A Realistic Pitching Ace And What It Will Take to Acquire Him

[AnythingO's]

12 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

If anyone is wonder what it would cost to get a pitcher of such a caliber, it might be good to look at what got a catcher of such high caliber. Look at what the Braves gave up in the off-season to trade for Sean Murphy...

The Braves gave up their starting Catcher, a depth catcher, a MLB pitcher, and 3 of the better pitching prospects to upgrade their Catcher position. What they got in return was the reigning American League Gold Glove winner at the Catcher position. This should be a good barometer of what it might take to trade for a player of Ace caliber.

OR a player of Adley's stature as there is little hope JA will open his checkbook for a 25 year old catcher after watching Wieters, at least in my mind. ME will use Adley to stuff the pipeline in a few years.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

OK, I'll bite. I have been on the ERod bandwagon since the offseason. Why? I look for idiosyncrasies, and with his opt out, his troubles last summer, and 3/$49M remaining I expect him to opt out. That means he is a short term rental which DET has little leverage over therefore cheaper to acquire. The oddity with him is he declined the QO from Boston and I am not sure of the rules allowing or preventing a second QO. That's an unknown. Then usually the team has 5 days after the WS to place the QO but the player can have a different timeline in their contract. I think ARod had a 10-day window back in the day. As well negotiated as ERod's contract is, it wouldn't surprise me if he did something like that to reduce DET's options if he didn't opt within 5 days. Another unknown. Then there is his Oriole lineage and I was pissed when he was traded. But DET isn't failing, except against the East. They are 2-14 against the East but they are 15-18 overall, in 3rd place. They don't play the East again until 3 w/ TOR just before the ASB and then 13 in Aug-Sept. They won't decide to fish or cut bait until July but we still need to answer the QO questions before making any offer. Too much time, too many variables.

Another choice is Trever Rogers in MIA just coming off the 15-day IL with forearm tightness but he says no pain. He is 25, lefty, 6'-5" drafted in 2017 out of HS, They are short SPs right now without him and are starting a 33 year old as SP5. They have guys hurt and prospects coming but nothing ready now. They are in the hunt now with PHI and NYM, can they hang there? Are they tired of waiting for him to become say Wheeler? Too much time, wait and see. Pablo was the guy this offseason.

Interesting two guys. I can definitely join you in having keen interest in Rodriguez! Especially with how he has pitched this season.

I think I'm going to put the trade discussions/speculations to bed for a while personally, as several posters have reminded the deadline is a long way away.

[emmett16]

Has an Orioles starter given up 7 runs in a start this season? 

[Just Regular]

Dombrowski's Stars and Scrubs '22 Phillies provide an example what it looks like if a Bat-first team has a good month in the tournament.     Here's a look how their SP3 factored into October 2022.

Batters Faced by PHI SP, all Nola-Wheeler unless otherwise noted:

WCS Oct 7/8: 22, 25

NLDS Oct 11/12/14/15: Ranger Suarez for 17, 24, 26, Noah Syndergaard for 10

NLCS Oct 18/19/21/22/23: 23, 21, Ranger Suarez for 20, Bailey Falter for 6, 22

WS Oct 28/29 and Nov 1/2/3/5: 20, 24, Ranger Suarez for 19, 20, Noah Syndergaard for 11, 20

The SP3 needed to go twice through the order October 11, October 21 and November 1.    It is Zach Eflin and Yennier Cano's world; Kyle Gibson worked about 1 inning throughout the run.

None of Grayson, Bradish, Means or a future Oriole to be named later are Wheeler or Nola yet, but if we fail to make the tournament and/or get bounced in two days, I don't believe length pitching will be the sole culprit.

Down 0-1 in a WCS, Wells, Cano and Bautista should pitch like 6 of the first 7 innings even if Lucas Giolito is on the roster.

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Just Regular

[Bemorewins]

On 5/7/2023 at 9:01 PM, AnythingO's said:

OR a player of Adley's stature as there is little hope JA will open his checkbook for a 25 year old catcher after watching Wieters, at least in my mind. ME will use Adley to stuff the pipeline in a few years.

What does Wieters have to do with Adley other than they play the same position? 

Wieters gave you little to no value with the bat. Adley is the best hitter on the team and one of the best in the sport. He can provide value without playing catcher.

As far as the awful Angelos “opening up his check book” let’s get real! He wouldn’t do that for Ken Griffey Jr in his prime. The man is terrible and cheap. Let’s not make excuses for his horribleness.

[sportsfan8703]

This thread makes my brain hurt. This is FB level or MASN comments section level. 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Has an Orioles starter given up 7 runs in a start this season? 

Yes, Bradish on April 25.

By the way, here’s a really handy resource if you want to track how our starters have done day by day: https://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/StartingInfo.py?StartDate=03%2F30%2F2023&EndDate=05%2F08%2F2023&GameType=all&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=2

[Ohfan67]

The probability that Elias is going to trade top prospects for a front-line starting pitcher during this season is between slim and none IMO. He's been incredibly conservative with them and I don't think he's going to dramatically break his plan/alter his style based on where the O's are in the standings near the trade deadline. I think a trade for a pitcher will happen during this season, but it will be a relatively ho hum move. An offseason trade for a significant pitcher is more likely IMO. 

[AnythingO's]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

What does Wieters have to do with Adley other than they play the same position? Wieters gave you little to no value with the bat. Adley is the best hitter on the team and one of the best in the sport. He can provide value without playing catcher.

As far as the awful Angelos “opening up his check book” let’s get real! He wouldn’t do that for Ken Griffey Jr in his prime. The man is terrible and cheap. Let’s not make excuses for his horribleness.

As for Adley-Wieters, hyped catchers, Wieters bat was supposed to be elite. Not worth discussing cause I expect him to be traded before FA. Do not ever, under any circumstances, accuse me of making excuses for John Angelos, I distain that man with a passion.

[Bemorewins]

35 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

As for Adley-Wieters, hyped catchers, Wieters bat was supposed to be elite. Not worth discussing cause I expect him to be traded before FA. Do not ever, under any circumstances, accuse me of making excuses for John Angelos, I distain that man with a passion.

I hear you say that you disdain John Angelos and that's cool. But the highlighted text, I'm not sure what to do with that? That seems like a strong tone for a message board... I'm going to assume the best intention and keep it moving.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

The probability that Elias is going to trade top prospects for a front-line starting pitcher during this season is between slim and none IMO. He's been incredibly conservative with them and I don't think he's going to dramatically break his plan/alter his style based on where the O's are in the standings near the trade deadline. I think a trade for a pitcher will happen during this season, but it will be a relatively ho hum move. An offseason trade for a significant pitcher is more likely IMO. 

What difference does it make if you trade pull the trigger on a trade at the deadline or in the offseason? It the costs going to be dramatically different?

Also, I agree with your point that he has been very conservative up until this point, but if he is always going to move slow, he may find himself missing out. There just aren't that many ELITE pitchers getting moved by bad teams in the climate of today's game with the added WildCard and with many of the worst teams incorporating the strategy of tanking.

Look at the rosters of most of the teams at the bottom the standings who we would typically classify as sellers. Most of them don't even have players that I would be interested in. The Tigers and White Sox and that's about it. The other ones don't even have many good players on their roster. Elias will have to ask himself, is that going to change in the offseason?

[AnythingO's]

59 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I hear you say that you disdain John Angelos and that's cool. But the highlighted text, I'm not sure what to do with that? That seems like a strong tone for a message board... I'm going to assume the best intention and keep it moving.

I was reacting to:" The man is terrible and cheap. Let’s not make excuses for his horribleness." I'd never do that.

If I misinterpreted your meaning, please accept my apology.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I was reacting to:" The man is terrible and cheap. Let’s not make excuses for his horribleness." I'd never do that.

If I misinterpreted your meaning, please accept my apology.

No problem.

[Ohfan67]

36 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

What difference does it make if you trade pull the trigger on a trade at the deadline or in the offseason? It the costs going to be dramatically different?

Also, I agree with your point that he has been very conservative up until this point, but if he is always going to move slow, he may find himself missing out. There just aren't that many ELITE pitchers getting moved by bad teams in the climate of today's game with the added WildCard and with many of the worst teams incorporating the strategy of tanking.

Look at the rosters of most of the teams at the bottom the standings who we would typically classify as sellers. Most of them don't even have players that I would be interested in. The Tigers and White Sox and that's about it. The other ones don't even have many good players on their roster. Elias will have to ask himself, is that going to change in the offseason?

I’m not advocating for this approach, I just think that’s what Elias will do. I think Elias will continue to use this season to evaluate current prospects and MLB roster players. I think he’s likely to try to move players like Santander and will get appropriate level talent. Again, I’m not advocating this strategy, it’s just what I think he’s likely to do. I can’t see Elias trading away top prospects until he’s had a chance to see what they can do at the MLB level. 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I’m not advocating for this approach, I just think that’s what Elias will do. I think Elias will continue to use this season to evaluate current prospects and MLB roster players. I think he’s likely to try to move players like Santander and will get appropriate level talent. Again, I’m not advocating this strategy, it’s just what I think he’s likely to do. I can’t see Elias trading away top prospects until he’s had a chance to see what they can do at the MLB level. 

That is the most conservative way to go about it and if he is as conservative as some say, this is probably most likely.

However, taking this approach comes with the risk of lost value if that prospect fails because not only do you see what you have but so do the other teams. The smarter GM would be able to evaluate what he has before the guys get here and then trade the ones that you determine that don't "have it" while their value is still sky high in the Minor Leagues.

I also hate the idea of trading Santander in season as it will be basically waving another white flag to the team like he did last year. At some point you actually have to value winning and giving the guys experience of trying to win at the highest level.

Lastly, he should not need to "see what he has" from a pitching perspective. That is quite clear. No one outside of Grayson even has top of the rotation potential. It's a gaping whole in the org that will need to be filled somehow.