Why Ryan O’Hearn Must Go (Sorry, Ryan)

[NCRaven]

To be clear, I don't believe that Mountcastle should be on any "no-trade" list, like Holliday, Mayo and Basallo.  In fact, I've said several times that I think that Basallo could be his ultimate replacement by 2025.  And, I think Mayo fits best in RF with Kjerstad belonging nowhere near the infield grass. 

I just think that this board generally undervalues Mountcastle.  His career OPS+ is 114.  That's not average.  It's 14% above league average.  His Statcast numbers are outstanding with all of xwOBA (81 percentile), xBA (80), xSLG (89), Avg Exit Velo (83), Barrel% (79), Hard Hit% (70) and Sweet Spot% (66) all well above average.  His Sprint Speed was 73 percentile, very high for a first baseman.  Even his K% (43) and BB% (41) were close to middle of the pack.  Contrary to public opinion, players with those numbers don't grow on trees.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

To be clear, I don't believe that Mountcastle should be on any "no-trade" list, like Holliday, Mayo and Basallo.  In fact, I've said several times that I think that Basallo could be his ultimate replacement by 2025.  And, I think Mayo fits best in RF with Kjerstad belonging nowhere near the infield grass. 

I just think that this board generally undervalues Mountcastle.  His career OPS+ is 114.  That's not average.  It's 14% above league average.  His Statcast numbers are outstanding with all of xwOBA (81 percentile), xBA (80), xSLG (89), Avg Exit Velo (83), Barrel% (79), Hard Hit% (70) and Sweet Spot% (66) all well above average.  His Sprint Speed was 73 percentile, very high for a first baseman.  Even his K% (43) and BB% (41) were close to middle of the pack.  Contrary to public opinion, players with those numbers don't grow on trees.

I think it has less to do with folks undervaluing Mountcastle and more to do with understanding that we probably need to churn and burn some of these players when they start to age if they aren't elite and if we have potential replacements waiting in the wings. If he isn't traded this offseason he certainly should be traded next offseason. 

[wildbillhiccup]

57 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Luis Arráez played first for the Twins and he’s listed at 5’10.

This article is a bit dated, but it does a pretty good job of illustrating the point that having a 1B under 6' is pretty rare. As for Arraez, I just think the Twins probably saw it as the lesser of two levels (between 2B and 1B) since their DH spot was already filled. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1200.html

 

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

 

I just think that this board generally undervalues Mountcastle.  His career OPS+ is 114.  That's not average.  It's 14% above league average. 

Last year the average 1B had a 111 OPS+, DH was 106.   So while Mountcastle was above average, he’s not 14% above average when you consider the positions he plays.   And of course, the average numbers at those positions include all the backups.   

I’m not saying that to disparage Mountcastle.  Just providing context.  He’s been worth 5.2 rWAR, 4.7 fWAR in 439 games.   That”s respectable, but nothing great.

I think there are two obvious questions with Mountcastle.   First, will his good batted ball data eventually translate into better results on batted balls?  We’ve all seen the last two years that his wOBA (.316 and .333 in 2022-23) has fallen well short of his xwOBA (.362 and .357).   Is that bad luck, or is there something about where he tends to hit the ball that yields subpar results compared to others with similar EV and LA numbers?  I have seen theories but I don’t think we know for sure.  

The second question relates to streakines and his tendency to chase bad pitches.  For a guy with decent overall numbers, he can be a pretty worthless hitter for 1-2 months at a time.  He’s frustrating to watch when things are going badly.  Can he figure out a way to shorten the cold streaks, make them less extreme and make the pitchers work harder to get him out even when he’s struggling a bit?

I still have a fair bit of hope that Mountcastle has another gear, or maybe more accurately, that he can stay in his higher gear more consistently.   But the version we’ve seen, while okay, is expendable   

 

[wildcard]

IMO its not so much about Mountcastle but more about will Basallo or Mayo grow into more powerful first baseman?  If Basallo is the hitter we think he is he will get more playing time than backup catcher.  They will want his bat in the lineup almost every day.

[Jagwar]

13 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

We have plenty of 1B/DH types. 

Perhaps I should have clarified. I would love to see Westburg get some reps at 1B to increase his versatility and have another option when it's time to let Mountcastle go. 

[Safelykept]

On 1/16/2024 at 12:39 PM, Frobby said:

Last year the average 1B had a 111 OPS+, DH was 106.   So while Mountcastle was above average, he’s not 14% above average when you consider the positions he plays.   And of course, the average numbers at those positions include all the backups.   

I’m not saying that to disparage Mountcastle.  Just providing context.  He’s been worth 5.2 rWAR, 4.7 fWAR in 439 games.   That”s respectable, but nothing great.

I think there are two obvious questions with Mountcastle.   First, will his good batted ball data eventually translate into better results on batted balls?  We’ve all seen the last two years that his wOBA (.316 and .333 in 2022-23) has fallen well short of his xwOBA (.362 and .357).   Is that bad luck, or is there something about where he tends to hit the ball that yields subpar results compared to others with similar EV and LA numbers?  I have seen theories but I don’t think we know for sure.  

The second question relates to streakines and his tendency to chase bad pitches.  For a guy with decent overall numbers, he can be a pretty worthless hitter for 1-2 months at a time.  He’s frustrating to watch when things are going badly.  Can he figure out a way to shorten the cold streaks, make them less extreme and make the pitchers work harder to get him out even when he’s struggling a bit?

I still have a fair bit of hope that Mountcastle has another gear, or maybe more accurately, that he can stay in his higher gear more consistently.   But the version we’ve seen, while okay, is expendable   

 

Yeah but those OPS numbers for 1B, Dh or for all positions

[sportsfan8703]

Does O’Hearn get moved before OD?  Since we didn’t trade Cowser or Kjerstad. 

[Sanity Check]

On 1/16/2024 at 11:48 AM, NCRaven said:

To be clear, I don't believe that Mountcastle should be on any "no-trade" list, like Holliday, Mayo and Basallo.  In fact, I've said several times that I think that Basallo could be his ultimate replacement by 2025.  And, I think Mayo fits best in RF with Kjerstad belonging nowhere near the infield grass. 

I just think that this board generally undervalues Mountcastle.  His career OPS+ is 114.  That's not average.  It's 14% above league average.  His Statcast numbers are outstanding with all of xwOBA (81 percentile), xBA (80), xSLG (89), Avg Exit Velo (83), Barrel% (79), Hard Hit% (70) and Sweet Spot% (66) all well above average.  His Sprint Speed was 73 percentile, very high for a first baseman.  Even his K% (43) and BB% (41) were close to middle of the pack.  Contrary to public opinion, players with those numbers don't grow on trees.

I find it interesting that there is a lot of hope (by some) that Mayo could be our answer in right filed.  He has not played the outfield professionally at all, and guys who have only played outfield in the minors  (such as Cowser and Kjerstad) are met with skepticism about just good they really are out there.  If a guy like Cowser - who has played outfield his entire life struggle when they get to the majors, how long would it take someone who hasn't played there at all?

And if someone argues that Mayo is an athlete and can learn it, what are we then saying about an athlete like Cowser who made many on here question how good he really is.

All of that being said, I'd love to see Mayo be a very competent right-fielder if that's where we need him.  I'd take it in a heartbeat if his bat sticks at the major league level. 

[Tony-OH]

On 1/15/2024 at 9:33 AM, wildbillhiccup said:

Wouldn't it make more sense to trade Mountcastle, who actually has some trade value, and give the majority of 1B ABs to Kjerstad who has nothing left to prove at AAA? Then just just O'Hearn as a spot starter or a fall back plan if Kjerstad struggles? 

Kjerstad looked nowhere near playable at 1B last year. Now I imagine he's had a whole off season of working on it so perhaps he'll be better. Heck, I hope he can show that he can play there because it opens up more PAs for him. 

I agree with the OP, O'Hearn probably needs to go. Can't send a 26-year old Kjerstad back to AAA of give him 300 PAs between RF, DH and maybe an occasional LF start in Boston. O'Hearn is not good enough defensively in RF for him to gain value there so hopefully a team will have a need at 1B/DH and come a knocking late in spring training.

[Tony-OH]

On 1/16/2024 at 12:39 PM, Frobby said:

Last year the average 1B had a 111 OPS+, DH was 106.   So while Mountcastle was above average, he’s not 14% above average when you consider the positions he plays.   And of course, the average numbers at those positions include all the backups.   

I’m not saying that to disparage Mountcastle.  Just providing context.  He’s been worth 5.2 rWAR, 4.7 fWAR in 439 games.   That”s respectable, but nothing great.

I think there are two obvious questions with Mountcastle.   First, will his good batted ball data eventually translate into better results on batted balls?  We’ve all seen the last two years that his wOBA (.316 and .333 in 2022-23) has fallen well short of his xwOBA (.362 and .357).   Is that bad luck, or is there something about where he tends to hit the ball that yields subpar results compared to others with similar EV and LA numbers?  I have seen theories but I don’t think we know for sure.  

The second question relates to streakines and his tendency to chase bad pitches.  For a guy with decent overall numbers, he can be a pretty worthless hitter for 1-2 months at a time.  He’s frustrating to watch when things are going badly.  Can he figure out a way to shorten the cold streaks, make them less extreme and make the pitchers work harder to get him out even when he’s struggling a bit?

I still have a fair bit of hope that Mountcastle has another gear, or maybe more accurately, that he can stay in his higher gear more consistently.   But the version we’ve seen, while okay, is expendable   

 

Mountcastle needs a breakout year this year or his time is probably up here in Baltimore. His .235/.291/.349/.640 against right-handed pitching has to significantly improve this year. This may be a reason to keep O'Hearn around if Kjerstad does not show an ability to play 1B effectively this spring. 

If Mountcastle is struggling into May against right-handers, he's going to need to be platooned. Mountcastle would make an excellent pinch-hitter against left-handed relievers as well. 

They Orioles are missing that right-handed punch on their bench right now.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Mountcastle needs a breakout year this year or his time is probably up here in Baltimore. His .235/.291/.349/.640 against right-handed pitching has to significantly improve this year. This may be a reason to keep O'Hearn around if Kjerstad does not show an ability to play 1B effectively this spring. 

If Mountcastle is struggling into May against right-handers, he's going to need to be platooned. Mountcastle would make an excellent pinch-hitter against left-handed relievers as well. 

They Orioles are missing that right-handed punch on their bench right now.

Mountcastle’s career splits against RHP are decent (.742 OPS), so I go into 2024 assuming that his .640 in 2023 was an outlier.   But we’ll see.   

[sportsfan8703]

We just have too many options with higher ceilings than O’Hearn. I even forgot about Mayo getting some of O’Hearn’s ABs.

Ideally, we’d want to trade O’Hearn for a RH RP with at least one option. However, that’s a really narrow path to a trade. We’ll probably have to sell O’Hearn to whatever the highest bid is and be happy with getting some minor leaguer.

As for O’Hearn’s potential replacements… it’s not what they are on OD, but we’re developing them for August/September/Playoffs. Cowser RF + Santa DH > Santa RF + O’Hearn DH

[wildbillhiccup]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Kjerstad looked nowhere near playable at 1B last year. Now I imagine he's had a whole off season of working on it so perhaps he'll be better. Heck, I hope he can show that he can play there because it opens up more PAs for him. 

I agree with the OP, O'Hearn probably needs to go. Can't send a 26-year old Kjerstad back to AAA of give him 300 PAs between RF, DH and maybe an occasional LF start in Boston. O'Hearn is not good enough defensively in RF for him to gain value there so hopefully a team will have a need at 1B/DH and come a knocking late in spring training.

In hindsight I do find it a bit interesting that our general mentality (myself included) is that we can basically stick anyone at 1B. Even stranger considering that a lot of us probably grew up watching one of the best in game (at the time) play in Eddie Murray. Hopefully they give Kjerstad plenty of reps at 1B in the OF during Spring Training and he gets more comfortable at one or both positions. That would certainly make getting his bat in the lineup a heckuva lot easier, even without a trade. 

[RVAOsFan]

36 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Mountcastle needs a breakout year this year or his time is probably up here in Baltimore. His .235/.291/.349/.640 against right-handed pitching has to significantly improve this year. This may be a reason to keep O'Hearn around if Kjerstad does not show an ability to play 1B effectively this spring. 

If Mountcastle is struggling into May against right-handers, he's going to need to be platooned. Mountcastle would make an excellent pinch-hitter against left-handed relievers as well. 

They Orioles are missing that right-handed punch on their bench right now.

JD Martinez?