw (which actually reminds me a little bit of Cal/Tom Emanski) but I would like to see a quicker exchange from my SS.

Yes, it's one play and he was shaded up the middle. Some of what is needed to improve is his age of course and professional baseball will drill the muscle memory and instincts into him. His calling card is his bat, which probably plays right now at the Major League level. Can he improve and stay at SS? Certainly and I hope that he does. I really do. As he matures physically and mechanically he's going to get better. The sky is literally the limit for him as a prospect but I just personally see him better suited for 2B if he remains in the infield. 

 

If we look at how they've managed personnel since Elias took over they have stock piled valuable middle infielders. Urias was signed as a SS. Gunnar drafted as a SS. Mateo claimed as a SS. JW drafted as a SS. Ortiz drafted as a SS. Hernaiz drafted as a SS. Prieto signed as a 2B. Norby drafted as a 2B. Bencosme signed as a SS. Holliday drafted as a SS. Maikol Hernandez signed as a SS. Luis Arias signed as a SS. Carter Young drafted as a SS. 

 

In college baseball teams will take as many middle infielders as they can because they are typically the more skilled players overall and it's an easier transition for them to move to other positions. That's clearly been Elias and Co.'s strategy with drafting and signing guys. 

 

 

Are you going to mention that his plant foot was skidding and he was throwing off balance? Or do you call that poor footwork?

[banks703]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not quite as down on you with the balls in the hole, but I need to see him make more of those plays before having a stronger position. Second base could be his position at some point, but I think they are going to make him play his way off that position. a lot will depend on the talent at hand on the roster as to where he plays. While Gunnar has the better arm, I still think he's going to outgrow SS and be better at 3B, but could be years away. 

I think a lot of people are down on Ortiz because his very SSS and usage at the major league level. Ortiz to me is the best defensive SS in the system and while he too doesn't have that pure Mateo arm strength, he's more consistent error wise and as much range or more than Mateo side to side. 

 

I agree 100% with all of this regarding all three of Gunnar, Ortiz and Holliday. I do think that leadership is going to give Holliday every opportunity to grow through the system as a SS and I believe that Gunnar is ultimately going to end up at 3B although I do see the physical comparison to Cal and Corey Seager. 

To me, Joey Ortiz is the SS of the now and of the future only he doesn't offer the stardom that Holliday and Gunnar do. He's going to be Jack Wilson for someone for the next ten years whereas both Gunnar and Holliday look like franchise changing cornerstones. Barring a trade, 2025's best infield alignment for the O's is Gunnar at 3rd, Joey at SS and Holliday at 2B. I don't know what that means for Norby, Mayo and JW but it's obviously a good problem to have. Elias and Co. have stockpiled the system with Middle Infield talent. At some point some of those players are going to be used in deals to acquire players at positions of need (namely pitching). When that happens is anyone's guess. 

[banks703]

5 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Are you going to mention that his plant foot was skidding and he was throwing off balance? Or do you call that poor footwork?

I actually meant to point that out, yeah but keep having to go back and forth to work stuff and didn't realize that I hadn't. Good catch and fair criticism of my observation. It wasn't intentional and I certainly am not out to poopoo on the number 1 prospect in baseball. I wouldn't say that he was throwing off-balance though. I mentioned that he squared his shoulders to first just fine. 

The sliding foot is what it is. He slipped a little but in truth, on that play I'd like to see him come in on the ball more than letting it play him into the hole. With time and reps and focus on his profession he's going to recognize those plays and be better at making them. He's 19. Who he is today is not who he is going to be in two years or five years. 

I sourced that video 1. because it was the first one that came up in a google search and 2. to show that he isn't exceptionally quick to the ball right now and his throwing motion is a bit long. Both are areas that will improve as he gets more time in his profession and advances through the system. 

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I actually meant to point that out, yeah but keep having to go back and forth to work stuff and didn't realize that I hadn't. Good catch and fair criticism of my observation. It wasn't intentional and I certainly am not out to poopoo on the number 1 prospect in baseball. I wouldn't say that he was throwing off-balance though. I mentioned that he squared his shoulders to first just fine. 

The sliding foot is what it is. He slipped a little but in truth, on that play I'd like to see him come in on the ball more than letting it play him into the hole. With time and reps and focus on his profession he's going to recognize those plays and be better at making them. He's 19. Who he is today is not who he is going to be in two years or five years. 

I sourced that video 1. because it was the first one that came up in a google search and 2. to show that he isn't exceptionally quick to the ball right now and his throwing motion is a bit long. Both are areas that will improve as he gets more time in his profession and advances through the system. 

Can't agree with your conclusions at all. To watch that play and argue he's not quick to the ball, or that his throwing motion is too long, I can't agree at all and I'd be surprised if many other people did either. 

[SemperFi]

36 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I don't see JJ Hardy in Jackson Holliday. To be honest, I'm not sure who he looks like at SS. He kind of reminds me a little bit of Adam Frazier. So, there's that. 

 

 

At about 38 seconds in the above video you can see what I mean about going to the hand-side. He makes the throw and actually records the out but I'd be curious to know what the runner's sprint speed was on the play. It looked like it took him close to 5 seconds to get down the line as a left-handed hitter, which ain't good. He makes contact at 38 seconds and his foot is on the bag at 43 seconds. I'd guess it's something like 4.8 from contact to the bag, which would put him somewhere in Nelson Cruz/Trey Mancini territory. So, not exactly a burner. 

 

Holliday's footwork on the play is solid yet unremarkable but you can also see on that play that he doesn't appear to be exceptionally quick to a ball that two-hopped him waist-high. His throwing motion is a bit longer than you want for a middle infielder, especially for a SS but that's partially due to his lack of arm strength. He has to be a little long to generate throwing power. You can see that he does square his shoulders to first to make the throw (which actually reminds me a little bit of Cal/Tom Emanski) but I would like to see a quicker exchange from my SS.

Yes, it's one play and he was shaded up the middle. Some of what is needed to improve is his age of course and professional baseball will drill the muscle memory and instincts into him. His calling card is his bat, which probably plays right now at the Major League level. Can he improve and stay at SS? Certainly and I hope that he does. I really do. As he matures physically and mechanically he's going to get better. The sky is literally the limit for him as a prospect but I just personally see him better suited for 2B if he remains in the infield. 

 

If we look at how they've managed personnel since Elias took over they have stock piled valuable middle infielders. Urias was signed as a SS. Gunnar drafted as a SS. Mateo claimed as a SS. JW drafted as a SS. Ortiz drafted as a SS. Hernaiz drafted as a SS. Prieto signed as a 2B. Norby drafted as a 2B. Bencosme signed as a SS. Holliday drafted as a SS. Maikol Hernandez signed as a SS. Luis Arias signed as a SS. Carter Young drafted as a SS. 

 

In college baseball teams will take as many middle infielders as they can because they are typically the more skilled players overall and it's an easier transition for them to move to other positions. That's clearly been Elias and Co.'s strategy with drafting and signing guys. 

 

 

Thanks for taking the time and effort to respond.  I've seen him play a couple times but not difficult plays, it's tough to analyze from one play.  As an old coach what I liked most  was his footwork at contact even though he was shading and anticipating the ball to his glove side-I thought he was quick adjusting then setting his feet to throw and squaring his shoulders.  

To me it's really difficult to judge arm strength (unless a Machado or the flip a RMc) unless I am in-person but I'll take your assessment.  Hopefully this is a moot point and there will be less of a logjam in a couple weeks.  

[banks703]

53 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Can't agree with your conclusions at all. To watch that play and argue he's not quick to the ball, or that his throwing motion is too long, I can't agree at all and I'd be surprised if many other people did either. 

Quickness is absolutely measurable and on that play by any professional fielding standard he is not exactly quick and his angle to the ball was not awesome. I appreciate that you don't agree but thems the facts.

If we want to cherry-pick his being a 19 year old in his first full season of professional baseball, then sure he's not Pablo Sandoval making that play. 

Here's Wander Franco as a 20 year old two years back (a year older than Jackson Holliday is right now) on a similar but more difficult play with a much faster runner in Kike Hernandez:

https://www.mlb.com/video/wander-franco-s-smooth-defense

If you can't see the difference in these two plays then I'm not sure what to tell ya. Again, I'm not intentionally poopooing on Jackson Holliday. He's the number 1 prospect in baseball for a reason. The difference in defense between Franco and Holliday at a similar age is pretty noticeable. Franco made that throw while his momentum continued into the hold. He didn't have to set his feet to generate power to get the ball to first because of his arm strength. Jackson Holliday simply does not have that tool in his shed and quite literally never will, which is fine. His bat is what makes him a superstar. He's just not going to be an elite defender at SS and again it's my opinion that he will eventually be moved to 2B or CF. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by banks703

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Quickness is absolutely measurable and on that play by any professional fielding standard he is not exactly quick and his angle to the ball was not awesome. I appreciate that you don't agree but thems the facts.

If we want to cherry-pick his being a 19 year old in his first full season of professional baseball, then sure he's not Pablo Sandoval making that play. 

Here's Wander Franco as a 20 year old two years back (a year older than Jackson Holliday is right now) on a similar but more difficult play with a much faster runner in Kike Hernandez:

https://www.mlb.com/video/wander-franco-s-smooth-defense

If you can't see the difference in these two plays then I'm not sure what to tell ya. Again, I'm not intentionally poopooing on Jackson Holliday. He's the number 1 prospect in baseball for a reason. The difference in defense between Franco and Holliday at a similar age is pretty noticeable. Franco made that throw while his momentum continued into the hold. He didn't have to set his feet to generate power to get the ball to first because of his arm strength. Jackson Holliday simply does not have that tool in his shed and quite literally never will, which is fine. His bat is what makes him a superstar. He's just not going to be an elite defender at SS and again it's my opinion that he will eventually be moved to 2B or CF. 

This is the Adam Frazier thread, not the Jackson Holliday thread. 

[banks703]

21 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

Thanks for taking the time and effort to respond.  I've seen him play a couple times but not difficult plays, it's tough to analyze from one play.  As an old coach what I liked most  was his footwork at contact even though he was shading and anticipating the ball to his glove side-I thought he was quick adjusting then setting his feet to throw and squaring his shoulders.  

To me it's really difficult to judge arm strength (unless a Machado or the flip a RMc) unless I am in-person but I'll take your assessment.  Hopefully this is a moot point and there will be less of a logjam in a couple weeks.  

I've not seen a lot of him in person so I have to defer to @Tony-OH for more input on arm strength. To me, it's 55 when he can let it fly but that's perfect scenario plays. 50 in-game fielding as Tony stated is probably fair and again I defer to Tony's input on that. He is sure-handed. His footwork is advanced for his age. It's not great right now but it will get better. He's got ++ speed (which is also why I think he could eventually move to CF) but he's just not super rangey at the position or relatively quick to the ball side to side. His fielding instincts will improve and on a play like the one in the video he will eventually charge it more to cut off the hop so that he's receiving the ball more chest level which would keep him from having to bend over on the play. 

He's a great talent and the O's are obviously in a fantastic place with him in the system. I just think he ends up somewhere other than SS. That's just my opinion. 

[banks703]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

This is the Adam Frazier thread, not the Jackson Holliday thread. 

Yeah yeah I know. I was just thinking that as I responded to another poster's response. 

 

I did state that I see a little bit of Adam Frazier in Jackson Holliday. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, forphase1 said:

Setting aside the homerun, Frazier has not been playing good baseball.  Unfortunately I think you are right,  and that Frazier won't get benched,  even though his performance warrants it.  Frazier is the crack drug, the vet player that Elias and Hyde fall in love with and just can't quit each year.   See Odor last year,  and now Frazier.  If called up I doubt Ortiz gets the playing time he should. 

 

Sure,  some of Mateo/Frazier/Urias will need moved somehow.   Personally I'd get rid of Frazier first, then Mateo, then Urias, depending on what we could get for them.  I'd make Urias our first backup option/utility guy, with Mateo only coming off of the bench if still on the roster... never or very rarely starting.

Frazier hasn’t played that well lately, but he’s been far better than Mateo has been over the last 2+ months.  He’s not an automatic out.  

Frazier at his coldest had a 24-game stretch where he posted a .480 OPS.   That’s now over and he’s been at 1.090 over his last 8 games.  Mateo has now posted a .376 OPS over 50 games.  He’s great defensively, so the O’s have been patient with his bat, but this has gotten beyond ridiculous.  If one of the two is going to sit on a regular basis, it has to be Mateo.  
 

[foxfield]

17 minutes ago, interloper said:

This is the Adam Frazier thread, not the Jackson Holliday thread. 

 

7 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Yeah yeah I know. I was just thinking that as I responded to another poster's response. 

 

I did state that I see a little bit of Adam Frazier in Jackson Holliday. 

I think it's hard to tell em apart.  I generally look for the cig and know that's Frazier.

[banks703]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Frazier hasn’t played that well lately, but he’s been far better than Mateo has been over the last 2+ months.  He’s not an automatic out.  

Frazier at his coldest had a 24-game stretch where he posted a .480 OPS.   That’s now over and he’s been at 1.090 over his last 8 games.  Mateo has now posted a .376 OPS over 50 games.  He’s great defensively, so the O’s have been patient with his bat, but this has gotten beyond ridiculous.  If one of the two is going to sit on a regular basis, it has to be Mateo.  
 

I'm not allowed to add any more reactions apparently so I can't upvote you but I agree. I don't think Frazier has been as bad as some suggest and I think that even though his struggles have been well documented this year, I think that Jorge has actually been worse than his numbers because his defense has not been as good as last year. I had really high hopes for Jorge coming into this year and I feel for him as this is going to be what, organization #3 that has given up on him but as you've stated in the past, he kind of is who he is at this point. The team simply cannot survive his .147 BA since May 1st. 

[Bemorewins]

6 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Dude, if you want to hijack every thread you can talking about pitching, you're off to an awesome start.

 

Dude, I find your post very humorous. As you feel duty bound to police my posting habits.

I have read in multiple threads today by multiple posters (some of them making multiple posts in the same thread) comments that were not pertaining to the original posts and off topic. And yet you have not said one mumbling word.

I most readily admit from time to time beating a dead horse about our need for starting pitching. And at times my comments are off topic. 

But I ask for a little consistency from you.

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Frazier hasn’t played that well lately, but he’s been far better than Mateo has been over the last 2+ months.  He’s not an automatic out.  

Frazier at his coldest had a 24-game stretch where he posted a .480 OPS.   That’s now over and he’s been at 1.090 over his last 8 games.  Mateo has now posted a .376 OPS over 50 games.  He’s great defensively, so the O’s have been patient with his bat, but this has gotten beyond ridiculous.  If one of the two is going to sit on a regular basis, it has to be Mateo.  
 

Frazier has been a better bat than Mateo, no doubt.  I'd keep Mateo over him though for a defensive replacement and pinch runner.  If I had to start one,  I'd rather it be Frazier. But I like the value of Mateo on the bench more.  In my perfect world neither would start again over Westburg, Henderson or Ortiz, with Urias taking a start here and there as needed.   In that scenario Frazier isn't needed imo.