Orioles close to acquiring Corbin Burnes (Update: Acquired for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall)

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

Committed to running 150m payrolls?.....it's not 2015 anymore. That would still be below league average (in 2024 that is). The question should be if they are committed to running 200m payrolls, not 150m. 200m in 2025 and beyond will still only be 12-14th overall. It's like this fanbase has been in a payroll coma for a decade and just woke up. Wait how much do players cost now? And these teams are spending how much?? Wow! So much has changed. 

Two serious questions for you, Mr. Genius:

1.  What payroll do you think the Orioles could run without losing money?

2.  Do you think an owner has an obligation to run the franchise at a loss?

The Orioles undoubtedly have earned large profits in 4 of the last 5 years.  That doesn’t change the fact that Baltimore is a smaller than average market that will earn smaller than average revenues, and therefore will need to operate on a smaller than average payroll in a “typical” season, unless the owner decides to subsidize the team.   You’ve had this long-running fantasy that MASN is some fantastic cash cow that somehow advantages the Orioles over other teams, but we know from FACTS readily available in the published arbitration decisions and court  proceedings that the profits of MASN (after paying the market-price rights fees as determined by the arbitrators) are not that significant.   In fact, the new owners are paying as much for the Orioles and MASN combined as Forbes had projected the Orioles were worth without MASN.   That tells you all you need to know.  

So yes, I’m glad to be rid of the Angelos family and their need to rake excess profits from the Orioles, but I’m not expecting the O’s to routinely run top-half of the league payrolls.  They can do it once in a while like most teams do, but when you look at a decade or so of data they’ll still be in the bottom half of the league because that’s what their market will support.  MLB itself recognizes Baltimore as one of the ten smallest markets and gives them extra draft picks, draft spending allotments and international spending allotments.  They don’t do that because they love the Orioles, they do it because of the FACT that our potential revenues are smaller than most teams.  
 

[TradeAngelos]

I'm as happy as it gets right now.  Funny you have to claim otherwise. 

The beautiful part about this ownership transition is how every single know it all about what this team and market can afford is going to be blown straight out of the water in the coming years, and all the delusional homers who bought into this small market nonsense are going to look foolish. That's why you hate people like me, because we are going to be proved correct while you are are going to be proven wrong. Sit back and watch. You see this is an actual good thing if you can put your ego aside and admit what some of us have known all along. You just wanted to believe so so much. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

17 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

Committed to running 150m payrolls?.....it's not 2015 anymore. That would still be below league average (in 2024 that is). The question should be if they are committed to running 200m payrolls, not 150m. 200m in 2025 and beyond will still only be 12-14th overall. It's like this fanbase has been in a payroll coma for a decade and just woke up. Wait how much do players cost now? And these teams are spending how much?? Wow! So much has changed. 

I’m well aware how much teams are spending. $150M is right around the median, which is where they were pre-John Angelos. And of course I think that the Orioles should be spending at least that much. But $150M is still a MASSIVE departure from what the Orioles have been doing under John Angelos.

I think it’s a safe assumption that new ownership will be more amendable to running higher payrolls. But it’s still a big question of how much higher. And they’re not going to sign Burnes to an extension unless they’re committed to at least returning to the middle of the pack in payroll. Hopefully they are and are open to even higher than that, but middle of the pack is the most we can realistically hope for with what we know right now.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So Burnes will be 30 at the end of next year when he is a FA. He will play all on 2025 at 30 as he has an October Birthday. So what would be a reasonable extention foe him?

Comps:

1) Gerrit Cole, Yankees: 9 years, $324 million (2020-28); Age 29 season to begin, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS.

2) Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals – 7 years, $245M (2020-26); Age 31 season, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS

3) David Price, Red Sox,  7 years, $217 million (2016-22); Age 29 season, one CYA, 5 time AS

4) Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 7 years $215 million (2014-2020); Age 26 season, 3 time CYA, one MVP, 4 time AS

5) Zach Greinke, D-backs, 6 years, $206.5 million (2016-21); Age 32, one CYA, 2 GG, 3 time AS

2025 best case scenario for Burnes (he is both an AS and wins the CYA in 2024) Age 30 season, 2 CYA, 4 time AS.

 

So I would speculate that a reasonable offer to Burnes for a FA contract next year would be right around Strasburg money: 7 years and $250 M. Any thoughts on that?

Do it. 

You pay studs. You have to pay some studs if you want a team of studs. Some of that has to go to pitching. That's reality. Do it.

[Tony-OH]

55 minutes ago, SilentJames said:

If there is one thing that we can say about John Angelos is that he is leaving the team in a much better position than it was in when he became the point person. I know that became official in 2020 - but he was COO and an EVP all the way back to 99, I figure he was probably functionally leading things for a bit longer than the official 2020 transfer. 

I know you are a bit of an Angelos family apologist, but come on now, that's not a high bar to get over when it comes to his father running things. 

JA has done one thing right and that was hiring Elias. Now that's a major thing and worthy of getting props for, but his sliminess overall just hurts even that accomplishment.

[Tony-OH]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s possible but I think it’s unlikely.

As I said  in another thread, Elias had to have already been talking to the Brewers about Burnes. We know he was talking about Cease and those two are like 6-7M difference in salary.

So, would Elias have been discussing these trades and wasting his time if he didn’t know if Angelos would allow the payroll increase?  I just find that hard to believe. 
 

I certainly think Elias has been working the Burnes deal for a lot longer than a couple of days. While I don't know the answer, it seems to make sense that he was able to pull the trigger or decided to pull the trigger on the Burnes deal for two reasons. 

1) He was was given the go ahead to spend the $15 million when the deal was done.

2) He thinks there is a chance that he could extend him now with Rubenstein as owner vice with Scrooge McDuck running things like he was going to lose his inheritance if he spent more than the bare minimum.

 

 

[TradeAngelos]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Two serious questions for you, Mr. Genius:

1.  What payroll do you think the Orioles could run without losing money?

2.  Do you think an owner has an obligation to run the franchise at a loss?

The Orioles undoubtedly have earned large profits in 4 of the last 5 years.  That doesn’t change the fact that Baltimore is a smaller than average market that will earn smaller than average revenues, and therefore will need to operate on a smaller than average payroll in a “typical” season, unless the owner decides to subsidize the team.   You’ve had this long-running fantasy that MASN is some fantastic cash cow that somehow advantages the Orioles over other teams, but we know from FACTS readily available in the published arbitration decisions and court  proceedings that the profits of MASN (after paying the market-price rights fees as determined by the arbitrators) are not that significant.   In fact, the new owners are paying as much for the Orioles and MASN combined as Forbes had projected the Orioles were worth without MASN.   That tells you all you need to know.  

So yes, I’m glad to be rid of the Angelos family and their need to rake excess profits from the Orioles, but I’m not expecting the O’s to routinely run top-half of the league payrolls.  They can do it once in a while like most teams do, but when you look at a decade or so of data they’ll still be in the bottom half of the league because that’s what their market will support.  MLB itself recognizes Baltimore as one of the ten smallest markets and gives them extra draft picks, draft spending allotments and international spending allotments.  They don’t do that because they love the Orioles, they do it because of the FACT that our potential revenues are smaller than most teams.  
 

I expect league average at a minimum. With all the young talent we have for dirt cheap that puts us in a position to win a WS every year for the next 4. Is that too much to ask? Are we running at a loss at league average? Normally I would use all the money that "hasn't" been spent in last 5 yrs as leverage for more, but we know that last owner just stole all that money and it is gone now. Johnny isn't as dumb as we all thought, he hoarded hundreds of millions of cash over last 5 yrs and then took off and ran with it. 

 

[LookinUp]

30 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

At least one person gets it. Maybe the other 500 around here will get it one day. 

I'm taking your side in this. The O's payroll should probably be between $150 and $200 million annually.

I think the O's big problem will be in 4-5 years when those numbers will have to swell big time. They'll have to figure out how to make the books work at that point. On the other hand, maybe by then they'll be filling the stadium with a lot more fans, have an actual profitable TV rights deal and be regular recipients of playoff revenue. That could change everything.

With all of this said, even extensions to Gunnar, Adley and Holliday are mostly going to be back loaded. Now is a perfect time to bring a guy like Burnes in, maybe front load the money a bit to entice him and have a less severe escalation in future payrolls, and count the wins.

[Tony-OH]

34 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

At least one person gets it. Maybe the other 500 around here will get it one day. 

What are you talking about? Stop generalizing the board, it makes you look silly. You act like everyone here thinks the Orioles are not going to spend more than what JA has done. That's ridiculous and mischaracterizes most of the board.

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I certainly think Elias has been working the Burnes deal for a lot longer than a couple of days. While I don't know the answer, it seems to make sense that he was able to pull the trigger or decided to pull the trigger on the Burnes deal for two reasons. 

I 100% think the O's couldn't make significant changes to payroll while they were finalizing this deal. 

I don't think that fact means Angelos is cheap. I just think it means that the major financials were settled on and shouldn't be changed in the middle of the process. I think that's standard operations during a massive deal like this.

[Going Underground]

49 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Burnes is going to get a massive deal because of his durability. I’m sure Boras’ asking price will be to surpass Cole’s deal and he’s not going to extend prior to free agency for anything less.

The Orioles do this deal regardless of extension, but I do think it opens a small sliver of possibility of signing Burnes long term. It only happens if the Orioles new ownership group is committed to running $150M+ payrolls every year AND Elias thinks Burnes is one of the rare exceptions where a mega SP contract is advisable given the team composition and Burnes’ durability, and now they have a year of access to knowing his work ethic/conditioning/current health in a way that you don’t get when signing a free agent. 

Between Adley, Gunnar, Holliday and now Burnes (and potentially Snell/Montgomery?), Elias and new ownership sure are going to have a lot to talk about with Boras. The “Boras players never sign extensions” axiom, which is largely true with some exceptions, is going to get tested. The Orioles have literally zero future financial commitments and all of that possibility from new ownership could be directed to Boras clients. 

I don't think Adley is a Boras client 

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

Couldn't agree more. That is why it is so frustrating to read this stuff.  We have never been a small market team, but this fanbase has been beaten into submission over and over again by former ownership so bad they just can't wrap their head around this. I hope they prepare themselves for what is coming, they might have a nervous breakdown if we actually start spending at the ......middle of the pack level. 

This is where we might have a point of departure. Under Peter Angelos we were a mid-market for the most part (expect for during the mid-late 90's where we were top spenders). But that is all the money that he had to spend, thus that is why the Christ Davis contract was structured the way it was. He bought the team in the early 90's for less than $200 million. He may have been a billionaire in terms of asset valuation, but he simply did not have the capital from assets outside of baseball to compete with the wealthiest of owners (especially after the asbestos war chest dried up).

However, under John Angelos, we were definitely a very small market. He did not have anything close to the capital that say the owners of the Astros/Braves/Rangers/Padres/Mets etc have. As a matter of fact, I am not very confident that he had much of any assets outside of the Orioles/MASN. Now, that by no means excuses his awfulness and his cheapness. But it is to say that he did NOT have the money to swim at the deep end of the pool.

But with this new ownership coming in we are certainly NOT anything close to a small market anymore. As a matter of fact as I stated several times now, if you take Rubenstein's and Arougheti's net worths alone, the sum total adds up to more than all but TWO current owners (Braves and Mets). And that does not include the financial power of a Michael Bloomberg who has more money that both combined X3 almost at $17+ billion.

[CaptainRedbeard]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Do it. 

You pay studs. You have to pay some studs if you want a team of studs. Some of that has to go to pitching. That's reality. Do it.

I agree with you, so long as it doesn’t compromise your ability to pay other studs that are better value (i.e. extending young guys). But the Orioles’ payroll obligations are so wide open that they should be able to lock in 1-2 premium free agents at full market prices and still be able to. So they should be exploring it with Burnes.

The problem is Burnes is going to hit the market and we’re going to be up against the Dodgers and Yankees. No we he’s extending for less than his starting asking price, which won’t be a penny less than $325M. Boras was asking for 9/270 for Blake Snell.  As good and as durable as Burnes is, I’ll believe it when I see it that the Orioles are willing to shell that out, let alone to a 30 year old pitcher. 

Burnes is almost certainly going to be a rental but it was still a good deal.

[Hank Scorpio]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

This is where we might have a point of departure. Under Peter Angelos we were a mid-market for the most part (expect for during the mid-late 90's where we were top spenders). But that is all the money that he had to spend, thus that is why the Christ Davis contract was structured the way it was. He bought the team in the early 90's for less than $200 million. He may have been a billionaire in terms of asset valuation, but he simply did not have the capital from assets outside of baseball to compete with the wealthiest of owners (especially after the asbestos war chest dried up).

However, under John Angelos, we were definitely a very small market. He did not have anything close to the capital that say the owners of the Astros/Braves/Rangers/Padres/Mets etc have. As a matter of fact, I am not very confident that he had much of any assets outside of the Orioles/MASN. Now, that by no means excuses his awfulness and his cheapness. But it is to say that he did NOT have the money to swim at the deep end of the pool.

But with this new ownership coming in we are certainly NOT anything close to a small market anymore. As a matter of fact as I stated several times now, if you take Rubenstein's and Arougheti's net worths alone, the sum total adds up to more than all but TWO current owners (Braves and Mets). And that does not include the financial power of a Michael Bloomberg who has more money that both combined X3 almost at $17+ billion.

The deepness of the pockets of ownership have nothing to do with the size of the market.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

I expect league average at a minimum. With all the young talent we have for dirt cheap that puts us in a position to win a WS every year for the next 4. Is that too much to ask? Are we running at a loss at league average? Normally I would use all the money that "hasn't" been spent in last 5 yrs as leverage for more, but we know that last owner just stole all that money and it is gone now. Johnny isn't as dumb as we all thought, he hoarded hundreds of millions of cash over last 5 yrs and then took off and ran with it. 

 

If you mean league median, that seems reasonable.  The league mean is skewed because of a few super wealthy teams at the top.  

And FWIW, I agree that there are times where a team needs to be opportunistic and stretch its payroll when a good chance for a deep playoff run is there.  But you also want to do that in a way that isn’t going to box you in for 5-10 years.   And right now, the O’s probably don’t need to stretch their payroll to their break even point to compete for a WS.   They might need to do that in a couple of years when their key young guys start getting expensive, and to keep several of the core guys intact.  You can easily see a day when Adley, Gunnar, Bradish, Rodriguez, Bautista and  Holliday are going to cost $70 mm/yr more than they cost now even before they hit free agency, and we will want room to keep those guys and hopefully extend at least some of them.

 

Edited February 2 by Frobby