Cease vs everyone else

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think it’s silly to count on Means 

We wouldn't be. We would be waiting to see how he does and then replace him if needed.

[interloper]

Here's a good article on Cease's struggles last year. https://www.southsidesox.com/2023/10/23/23925118/what-went-wrong-dylan-cease-chicago-white-sox-ace-to-mere-mortal-ethan-katz

Quote

In 2023, Cease’s velo was down across the board, which is red flag No. 1. Even if his breaking balls remained exactly the same, a slower fastball (down to 95.6 mph, a significant drop) has compounding consequences throughout the arsenal. The second red flag is that Cease’s slider didn’t remain the same. It was also thrown slower (down 1 mph) and had a shape that was more cutter-ish, meaning more positive vertical break and less of that right-to-left horizontal break that causes right-handed hitters to have nightmares. The pitch displayed less of the abnormal pitch qualities that made it so successful for Cease in 2022.

Cease’s fastball didn’t lose much spin or induced vertical break, which is good. But still, raising your fastball usage while your velocity is down doesn’t seem to make sense — until you realize that his slider was also in flux.

Looking at Cease’s Stuff+, it confirms what result-based stats told us. Each of his four pitch types were worse in 2023, with his fastball representing the lowest drop-off (127 to 125) and his slider representing the largest (a massive drop, from 136 to 120). A 16-point drop in Cease’s slider Stuff+ is a good illustration of the consequences of the velo drop and bad shape change.

Command+ shows that there wasn’t a huge drop with any pitch type, and Cease’s 2023 results didn’t point to any command or control issues. He lowered his walk rate, and threw more first-pitch strikes.

Continuing to tree down to the root of the issues as closely as possible, a glaring detail of Cease’s 2023 season is that his release extension was up two to three inches across the board. He was getting down the mound significantly more, and that seems to be either unintentional, or that it created unintended consequences that hampered his ability to build on his 2022 season.

 

[MCO'sFan]

21 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think it’s silly to count on Means 

I think he will have a good year. I am counting on him for about 140 - 150 IP

[Safelykept]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We wouldn't be. We would be waiting to see how he does and then replace him if needed.

Silly to count on Means? Waiting to see how he Does? Did you did not see how he pitched in (SSS) last year? They should be looking to extend him?

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Silly to count on Means? Waiting to see how he Does? Did you did not see how he pitched in (SSS) last year? They should be looking to extend him?

You must have been watching something else because he looked pretty bad to me. Didn't miss any bats, barely could register a strikeout. FIP was almost 3 runs above his ERA (5.24 FIP to 2.66 ERA), only 3.8 K/9. He was able to gut through those starts, but he was definitely not the same guy. You can probably chalk that up to rust and working back from TJS, but then of course he had the elbow soreness to put him back on the shelf for the playoffs.

All of that does not inspire confidence. Do I think he's a 3.8 K/9 pitcher suddenly, no... but I'm also not counting on him to be an ace or even an innings eater next year. 

Edited January 3 by interloper

[sportsfan8703]

20 minutes ago, interloper said:

Here's a good article on Cease's struggles last year. https://www.southsidesox.com/2023/10/23/23925118/what-went-wrong-dylan-cease-chicago-white-sox-ace-to-mere-mortal-ethan-katz

 

Sounds like the classic situation where the fastball and cutter(slider) start to merge as 1 pitch.  That's the dangers of a cutter, whether he meant to or not.  

[clapdiddy]

19 minutes ago, interloper said:

You must have been watching something else because he looked pretty bad to me. Didn't miss any bats, barely could register a strikeout. FIP was almost 3 runs above his ERA (5.24 FIP to 2.66 ERA), only 3.8 K/9. He was able to gut through those starts, but he was definitely not the same guy. You can probably chalk that up to rust and working back from TJS, but then of course he had the elbow soreness to put him back on the shelf for the playoffs.

All of that does not inspire confidence. Do I think he's a 3.8 K/9 pitcher suddenly, no... but I'm also not counting on him to be an ace or even an innings eater next year. 

Yup.   Means is one reason the rotation needs an upgrade.   I'm hopeful that he can get close to his old form, but we can't count on that. 

[Safelykept]

14 minutes ago, interloper said:

You must have been watching something else because he looked pretty bad to me. Didn't miss any bats, barely could register a strikeout. FIP was almost 3 runs above his ERA (5.24 FIP to 2.66 ERA), only 3.8 K/9. He was able to gut through those starts, but he was definitely not the same guy. You can probably chalk that up to rust and working back from TJS, but then of course he had the elbow soreness to put him back on the shelf for the playoffs.

All of that does not inspire confidence. Do I think he's a 3.8 K/9 pitcher suddenly, no... but I'm also not counting on him to be an ace or even an innings eater next year. 

Really? Pitched to a 2.66 era again (SSS) Did Not look good how bout those 6 no hit innings against Cleveland . Guess that was a gut check because he did not strike out 10. I'll make this simple for you. Do you remember the letdown that came with the news  that he would be unavailable for the playoffs, and you would get your choice of Kremer or Gibson for game 3. I remember the letdown and if you don't , I question you're Oriole  Fandom

[emmett16]

46 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

I think he will have a good year. I am counting on him for about 140 - 150 IP

I’ll be excited to see him throw in ST.  He could very well throw 0IP.  Elbow pain 4 starts after returning from TJ is pretty worrisome.  

[Orioles Jim]

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/orioles/news/baltimore-orioles-projected-trade-package-land-white-sox-star-brad9?fbclid=IwAR3zauS03WhZ16G0LvUORQBzMh6vw0XohWfdiTtd-NVHEBs2xQF62IbwCM8_aem_AZdKlROyitLEQOlZqh7N-XAujXv5l4fDER15t4QxqP-6s-iauGVroUYAOC9gCch6qB4
 

Kjerstad/Basallo/Norby for Cease??

Sweet Jheeeeeeeeeeeeesus NO!!!!

Potentially the one saving grace is that with the ChiSox ineptitude, maybe none of them develop and it doesn’t bite us in the ass. But still. No. Absolutely not. Under NO circumstances.

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, Orioles Jim said:

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/orioles/news/baltimore-orioles-projected-trade-package-land-white-sox-star-brad9?fbclid=IwAR3zauS03WhZ16G0LvUORQBzMh6vw0XohWfdiTtd-NVHEBs2xQF62IbwCM8_aem_AZdKlROyitLEQOlZqh7N-XAujXv5l4fDER15t4QxqP-6s-iauGVroUYAOC9gCch6qB4
 

Kjerstad/Basallo/Norby for Cease??

Sweet Jheeeeeeeeeeeeesus NO!!!!

Potentially the one saving grace is that with the ChiSox ineptitude, maybe none of them develop and it doesn’t bite us in the ass. But still. No. Absolutely not. Under NO circumstances.

Lol, "utilityman" Samuel Basallo.

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I’ll be excited to see him throw in ST.  He could very well throw 0IP.  Elbow pain 4 starts after returning from TJ is pretty worrisome.  

Makes me wonder if Elias even had the budget space to sign Kimbrel and Gibson?  Even though Givens, and Frazier, came off the books, everyone else got raises in arb.  

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Makes me wonder if Elias even had the budget space to sign Kimbrel and Gibson?  Even though Givens, and Frazier, came off the books, everyone else got raises in arb.  

Yes, he has the financial flexibility to sign 1-year players to $10m-$15m deals. He has the flexibility to acquire a good SP with several years of control through arbitration. He isn't limited by an additional $3.5m for Jordan Montgomery, he likely just didn't want to part with the same tier of prospects as early as the Rangers made that deal.

There's a significant difference between these type of deals and 4+ year commitments to players in their late 20's/early 30's for $20m+/year.

[interloper]

25 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Really? Pitched to a 2.66 era again (SSS) Did Not look good how bout those 6 no hit innings against Cleveland . Guess that was a gut check because he did not strike out 10. I'll make this simple for you. Do you remember the letdown that came with the news  that he would be unavailable for the playoffs, and you would get your choice of Kremer or Gibson for game 3. I remember the letdown and if you don't , I question you're Oriole  Fandom

At ease soldier lol. Of course I was bummed he missed the playoffs. I was hoping with more reps he would start to look more like himself. I understand the ERA he pitched to, that was great. However, the peripherals suggest that with a larger sample, he might have gotten lit up - again, that's depending on whether or not he started to round back into form. 

Means is a great pitcher, but the facts are he's coming off a very serious injury and it's not a guarantee that he will be the same guy. Another fact is that he typically misses a chunk of the year with shoulder soreness. So, there's just a lot of question marks with him. When he's healthy and the changeup is working, he's fantastic. I'm not trying to dunk on him or anything, but he's a guy you just can't earmark for 180 innings next season. Something like that would be a best case scenario. 

Edited January 3 by interloper

[deward]

10 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Lol, "utilityman" Samuel Basallo.

And "ace" Dylan Cease.