Joey Ortiz 2023

[Bemorewins]

17 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Doesn’t seem like Kjerstad is taking to 1B. And I’m not talking about Westburg as a primary 1B, I think he could be used there similarly to how Urias has been lately. I think Mayo will be the 1B, but will also DH with Kjerstad in RF.

Just to illustrate, you can have all 4 players start 140 games:

- Gunnar: 130 3B, 10 DH

- Holliday: 110 2B, 22 SS, 8 DH

- Ortiz: 140 SS

- Westburg: 52 2B, 32 3B, 30 1B, 16 LF, 10 DH

And that would still leave 132 starts at 1B for Mayo with the rest of his at DH. 

Now, it would never break down perfectly like that and maybe Gunnar and Holliday hit LHP well enough that they should be starting 150+ games if they are fully healthy. Maybe Ortiz doesn’t hit enough and should only be playing 100-130 games when the pitching matchup is favorable or if we don’t have an extreme FB SP (e.g. Wells). But there are always injuries, so one starting-caliber player on the bench can easily get a full season of playing time if the roster is flexible enough defensively (and defensive flexibility has been a big focus of the Orioles’ development program). 

Yeah, it’s probably Mayo to man 1B. IMO with the elite prospects/players that the O’s have and are developing for each position, a super sub kind of guy is not really needed. 

IMO that kind of thing is more of a luxury and not a necessity with the type of roster that we are building. To me, a better use to extract maximum value for the player who is not penciled in as an everyday regular is for the purpose of trade in order to help us acquire the piece a top the rotation that we are currently missing. 

I believe that Ortiz may have more value than Urias do to service time, age, and ability to play SS at a very high level. Thus, it makes more sense to me to retain Urias for a utility role and trade Ortiz.

Just my 2 cents.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Depends on what we get for him. If the difference between him and Cowser/Hicks/Kjerstad is less than the difference between our worst starter and whatever starting pitcher we can get for him+ I'm moving him. Doesn't matter that he switch hits or hits 25 home runs or whatever.

Also, he's had like one and a half good seasons and isn't getting younger. For most of his career he was like 0-1 WAR per year.

What are we going to get for Santander that is better than what our OD 2024 roster is looking like?  We're not.  He's more valuable to us, than a trade package he'd bring back.  Contenders don't trade players like Santander for a 7th inning guy.  The ideal situation is that Santander plays and keeps performing through 2024, and we get a draft pick for him.  In that scenario we'd good value from him as a player for 1.5 years and also a pick.  That's worth more to us in a contending situaiton, than it would be to trade him for a prospect return.  

[geschinger]

29 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

4) As noted, SSS with Ortiz in MLB, but in AAA he has been putting up similar numbers (.941 OPS in Norfolk) to what Westburg (.939 OPS in Norfolk) and Cowser (.996 OPS in Norfolk) had been.  That at least gives the appearance/hope that Ortiz could have similar success.  Sure, we all know players whose AAA success never translates to the majors, so it's far from a sure thing, but the possibility is certainly there.  If the Os are able and willing to 'experiment' with Westburg and Cowser, they could do the same for Ortiz, and would likely HELP the club if he takes playing time from Frazier or Mateo.

Personally I don't want us to trade Ortiz as I want him to be our starting SS until Holiday is ready.  

I agree with this.  Seems like Ortiz's offense gets minimized some on here in comparison to Westburg.  Westburg's done it longer (630 ABs at in AAA) but Ortiz has arguably been just as if not more productive in his 278 AAA ABs.  

The W-L record probably precludes the team from doing what I'd like to see (even though I suspect it would be the most productive approach) which is Westburg, Ortiz, Henderson playing every day and maybe moving around the diamond some.  

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I agree with this.  Seems like Ortiz's offense gets minimized some on here in comparison to Westburg.  Westburg's done it longer (630 ABs at in AAA) but Ortiz has arguably been just as if not more productive in his 278 AAA ABs.  

The W-L record probably precludes the team from doing what I'd like to see (even though I suspect it would be the most productive approach) which is Westburg, Ortiz, Henderson playing every day and maybe moving around the diamond some.  

Problem is Ortiz needs to beat out Urias, and Urias has been solid. Westburg 2B, Henderson SS, Urias 3B is a solid infield with all three guys performing well, and this lineup works vs LHP and RHP. I'd like to see Ortiz, but outperforming Urias is a big ask for a rookie in the midst of a pennant race. Right now Ortiz is a solution in need of a problem, and we don't have one. 

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He’s too valuable to our run in 2024. He will be here. I don’t think it’s valued enough that he SH. Adley too. It makes building the lineup that much easier, when you can start with them batting #2/#3 every game. It provides stability over 162. 

Me thinks your going to be disappointed 

[forphase1]

53 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Problem is Ortiz needs to beat out Urias, and Urias has been solid. Westburg 2B, Henderson SS, Urias 3B is a solid infield with all three guys performing well, and this lineup works vs LHP and RHP. I'd like to see Ortiz, but outperforming Urias is a big ask for a rookie in the midst of a pennant race. Right now Ortiz is a solution in need of a problem, and we don't have one. 

If they will utilize Urias in this fashion, and keep Frazier and Mateo on the bench, then that would certainly help.  I don't expect them to do so though, especially as to Frazier.  That said Urias isn't exactly setting the world on fire this year, with a .724 OPS.  That's not bad, certainly, as right now the league average is .730 OPS, so he's been slightly worse than average.  Could Ortiz match or exceed that?  Who knows?  He hasn't shown it yet, but the SSS is so small as to not really be relevant.  

That said, we DO have a problem if we keep seeing Frazier getting starts, which we saw in 4 of our last 6 games.  Frazier has 23 at bats already in July.  So sure, if the choice is Ortiz versus Urias, that's not so clear.  But if it's Ortiz versus Frazier, I think that's much more in Ortiz favor.  Sure, I know Ortiz doesn't play 2nd, but put him at SS, Henderson at 3rd and Westburg at 2nd, with Urias being the backup for all of them when rests are needed.  And keep Frazier on the bench, right next to Mateo.    

[Baltimorecuse]

Unless Ortiz can pitch, I don't think he'd make a damn bit of difference to this team.  

[geschinger]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Problem is Ortiz needs to beat out Urias, and Urias has been solid. Westburg 2B, Henderson SS, Urias 3B is a solid infield with all three guys performing well, and this lineup works vs LHP and RHP. I'd like to see Ortiz, but outperforming Urias is a big ask for a rookie in the midst of a pennant race. Right now Ortiz is a solution in need of a problem, and we don't have one. 

He's been serviceable and that is what I mean about the W-L record.  I think that makes it more likely that Urias keeps getting ABs that could otherwise go to Ortiz.  Westburg has done better at the MLB level in his 40ABs over 2 weeks than Ortiz has in his 33 ABs spread over 3 months.  Does that really tell us anything that JW is part of solid IF and Ortiz wouldn't be? 

I'm not saying Ortiz should replace JW just that I don't think the evidence is there that points to JW being better for the Orioles this year or long-term than Ortiz would be and the team would be better served getting them both everyday ABs to see who is better for the org going forward once Holiday is in the mix. 

Urias has been serviceable but unless the thought process is GH is so awful defensively at 3rd that they need to limit his time there then, GH at third, JO at SS, and JW at 2nd would IMO be the most productive lineup.  I think JO exceeds the ~.720 OPS that Urias gives the team if given regular playing time. 

[Sanity Check]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Actually, I think Holliday is the O’s SS in September. Why not?  He’s gotta tare up Bowie though. I think he’s on up on September 1. He’s a special player. 

This offseason we trade Mateo and Urias for the best deals we can get. They’re valuable players now on a contender, and what we would get in a trade, isn’t worth what they provided to a pennant chase. Mountcastle gets non tendered this offseason. 

So OD 2024…

3B - Gunnar

SS - Holliday

2B - Westburg

Util - Ortiz(Late game sub, plays Vs LHP, general rotation system)

Kjerstad/Mayo - We see them in Mid June after we earn an extra year of service time. 

Santander/Hays/Mullins/O’Hearn - All out with us at least until ASB 2024. Santander SH is just far too valuable to deal this offseason.

This is just how I see things shaking out. We all can still buy Joey Ortiz jerseys. He’ll be here. 

There is no way Holiday is on the 40-man roster and on the major league team in September AND we somehow still have Mateo and Urias around to trade in the offseason.  There's not enough room on the roster for that to happen.

I agree that he could be a special talent, but Elias and the O's have a process....Jackson Holiday will need to perform well at the AAA level before being called up.

[Aristotelian]

19 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

If they will utilize Urias in this fashion, and keep Frazier and Mateo on the bench, then that would certainly help.  I don't expect them to do so though, especially as to Frazier.  That said Urias isn't exactly setting the world on fire this year, with a .724 OPS.  That's not bad, certainly, as right now the league average is .730 OPS, so he's been slightly worse than average.  Could Ortiz match or exceed that?  Who knows?  He hasn't shown it yet, but the SSS is so small as to not really be relevant.  

That said, we DO have a problem if we keep seeing Frazier getting starts, which we saw in 4 of our last 6 games.  Frazier has 23 at bats already in July.  So sure, if the choice is Ortiz versus Urias, that's not so clear.  But if it's Ortiz versus Frazier, I think that's much more in Ortiz favor.  Sure, I know Ortiz doesn't play 2nd, but put him at SS, Henderson at 3rd and Westburg at 2nd, with Urias being the backup for all of them when rests are needed.  And keep Frazier on the bench, right next to Mateo.    

Frazier started one of those games in LF, and another when Westburg was on the bench. It also appeared he got a little uptick in the Yankees series due to his success in Yankee stadium. Just looking at the MIN series, Urias started all three at 3B, Frazier played only one game (subbing for Westburg), and we swept a good team. I am sure Frazier will get some opportunities but I am expecting this to be the dominant lineup with Frazier shifting to more of a utility role. Maybe it is a small sample but it looks like the beginning of a trend to me.

[Sanity Check]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What are we going to get for Santander that is better than what our OD 2024 roster is looking like?  We're not.  

A quality starting rotation guy (at least a #3 or better) should be the goal here for any trade we do with Santander.  You can never have enough good pitchers, and injuries happen.  I'm okay with someone "lesser" than a Santander if we can bolster our starting pitching, because to be a contender, pitching is what put you over the top.  Just my opinion.

[Aristotelian]

11 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Urias has been serviceable but unless the thought process is GH is so awful defensively at 3rd that they need to limit his time there then, GH at third, JO at SS, and JW at 2nd would IMO be the most productive lineup.  I think JO exceeds the ~.720 OPS that Urias gives the team if given regular playing time. 

I'm inclined to agree but from a risk standpoint you have a known quantity with a high floor in Urias, and these games matter. .724 isn't amazing, but he puts up good AB's, he's consistent, and it adds up to a 2 WAR pace, which is really good. I wouldn't be against bringing Ortiz back, but I can see why they don't. If you think these guys are roughly equal (even if Ortiz might be incrementally better), better to keep them where they are with Ortiz as backup than to DFA one and then risk Ortiz scuffling with no backup plan. 

Now, if Frazier is getting full time-ish AB's I agree that will be more upsetting, but it seems like his competition is more with Westburg and that decision has been made.

[geschinger]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I'm inclined to agree but from a risk standpoint you have a known quantity with a high floor in Urias, and these games matter. .724 isn't amazing, but he puts up good AB's, he's consistent, and it adds up to a 2 WAR pace, which is really good. I wouldn't be against bringing Ortiz back, but I can see why they don't. If you think these guys are roughly equal (even if Ortiz might be incrementally better), better to keep them where they are with Ortiz as backup than to DFA one and then risk Ortiz scuffling with no backup plan. 

Now, if Frazier is getting full time-ish AB's I agree that will be more upsetting, but it seems like his competition is more with Westburg and that decision has been made.

I can see why they won't as well for the same reasons.   I agree it's between JW and JO because the org is a bit risk-averse right now.  I'd rather play to win than play not to lose but the approach is totally understandable considering the circumstances.

I wonder though if it's a decision that has been made or if it's a hot hand.  I hope JW rakes and it doesn't come to it but if a couple of weeks from now JW is mired in a 2 for 20 slump and JO is raking in Norfolk, does JW receive the latitude he should get to work his way out of it?  I'm not so sure.

[Baltimorecuse]

I'd be astounded if they sat Urias for Ortiz.  

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I'd be astounded if they sat Urias for Ortiz.  

You would be astounded if they played a more talented overall player?