Buyer beware- rentals

[doccat]

Not a fan of rentals.  Too much damage to the long term health of the team.  This article does a nice job revisiting the Eduardo Rodriguez for Andrew Miller deal-

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2020/2/20/21143947/eduardo-rodriguez-andrew-miller-red-sox-orioles-trade-retrospective

[RZNJ]

I prefer the rental.  You can get hosed on the non-rental as well.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, doccat said:

Not a fan of rentals.  Too much damage to the long term health of the team.  This article does a nice job revisiting the Eduardo Rodriguez for Andrew Miller deal-

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2020/2/20/21143947/eduardo-rodriguez-andrew-miller-red-sox-orioles-trade-retrospective

So what's the argument?

That the 2018 Orioles could have traded him?  What he did in 2019 is irrelevant, he wouldn't have been on the team.

Having Rodriguez wouldn't have stopped 2018 from happening.  Best case scenario him on the 2016 squad gets them home field for the WC game.

 

[Aristotelian]

Eduardo has had a solid career 16 WAR career but Miller did his job and pitched some big innings for us during our deepest run in recent memory. At least with a rental you are minimizing the risk by trading non-core prospects. I would say the risk of an overpay is even higher for controlled players as the price goes up. If you are worried about overpay risk, rental is probably the best you can do unless you just refuse to participate in the trade market.

[Sports Guy]

Rentals are great. It depends on who you get and what you trade and that’s the case with any trade.

[Fiver6565]

I’ve never understood the viewpoint that the Miller trade wasn’t a success. He was a vital cog to a team that made the ALCS for the first time since 1997. The fact that they didn’t win that series doesn’t suddenly mean it was a bad trade. 

[maybenxtyr]

1 minute ago, Fiver6565 said:

I’ve never understood the viewpoint that the Miller trade wasn’t a success. He was a vital cog to a team that made the ALCS for the first time since 1997. The fact that they didn’t win that series doesn’t suddenly mean it was a bad trade. 

Exactly! People point to that trade and losing in the ALCS all of the time, but it doesn't begin to tell the story of what actually happened that year. Not having Manny, Wieters and Davis probably had a little something to do with losing.

[vab]

You can't have your cake and eat it too. They needed immediate help and Rodriguez was the price. They paid the price, took the shot and it didn't work out. That's the way it goes. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, vab said:

You can't have your cake and eat it too. They needed immediate help and Rodriguez was the price. They paid the price, took the shot and it didn't work out. That's the way it goes. 

And it is far from a certain thing that Eduardo would have done as well under the Orioles pitching development system.

[deward]

Yeah, no problems with the Miller trade at all. He was an excellent pitcher, having an excellent season, who filled a need on a team with realistic World Series aspirations. EdRod was somewhere in the middle of the preseason top 100 prospects lists, depending on which one you looked at (36 on FG, 68 on MLB). Miller was in demand, and the O's frankly didn't have much else to offer. That was a team that deserved to go for it, Duq was perfectly justified in rolling the dice on that trade. And Miller was brilliant for them. If that team had been able to close the deal, no one would have any regrets over that trade. 

[btdart20]

47 minutes ago, doccat said:

Not a fan of rentals.  Too much damage to the long term health of the team.  This article does a nice job revisiting the Eduardo Rodriguez for Andrew Miller deal-

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2020/2/20/21143947/eduardo-rodriguez-andrew-miller-red-sox-orioles-trade-retrospective

I don't understand the main idea of why rentals are a bad investment.  

Is the case against rentals that they don't make a WS championship 100%?  That's typically the argument against rentals "after the fact".  If we would have won the WS (like other clubs have done after getting trade deadline rentals) then the Miller/Rodriguez deal wouldn't loom as large in the rearview. 

Or that teams can give up too much in a rental trade vs. a more controllable trade?  Other teams are looking for value too.  This is the 'bidding war' concerns that humans have.  But that's why we have a SigBot!  He just crunches numbers without the emotions!

Or that RP rentals have larger variations of outcomes than other types of rentals?  Maybe, but that's not the case being made in the article since it's anecdotally focused on the Miller/Rodriguez trade.

[TommyPickles]

As an O's fan who was born in 1990, I don't see 2014 or the Andrew Miller trade as a failure. 

2014 was, by far, the most thrilling and successful season of my life. (I was going to games in 96-97, but I was a little kid. I hardly remember that). I was there for the Delmon Young double game. Best game of my life. I watched Miller excel for us down the stretch (23 games, 1.35 ERA) and help us win the division. I got to see him absolutely dominate in the postseason (7 games, 0.00 ERA). 

At the time, it felt like the O's would be going deep into the playoffs for years to come, but that didn't happen. 2014 turned out to be the peak of the BUCKle Up Birds. 

I'm not mad they decided to shoot their shot. 2014 was big for the fans and for the city.

Also, hindsight is 20-20. EdRod was one of our Top 10 prospects in 2014, but so were guys like Mike Wright, Henry Urrutia, Tim Berry, and Micheal Olman. 

 

I wouldn't be mad if the O's decide to be aggressive and pursue a rental this year. Our future looks bright, but it also looks bright for a lot of other organizations. Teams like the Yankees, Rays, and Astros are all faltering right now, in various ways. With the best record in the AL, this could wind up being one of our best shots. Why not?

(Obviously disclaimer, I don't mean trade any of the really untouchable prospects)

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by TommyPickles

[Billy F-Face3]

I generally sympathize with the point of this thread, but sometimes rentals work out and resign. What the Orioles need is a David Cone type of trade at the deadline to set a Dynasty into motion.

[interloper]

Do people really see that Miller trade as a bad trade? Miller was exactly what we needed and he pitched exactly as advertised. I have no regrets. 

[Number5]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Do people really see that Miller trade as a bad trade? Miller was exactly what we needed and he pitched exactly as advertised. I have no regrets. 

Yes - and the trade also prevented our eventual ALDS opponent, Detroit, from getting him.  A double whammy for us against them in that series.