AL team to watch: White Sox

[Bemorewins]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wonder at the logic of this.  It’s not like the O’s have 3-4 great pitching prospects who are a year away so that they just need an upgrade for 2023 and no longer.  They’re going to have holes to fill this winter, including filling Gibson’s spot.  So I’d say it makes sense to look at some longer term solutions.  

AGREE WITH ALL OF THIS TOTALLY!!!

[Bemorewins]

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Agree it makes sense..but not sure I guy the Os bringing in pitching that costs a lot of prospects and a lot of money.

Now, is there a starter out there that has 3-4 years of service time left?  If so, that’s the guy to go get.

Alcantara

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

Alcantara

He’s not being dealt.

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Means plays a huge role in this. By the deadline we should know where he stands. 
 

My concern with Grayson all along is will he be available in October? 
 

There have been teams without elite starters who get by and win a World Series. A certain K rate for instance. If we remain healthy the looking for a number 5 type starter may not be a need. It’s more about finding someone who can legitimately help you win in October. One question you have to ask yourself is if I aquire this arm will they start Game 1/2 of a best of 3?  If not it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t look at them but it does change the equation. 

IMO we do not need a #3/game 3 starter when there is no one to start game #1. 

I don't see any realistic scenario where we win the AL pennant with the current starting staff, even if Means miraculously is the same guy immediately when he returns. Look at what the other teams have in the way of starting pitching. Even our bullpen won't be that much of an advantage because most teams that get that far have very good bullpens also.

You bring up a great point about Grayson. He will have to be managed all season in such a way that he is preserved to be available down the stretch. The way things stand now, our starting staff is already putting A TON of stress on out bullpen. Other than the Nats and Tigers week where our starters got the job done, our rotation has been pretty bad. If/when you have to skip Grayson's starts, it's going to be that much worse.

[DirtyBird]

17 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Are we even a good fit with the CWS?  Aren’t they locked into a bunch of position players?  They’re just always hurt. 

They probably don't have much interest in picking up Tim Anderson's option for next season, and their middle infield is pretty weak.

Their bullpen stinks

Would a deal w/ Westburg, DL Hall and Bradish be enough to get Cease?

Edited May 2, 2023 by DirtyBird

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not being dealt.

If he's not on the market, then we are going to have to find someone to anchor the top of our staff. 

With all of the prospects that we have, I'm sure somebody will be willing to make a deal.

[Es4M11]

Eduardo Rodriguez makes the most sense to me today. A likely rental, pitching for a new contract. A lefty with experience pitching in the AL East. He's pitching really well and would arguably be the Orioles best starter as of right now. Shouldn't cost a fortune and the Tigers would be a pretty good trade partner for the Orioles. For this season I could live with a playoff rotation of E.Rodriguez - G.Rodriguez - Means/Bradish.

At seasons end, E.Rodriguez opts out and the Orioles place the QO on him. Leaves the Orioles flexibility for a run at a front line starter in free agency (Nola, etc).

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

Eduardo Rodriguez makes the most sense to me today. A likely rental, pitching for a new contract. A lefty with experience pitching in the AL East. He's pitching really well and would arguably be the Orioles best starter as of right now. Shouldn't cost a fortune and the Tigers would be a pretty good trade partner for the Orioles. For this season I could live with a playoff rotation of E.Rodriguez - G.Rodriguez - Means/Bradish.

At seasons end, E.Rodriguez opts out and the Orioles place the QO on him. Leaves the Orioles flexibility for a run at a front line starter in free agency (Nola, etc).

It made sense to me, until the last line. What are the odds of our awful ownership ponying up the coin to sign a FA pitcher this offseason or any other? Didn't our owner bristle at the idea of giving Adley an extension FIVE YEARS FROM NOW?

IMO, the problem with hedging our bets and going the route of an Eduardo Rodriguez (pitcher who will be a FA in the offseason) is that we are going to be in the same boat next year. Plus we have to make some trades anyway because we have now and will definitely have an even bigger problem by season's end, a serious log jam of positional players.

Ortiz, Westburg, Coweser, Mayo cannot sit in AAA for the whole year. That would be wasting their value. And to me an even WORSE idea would be to platoon those guys. IMO platoons are for lesser talented player or for players with extreme splits, not for very talented minor leaguers who need to grow through getting Major League experience.

[sportsfan8703]

Even if we trade for EdRod and Giolito then we’re still outgunned in a playoff series, we’ve given away prospects, and we have nothing to show for them in 2024. We might be able to hang an ALDS winner banner. 
 

The right move is 2024+ for a SP. It’s not like we’re going to give a FA SP a big deal. 

[foxfield]

17 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

There is NO PLAYER in the sport of baseball that we could acquire in a trade that would cost us the farm. We have NINE top 100 prospects. And that does not include Gunnar. And even when Grayson graduates off the list soon, Basallo will shortly join and maybe Creed Willems by season's end.

Let's say we had to give up 4 of those top 9 or Gunnar or whoever not named Grayson and Adley. We would have FIVE left, which is more than EVERY OTHER org in baseball except for 2 (the Dodgers and Guardians).

I'm not sure where this idea is coming from that it is possible for us to mortgage our future; it's not really possible. Especially from ONE SINGULAR trade. This is what FIVE years of intentional loosing, good drafting (of the same thing - positional players), and very good development gets you. More minor league/young talent than everyone else.

But what is possible is for us not to win anything, but hoarding redundant positional prospects and not having the necessary pitching required to win in October.

What gives you confidence that we can win a World Series with Giolito as our number 1 starting going into every series in the AL (given who we would have to face)? There is nothing in his profile that says to me that he is that guy, other than ONE SINGLE dominant postseason start in his career.

If the Orioles are asked to give 4 of the top 9 prospects for a player I believe the Orioles pass.

The Orioles have a need for a TOR pitcher, that is obvious to all of us and everyone in the MLB.  They have a talented and deep positional roster and prospect pool.  But I think people here often overthink the  urgency of having to spend prospects.  This isn't money burning a hole in the Orioles pockets.  There are ways to manage this even if deals cannot be made.

I would prefer to not see the Orioles non-tender current players, but I'd rather non-tender players on the current roster than simply dump multiple players for a rental pitcher.

The Orioles do face a significant 40 man roster crunch but that issue is not the same as today's pitching issue and shouldn't be married to each other.

But the point stands, that the Orioles have entered a competitive window and their success inside that window, regardless of whether they extend stars, sign free agents or make trades...will be limited to their pitching success.  

Which does mean that Elias' biggest challenge is going to be how he can acquire a front line pitcher or two.  

I believe, given his stated desire to be good and competitive over a long period, that he is going to be more careful and more long term oriented than the typical fan who wants maximum success today.  

Either way, it's an exciting and nerve racking time to be an Oriole fan.

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Agree it makes sense, but not sure I guy the O's bringing in pitching that costs a lot of prospects and a lot of money. Now, is there a starter out there that has 3-4 years of service time left?  If so, that’s the guy to go get.

I have been bringing up ERod since last year for that reason. He makes $14M this year and then has 3/$49M remaining. He has an Opt out after this year he would likely exercise so he as a rental he shouldn't cost much. CoC and I couldn't figure out if he can be QO-ed again since he declined the BOS QO. If not, DET has little reason to hold on to him for the rest of the year. If they aren't going to get a pick would they say NO to Irvin and Norby??? It COULD be an opportunity to renegotiate his opt out and add a few option years at basically the cost of Frazier and Gibson. You have you stable inning eater for multiple years (assuming you can extend him) to go with GRod, Bradish, Means, Wells, Kremer, Povitch, Johnson. That should cover the Adley years

Edited May 2, 2023 by AnythingO's
typo

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, foxfield said:

If the Orioles are asked to give 4 of the top 9 prospects for a player I believe the Orioles pass.

The Orioles have a need for a TOR pitcher, that is obvious to all of us and everyone in the MLB.  They have a talented and deep positional roster and prospect pool.  But I think people here often overthink the  urgency of having to spend prospects.  This isn't money burning a hole in the Orioles pockets.  There are ways to manage this even if deals cannot be made.

I would prefer to not see the Orioles non-tender current players, but I'd rather non-tender players on the current roster than simply dump multiple players for a rental pitcher.

The Orioles do face a significant 40 man roster crunch but that issue is not the same as today's pitching issue and shouldn't be married to each other.

But the point stands, that the Orioles have entered a competitive window and their success inside that window, regardless of whether they extend stars, sign free agents or make trades...will be limited to their pitching success.  

Which does mean that Elias' biggest challenge is going to be how he can acquire a front line pitcher or two.  

I believe, given his stated desire to be good and competitive over a long period, that he is going to be more careful and more long term oriented than the typical fan who wants maximum success today.  

Either way, it's an exciting and nerve racking time to be an Oriole fan.

Let’s take GRod out of the prospect rankings.

Holliday is off the table.

So, that leaves you with some kind of combo to Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Basallo, Povich and Hall.  Whatever order you want them in…that’s roughly going to be the rest of the top 10.

That is likely what you are looking at. Would the Os trade 3-4 of those guys for the right starter?  Yea I think so.

Now, the other thing we have to remember is that the Os system is so deep that guys in the 11-15 range could easily be in play too. 
 

The Os absolutely have to thin out some of this depth because it’s going to become a roster issue soon enough. Plus, not all of these guys are going to develop or stay healthy, so you don’t want to see them lose value either.

[sportsfan8703]

The team is 19-9. Best farm system. 8-9 top 100 prospects. One of the youngest teams in baseball. 
 

That’s lift off time. Time to start thinking about your playoff rotation for this year and the future. 

[Es4M11]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s take GRod out of the prospect rankings.

Holliday is off the table.

So, that leaves you with some kind of combo to Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Basallo, Povich and Hall.  Whatever order you want them in…that’s roughly going to be the rest of the top 10.

That is likely what you are looking at. Would the Os trade 3-4 of those guys for the right starter?  Yea I think so.

Now, the other thing we have to remember is that the Os system is so deep that guys in the 11-15 range could easily be in play too. 
 

The Os absolutely have to thin out some of this depth because it’s going to become a roster issue soon enough. Plus, not all of these guys are going to develop or stay healthy, so you don’t want to see them lose value either.

I think if the O's go big and get a guy like Cease that should eliminate most of the log jam as we would likely be sending out several prospects. If Elias chooses to buy a cheaper rental instead, then I could also see the potential for a follow-up prospect for prospect trade i.e. Westburg or Norby for a couple promising guys in A-ball somewhere.

[DirtyBird]

 

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So, that leaves you with some kind of combo to Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Basallo, Povich and Hall.  Whatever order you want them in…that’s roughly going to be the rest of the top 10.

That is likely what you are looking at. Would the Os trade 3-4 of those guys for the right starter?  Yea I think so.

There are very very few guys worth 3-4 of those, especially if you are including Cowser, Kjersted or Povich in the deal.