The Athletic - MLB insiders rank starting pitchers

[dzorange]

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For the past five seasons, we have been canvassing executives, scouts and analysts to identify the best starting pitchers in baseball, the aces.

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The grading system is also straightforward. A No. 1 grade nets five points, a No. 2 grade nets four, No. 3 nets three, No. 4 nets two and No. 5 nets one. An asterisk adds a half point to the score. We culled the list down to a top 50, split into five tiers:

Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle: The unanimous No. 1s.

Tier 2 (99.5 to 90) — Aces: The pitchers you can trust all regular season and again in October.

Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Pool of Applicants: The men who might one day call themselves aces.

Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s: Those with lower ceilings, but still elevated floors. It should be noted — these guys are awesome at baseball.

Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — No. 4s and No. 5s: Everyone else. Or, in the parlance of the scouting world, “just a guy.”

 

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3. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Baltimore Orioles 

Rating: 94

Ace votes: 15

In the eyes of our pool, Burnes has become less overpowering than he was during his breakout season in 2021. “Stuff has declined just a tick in each of the last two years,” one executive said. “He’s still great.” The second part of the sentiment appears to be a consensus. “It’s a special combination of durability and stuff,” one scout said. “I say ‘special’ because usually you have one and half the other. He’s proven he has both.” Hence why Baltimore parted with a pair of strong prospects and a draft pick to acquire Burnes for his final season before free agency.

The marriage between Burnes and the Orioles is unlikely to last beyond 2024. He figures to land a sizable contract on the open market, despite the concerns about his declining stuff. This season will offer a test of his mettle, one scout said. “He fell off just a bit,” the evaluator said. “What does he do in a tougher division?”

 

 

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22 (tie). Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles 

Rating: 71

Ace votes: 1

Applicant votes: 6

Rodriguez demonstrated enough during his debut last season to hearten the evaluators who boosted him during his minor-league career. Several pegged him as a future No. 1. His development will be crucial for Baltimore this season, especially with Bradish on the shelf at the outset. One scout suggested Rodriguez would benefit from junking his slider, which is less impressive than his changeup and curveball.

 

 

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24. Kyle Bradish, RHP, Baltimore Orioles 

Rating: 69

Applicant votes: 2

Bradish took a significant step forward in 2023, cutting down his walks and upping his strikeout rate while establishing himself atop the Orioles rotation. Bradish “might be the most underrated guy in baseball right now,” one scout said. Which made his injury this spring all the more dispiriting. He has resumed his throwing program and looks like he can avoid surgery. But UCL injuries are always worrisome.

 

https://theathletic.com/5352336/2024/03/20/2024-mlb-aces-project-starting-pitchers/

 

Edited March 20 by dzorange

[dystopia]

Who was above Burnes? Wheeler and Cole?

[24fps]

4 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Who was above Burnes? Wheeler and Cole?

Cole and Strider.

[Just Regular]

Burnes will do a lot better than Blake Snell if he can match him as a 2-time Cy.    He's perhaps the betting favorite anyway with Gerrit Cole down...can he trampoline off the April schedule to an early lead?

"I'm better than Yoshinobu Yamamoto" is starting off in easy mode.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Burnes will do a lot better than Blake Snell if he can match him as a 2-time Cy.    He's perhaps the betting favorite anyway with Gerrit Cole down...can he trampoline off the April schedule to an early lead?

"I'm better than Yoshinobu Yamamoto" is starting off in easy mode.

I bet a lot of teams saw the 2022 Orioles on the schedule and just assumed it would be a cakewalk.

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I bet a lot of teams saw the 2022 Orioles on the schedule and just assumed it would be a cakewalk.

Granted you can't predict baseball, but even you've said the roster is strong enough the front office could/should be planning for October.

Is any describing word appropriate for the overall strength of the month's opponents relative to the entire league?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

Granted you can't predict baseball, but even you've said the roster is strong enough the front office could/should be planning for October.

Is any describing word appropriate for the overall strength of the month's opponents relative to the entire league?

I just don't think anyone should overlook the possible competitiveness of any other team.

The O's can't just throw their jockstraps on the field and get the W.

[Billy F-Face3]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I just don't think anyone should overlook the possible competitiveness of any other team.

The O's can't just throw their jockstraps on the field and get the W.

I agree with this. I was watching a encore of the blue jays spring training game and it just got me thinking that the Blue Jays have a lineup with the potential to get hot like the Rangers lineup did last season, if they can all put it together at the same time. I was thinking about our division rivals and how alot of the teams in our division are capable of having an excellent season in spite of their bad 2023 seasons. The Yankees have retooled and even without Cole they have alot of good players and they have pitchers who have had success in the league before. 

About the only AL East division rival I think won't be a huge threat for the division championship is the Red Sox.

And that's not even diving into the rest of the American League. Texas is a great example of how fast teams can turn it around from one season to the next.

[ChosenOne21]

In what universe is Kyle Bradish a "number two or number three starter?" You'd have to believe his last year was a fluke. I doubt there were ten starting pitchers who had a better year than him last year by any reasonable metric.

This is why I can't stand "rankings" of starting pitchers--"Ace," "number 1" etc. because they're based on this ridiculous fantasy of what the starting pitching talent distribution looks like.

Thirty teams with five rotation spots equals 150 starting pitchers. Do you know how low you would have to set the innings pitched bar to get 150 starting pitchers above it last year? 70.

But sure, Kyle Bradish is "mid-rotation."

What a joke. It's these guys' jobs to be more informed than this.

[dystopia]

21 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

In what universe is Kyle Bradish a "number two or number three starter?" You'd have to believe his last year was a fluke. I doubt there were ten starting pitchers who had a better year than him last year by any reasonable metric.

This is why I can't stand "rankings" of starting pitchers--"Ace," "number 1" etc. because they're based on this ridiculous fantasy of what the starting pitching talent distribution looks like.

Thirty teams with five rotation spots equals 150 starting pitchers. Do you know how low you would have to set the innings pitched bar to get 150 starting pitchers above it last year? 70.

But sure, Kyle Bradish is "mid-rotation."

What a joke. It's these guys' jobs to be more informed than this.

The Orioles always get shat on by the media. Just the way it is. 

[dzorange]

I don't think Bradish being ranked the 24th best pitcher is being shat on. Actually it's 25th, they numbered the article incorrectly at the time and has since been edited.

The way the rankings are broken down, it's clear that when they say number two or number three, that it's meant for playoff caliber teams.

Do people really consider Bradish to be a #1? If he is, why was getting a #1 pitcher a priority? And that doesn't take into account that the O's also have Rodriguez. 

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I doubt there were ten starting pitchers who had a better year than him last year by any reasonable metric.

Is WAR not a reasonable metric?

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What a joke. It's these guys' jobs to be more informed than this.

They literally based this article on the thoughts of executives, scouts and analysts. 

[Spy Fox]

The article does say of the pitchers in Bradish's tier, "It should be noted — these guys are awesome at baseball."

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, dzorange said:

I don't think Bradish being ranked the 24th best pitcher is being shat on. Actually it's 25th, they numbered the article incorrectly at the time and has since been edited.

The way the rankings are broken down, it's clear that when they say number two or number three, that it's meant for playoff caliber teams.

Do people really consider Bradish to be a #1? If he is, why was getting a #1 pitcher a priority? And that doesn't take into account that the O's also have Rodriguez. 

Is WAR not a reasonable metric?

They literally based this article on the thoughts of executives, scouts and analysts. 

Because two aces are better than one? Did you forget what division we’re in?

To be fair, I was more interested in the bullpen than SP over the winter, but given the injuries, I concede I was wrong and I’m glad Elias went and got Burnes.

[ChosenOne21]

7 hours ago, dzorange said:

I don't think Bradish being ranked the 24th best pitcher is being shat on. Actually it's 25th, they numbered the article incorrectly at the time and has since been edited.

The way the rankings are broken down, it's clear that when they say number two or number three, that it's meant for playoff caliber teams.

Do people really consider Bradish to be a #1? If he is, why was getting a #1 pitcher a priority? And that doesn't take into account that the O's also have Rodriguez. 

Is WAR not a reasonable metric?

They literally based this article on the thoughts of executives, scouts and analysts. 

Last year, Bradish was way better than the 25th best pitcher in baseball. Like I said, you'd have to think last year was a fluke to rank him that low.

WAR is a somewhat reasonable metric for pitchers, though I like it better for hitters. He was 16th in fWAR for starting pitchers last year, but I think that's underselling him a bit. WAR is heavily based on innings pitched, and on a per inning basis he was better than some of the people above him.

Yes, Bradish's season last year was that of a #1 pitcher. Even if we limit it to playoff teams, I'll bet his season was better than the best starting pitcher season on at least one team that made the playoffs and probably several.

I don't care that they're executives, scouts, and analysts. Their distribution is way too bottom heavy, even for "playoff caliber" teams, whatever that means. Bradish was the best starting pitcher on a playoff caliber team, so even if that's their silly standard, he's a #1 by their own definition. How is Grayson Rodriguez not an "applicant" by their standards? Does he really have little to no chance to be an "ace?"

I'm not claiming anti-Oriole bias here--I just can't see how they ranked other teams' pitchers. I'm sure I'd have issues there, too.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Last year, Bradish was way better than the 25th best pitcher in baseball. Like I said, you'd have to think last year was a fluke to rank him that low.

WAR is a somewhat reasonable metric for pitchers, though I like it better for hitters. He was 16th in fWAR for starting pitchers last year, but I think that's underselling him a bit. WAR is heavily based on innings pitched, and on a per inning basis he was better than some of the people above him.

Yes, Bradish's season last year was that of a #1 pitcher. Even if we limit it to playoff teams, I'll bet his season was better than the best starting pitcher season on at least one team that made the playoffs and probably several.

I don't care that they're executives, scouts, and analysts. Their distribution is way too bottom heavy, even for "playoff caliber" teams, whatever that means. Bradish was the best starting pitcher on a playoff caliber team, so even if that's their silly standard, he's a #1 by their own definition. How is Grayson Rodriguez not an "applicant" by their standards? Does he really have little to no chance to be an "ace?"

I'm not claiming anti-Oriole bias here--I just can't see how they ranked other teams' pitchers. I'm sure I'd have issues there, too.

I wouldn't say a fluke, just had a strong year.

Folks are acting like 25th overall is somehow a bad ranking.  That's lower end #1 higher end #2 starting pitcher.  I think that's fair considering the sample size.

Edited March 22 by Can_of_corn