Guardians Series

[Just Regular]

Will we see Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde?     Their last 2 series they swept the contending Rangers, followed by getting rolled by the 100-loss Royals.     Terry Francona has somewhat announced these couple weeks are his swan song.

Roster Resource has them with 4 SP and 10 RP today pending Bieber's reactivation tomorrow, so it might be we see a bullpen game tonight.

AL Rank in k-bb among all SP 80 ip minimum (no Active Roster filter given Bieber's unqualified status there - its a group of 78 pitchers today).

(35) Grayson v. (n/a) Bullpen?

(51) Kremer v. (57) Bieber

(n/a) Means v. (77) Quantrill   

(58) Gibson v. (56) Williams

Except Grayson, all these guys Bottom Half if not near the bottom, so some opportunities for Bats this series.     The top of Cleveland's lineup is generally running good.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Just Regular

[Moose Milligan]

I feel that Cleveland hasn't been a good matchup for us over the past few years.  This series makes me a bit nervous.  I don't want to settle for a split.

[dystopia]

26 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I feel that Cleveland hasn't been a good matchup for us over the past few years.  This series makes me a bit nervous.  I don't want to settle for a split.

4 game series have a high probability of ending up as a split. We shouldn’t be too disappointed with one especially since it’s on the road. (We’ve played good on the road but still)

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, dystopia said:

4 game series have a high probability of ending up as a split. We shouldn’t be too disappointed with one especially since it’s on the road. (We’ve played good on the road but still)

They do have a high probability of ending up as a split.  And I'm okay with a split as long as we come out of the series at least two games up on Tampa (where we are now) and headed into the final week.

[Frobby]

If that’s the way Cleveland is going to play it, I’m hoping for revenge for this bullpen game.

We smashed both Bieber (4 IP, 7 ER) and Quantrill (4.1 IP, 8 ER) when we saw them in May, but we lost the Bieber game because our “bullpen game” allowed 12 runs to Cleveland.  Gibson had a decent game (5.2 IP, 3 ER) and got the win against Quantrill.  Rodriguez, Means and Kremer haven’t faced Cleveland this year.  Kremer has faced them twice in previous years and hasn’t fared well, allowing 6 ER in 9.2 IP.  Means has allowed 5 ER in 10.2 IP, back in 2019 and 2021.  Guardians rookie Gavin Williams was called up in June and has never faced the O’s.  He was BA’s no. 20 prospect entering the year and has not disappointed, posting a 3.29 ERA in 82 innings over 16 starts.   Bieber (3.77 ERA) will be making his first start since July 9.   Quantrill (5.26 ERA) also missed most of July and all of August, but has pitched very well in September (1.90 ERA in 23.2 IP over 4 starts).  

Cleveland has a middling bullpen, with a 3.77 ERA (7th in the AL) and a 59% save rate.  The Orioles are a bit better, 3.60 (3rd) and 61% (8th).   Our bullpen is taxed, but it looks like Cleveland’s will be taxed too if they stick to the “bullpen game” plan.

Offensively, the Orioles are a full run/game better than the Guardians, at 5.11 (4th) vs. 4.09 (12th).  In OPS+, the O’s are at 108 (4th), the G’s at 94 (10th).  Famously, Cleveland is great at making contact, striking out only 7.05 times a game, fewest in the league.  But they also have very little HR power, dead last at 0.76 HR/game.  The O’s hit 1.18 homers/game (8th) while striking out 8.41 times a game (4th best).   

Overall, Cleveland is not a team to be taken lightly.  They took 2 out of 3 against us in May and scored 22 runs in that series (5, 5 and 12).  We need to pitch better this time around.   
 

 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

They do have a high probability of ending up as a split.  And I'm okay with a split as long as we come out of the series at least two games up on Tampa (where we are now) and headed into the final week.

The O's are pretty much in a position to just run out the clock. 

[Mooreisbetter27]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

The O's are pretty much in a position to just run out the clock. 

Yep.  19 games left between both us and the Rays and we only need 7 of them to go our way.  I like our chances.  

[SilentJames]

Cleveland always seems to give the Orioels headaches - no matter how good or bad they are. 

Ill take a split, if we win this series it would just be super. 

[Aristotelian]

Main thing I am looking for is a decent outing by Means. That would be huge. 

2.5 up plus the tiebreaker over Tampa, we can afford to lose a game or two. Blue Jays will have every incentive to take games from the Rays this weekend so I don't think they are sweeping their next four. I'd be thrilled with 3-1, happy with 2-2. Of course losing the series will be disappointing and getting swept would be panic-inducing.

[Frobby]

Even though Tampa has a tougher schedule and is down by 2.5 plus the tiebreaker, I don’t want to rely on the likelihood of them losing some games.  I’d really like to come out of Cleveland with 3 out of 4.   And it won’t be that easy.  

[spleen1015]

Anything less than 2-2 would be disappointing but if they come out of the weekend still up 2.5 games, it doesn't really matter.

Just win today, baby!

[SteveA]

54 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Yep.  19 games left between both us and the Rays and we only need 7 of them to go our way.  I like our chances.  

And all 10 of ours are against teams with losing records, and 8 of Tampa's 9 are against teams with winning records fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot.

[dtk9119]

With the taxed bullpen and our struggles vs CLE in recent years, I'd be thrilled w a split.

My prediction to finish:

@ CLE 2-2 split

vs WSH 2-0 sweep

vs BOS 2-2 split (probably playing out the string)

6-4 finish.

For TB..

vs LAA 1 win

vs TOR 2-1 win

@ BOS 1-1 split

@ TOR 1-2 loss

5-4 finish

That would have us clinching the East around next Thu vs BOS.

[SteveA]

We can mathematically eliminate the Guardians by winning tonight.

Twins don't play.   Their magic # is 1.   They need both Cleveland and Detroit to lose tonight to clinch on their off day, otherwise they'll have to do it on their own this weekend.

[Malike]

23 minutes ago, SteveA said:

We can mathematically eliminate the Guardians by winning tonight.

Twins don't play.   Their magic # is 1.   They need both Cleveland and Detroit to lose tonight to clinch on their off day, otherwise they'll have to do it on their own this weekend.

According to MLB.com Cleveland has already been eliminated from the WC round. Boston's elimination number is 1, and they aren't a winning team. I don't think I'd say they are fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot. Toronto clearly is. Pretty sure they aren't winning the division (Cleveland), the division number is 1 with MIN playing LAA tomorrow.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Malike