Looper a Brewer, one year deal with option

[Sports Guy]

You seem to be pretty optimistic about Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman. Seem's just as likely that none of them will be brought up this year. Whats the rush?

Has nothing to do with rushing them. If they are ready to be here, then they should be.

And I didn't mean all of them...I was just listing guys that should and could have a chance by then and clearly all of those guys could have that chance...All will be at advanced levels, 2 of them high profile college pitchers that are very close as it is and others with a lot of experience...I would say Tillman is the longest shot just because of his age but still, we should have multiple guys ready by then.

[Sports Guy]

That may be your plan but I highly doubt it's part of AM's plan, We might see Patton, or Bergeson or maybe Hernandez, If any of the big three are up at all,

it won't be until Sept. IMO.

Having some of the young guys ready by the second half of the season is obviously part of the plan.

He is already dropping Patton's name and saying he could surprise...You better believe that positive health reports, the acquisition of Hill and Pauley lead him to not panic about adding a guy like Looper.

[Elon Os Fan]

I agree with SG. Give that rotation spot to guys out of options:

Guts

Uehara

Penn

Pauley

Hill

Now thats a nice rotation

[fansince71]

Has nothing to do with rushing them. If they are ready to be here, then they should be.

And I didn't mean all of them...I was just listing guys that should and could have a chance by then and clearly all of those guys could have that chance...All will be at advanced levels, 2 of them high profile college pitchers that are very close as it is and others with a lot of experience...I would say Tillman is the longest shot just because of his age but still, we should have multiple guys ready by then.

Well i hope your right, but our track record and flat out terrible luck with Pitching prospects can hardly be ignored. If just one of the big three makes it up this year i would be giddy.

[Skipper32]

Here is whats left..per MLBTR.

Kris Benson (33)

Paul Byrd (38) - Type B, offered arb

Tom Glavine (43)

Livan Hernandez (34)

Orlando Hernandez (43)

Chuck James (27)

Jon Lieber (39)

Rodrigo Lopez (33)

Pedro Martinez (37)

Mark Mulder (31)

Sidney Ponson (32)

Kenny Rogers (44)

Curt Schilling (42)

Ben Sheets (30) - Type A, offered arb

Kip Wells (32)

Why not give him an invite to ST, just to see if he has any gas left in the tank?

[RShack]

The big issue is Looper will give you a solid 6-7 innings every start. We currently have no one to do that except Guthrie. The bullpen will be beat up once again.

I fully agree about the goodness of adding a guy who will go 6 or 7.

What I don't understand is why you think Looper would have been a guy who would do that.

[Nemyar]

Trachsel time?

[Frobby]

I am a lot less worried about burning out the pen because of the amount of long men we have out there.

A guy like Hendrickson should be able to easily handle 100 innings out of the pen.

We will also, at some point, have Albers out there..Perhaps Penn out there..Pauley, Hennessey, etc...

So yes, if the BP gets overworked and tired, it will likely be because DT is using it poorly.

BTW, if Hill bounces back, then he gives us the innings Looper would have.

First, let me say that I agree with the general idea of this post, though my emphasis would be a little different. I do think that we can construct a bullpen that is designed to withstand a fair number of short starts by having several guys who can go 2+ innings if necessary. That softens the blow of not signing another starter who should average around 6 innings per start. However, it does not eliminate the danger that we see a repeat of last year when the bullpen essentially collapsed under the strain of overuse; it merely lessens that danger.

Second, I want to make clear that not signing an innings eater doesn't make the offseason a failure, and we shouldn't make more of this than it is. 80% of Hangouters (including me) said if we did nothing further this winter, MacPhail would deserve a B or better. Even bigbird said C+ to B-. So while I wouldn't call the failure to sign an innings eater a minor quibble, it doesn't rise to the level of a make-or-break move, either.

You are correct that if things break the right way, we'll be happy we didn't sign Looper. If Uehara translates well to the big leagues, if Hill returns to form, if two guys out of Penn, Pauley, Hennessey, Liz et al. step up or if a couple of the younger prospects are absolutely demanding (throught their performance) to be in the rotation by August, we could be glad Looper (or another innings eater) wasn't signed. But there are a ton of "ifs" in there, and I think the odds are against enough of those scenarios falling into place to eliminate the need for an innings eater. I'd rather have had the problem of needing to find a team to send Looper to (if things worked out well with our prospects) than have the problem of wondering who on this staff is going to give me more than 5 IP per start. If we shouldn't make too big a deal over the failure to sign an innings eater, we shouldn't say that signing one to a reasonable two-year deal would have been "horrible" either.

I do feel the need to say that the statement "a guy like Hendrickson should be able to easily handle 100 innings out of the pen" defies reality. Last year there were 141 pitchers in MLB who threw 100 innings, none of whom had fewer than 9 starts. There were only 9 pure relievers who threw 80+ IP last year, none of whom cracked 90 IP. Only two of those averaged more than 1.3 IP/appearance. So if the bullpen does struggle from overuse, as many of us fear, please don't give me this "it's because Trembley is mishandling the bullpen" stuff. Nobody uses relievers the way that Goose Gossage and Mike Marshall were used, and if Trembley doesn't either, don't pin it on the manager. (We can argue some other time about whether the current pattern of usage for relievers throughout MLB is logical.)

[wildcard]

I would have gone 2/10. If everything broke right he could have been a reliever in 2010. But it looks unlikely that everything would breaks right.

Not getting Looper probably means that the O's carry 13 pitchers.

Guts

Uehara is a question. He has a lot of adjustments to make. Its like Jamie Moyer trying to learn the league. I would expect no more then 120-150 IP.

Hill may be ok until his back catches up to him.

Penn has no durability. He is a reliever if he makes the team.

Pauley probably shows enough to make the rotation. But it is a learning year.

Hennessey chances just improved.

Baez chances just improved.

Liz was not ready last year. Was not ready in winter ball. Probably needs to start at AAA.

Patton probably needs to be in the minors for a while.

Albers will really to tested as he puts stress on the shoulder. To think he can put up a lot of innings is probably more a wish then reality.

Hendrickson- this improves this chances to make the rotation which is a bad thing. The word fodder comes to mind. Trachsel part II.

Tillman, DHernandez, Bergesen, or Berken maybe in the 2nd half but they probably get shut down in Sept. So you might see one or two of them for a month.

Arrieta and Matusz - not this year. Too early to know about next year.

Waters, Bass, and Simon's chances just improved.

This looks a lot like the SS situation last years. There is really not enough major league quality to do the job. So the O's try this, and try that. A lot of movement. But 4 open slots are a lot to fill.

A continuation of a 5.30 team ERA looks very possible.

[Mt. Holly]

What is the current status of Yadel Marti? Has he signed yet? If he is still out there, he could fit the low-risk, high-reward profile. I know very little about him. Does he need time in the minors or is he ready for the Show?

[McLovin]

You seem to be pretty optimistic about Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman. Seem's just as likely that none of them will be brought up this year. Whats the rush?

I agree, that's being too optimistic. Andy himself said on the radio last week that he is against rushing guys, and cited Cabrera as an example of why not to do it.

Berken, Hernandez, and Bergesen - while lesser prospects - are probably the rookie starters we have the best shot of seeing in Baltimore this season. Also, another wildcard would be Patton.

[Anonymous]

I would have gone 2/10. If everything broke right he could have been a reliever in 2010. But it looks unlikely that everything would breaks right.

Not getting Looper probably means that the O's carry 13 pitchers.

Guts

Uehara is a question. He has a lot of adjustments to make. Its like Jamie Moyer trying to learn the league. I would expect no more then 120-150 IP.

Hill may be ok until his back catches up to him.

Penn has no durability. He is a reliever if he makes the team.

Pauley probably shows enough to make the rotation. But it is a learning year.

Hennessey chances just improved.

Baez chances just improved.

Liz was not ready last year. Was not ready in winter ball. Probably needs to start at AAA.

Patton probably needs to be in the minors for a while.

Albers will really to tested as he puts stress on the shoulder. To think he can put up a lot of innings is probably more a wish then reality.

Hendrickson- this improves this chances to make the rotation which is a bad thing. The word fodder comes to mind. Trachsel part II.

Tillman, DHernandez, Bergesen, or Berken maybe in the 2nd half but they probably get shut down in Sept. So you might see one or two of them for a month.

Arrieta and Matusz - not this year. Too early to know about next year.

Waters, Bass, and Simon's chances just improved.

This looks a lot like the SS situation last years. There is really not enough major league quality to do the job. So the O's try this, and try that. A lot of movement. But 4 open slots are a lot to fill.

A continuation of a 5.30 team ERA looks very possible.

Wow, that is WAY too pessimistic, IMO. Is there massive uncertainty here? Yes, of course. But uncertainty in this case will probably be resolved with some guys disappointing, whereas others will exceed expectations to varying degrees. The SS situation last year had no such upside glimmer.

[Tx Oriole]

Thanks bb. I'm curious to learn what your personal opinion is on this one. Should Andy have countered with a higher 1st-year base to try to compensate for Looper's obvious preference to stay in the NL? Or do you think he drew the line at the right place in the sand? (I'm not sure what my answer would be, BTW.)

I beleive Andy M. did the right thing. Let Looper be a Brewer. He did not want to come to Baltimore then fine and dandy.

[Tx Oriole]

I agree but I think you should give up on this point. No one seems to be able to understand it. They keep talking in terms of wins and ERA. Then when half the OD pen is on the DL in Sept. they'll be blaming DT for mismanaging the bullpen.

I am afraid you are right.

[Tx Oriole]

I agree with SG. Give that rotation spot to guys out of options:

Guts

Uehara

Penn

Pauley

Hill

But BRob what will you do when Penn, Pauley, Hill can't go more than 4 innings? Then you ahve to go to the BP. Really Koji is a question mark too. I hope and pray he does good. I am real glad Andy didn't cave in to Looper. But I just have to agree with BB.Team needs another starter to eat innings. IMO