Could the Orioles be in on Jordan Montgomery after the season officially starts?

[Frobby]

Maybe it’s just me, but I think Montgomery is kind of overrated.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s an above average starter who’s coming off a career year.   I’d like to have him.   But is he worth the kind of money I hear people kicking around?  I don’t think so.  

[ChuckS]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Maybe it’s just me, but I think Montgomery is kind of overrated.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s an above average starter who’s coming off a career year.   I’d like to have him.   But is he worth the kind of money I hear people kicking around?  I don’t think so.  

I would take him at 1/25 or 2/40.  That's the new going rate for a number 2 or 3 starter, which is what he is. 

I think it's tough to get your head around the money, but then you gotta look around the rest of the league and see what guys are getting paid. 

[NashLumber]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Maybe it’s just me, but I think Montgomery is kind of overrated.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s an above average starter who’s coming off a career year.   I’d like to have him.   But is he worth the kind of money I hear people kicking around?  I don’t think so.  

3 things: 

1. I agree, it's a LOT of money
2. It's not my money
3. I'd welcome it if that's the decision, however

[dystopia]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Maybe it’s just me, but I think Montgomery is kind of overrated.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s an above average starter who’s coming off a career year.   I’d like to have him.   But is he worth the kind of money I hear people kicking around?  I don’t think so.  

I don’t think he’s overrated at all. Very consistent in terms of ERA and making starts since his TJS. 

[Bemorewins]

I know that this may be an unpopular opinion. But when assessing the costs, IMO you have to factor in how low the actual payroll now and the opportunity that his acquisition presents. You have a chance to acquire a player who helps raise the floor of the projectable outcome for the next season or 2 while will be a bottom half payroll in the sport.  Otherwise our fate for this season (at least our starting rotation) is dependent upon players who are injured and may or may not return to form and in hoping that Irvin magically gets the job done with below average stuff.

[Just Regular]

Just as during the Cease rumors when BAL and NYY were both rumored in (and publicly Bradish and Cole were thought to be healthy), a "two Jordan Montgomery swing" between division contenders is spicy, but I do believe he is more good than great.

His kind of good could be very important over the long haul of a 162-game division race.

[jamalshw]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Maybe it’s just me, but I think Montgomery is kind of overrated.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s an above average starter who’s coming off a career year.   I’d like to have him.   But is he worth the kind of money I hear people kicking around?  I don’t think so.  

I'm of this mind as well, but we're now at the point where his price has come down much like we saw with Bellinger, Chapman and Snell. If it's a shorter commit, I think it would be worthwhile, but I don't see the Orioles doing it, even under a new owner...UNLESS they strongly believe Bradish isn't pitching this year. 

 

[clapdiddy]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Maybe it’s just me, but I think Montgomery is kind of overrated.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s an above average starter who’s coming off a career year.   I’d like to have him.   But is he worth the kind of money I hear people kicking around?  I don’t think so.  

I've been an advocate for Montgomery, but I like your take.  I only want Montgomery on a 1 or 2 year deal.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I know that this may be an unpopular opinion. But when assessing the costs, IMO you have to factor in how low the actual payroll now and the opportunity that his acquisition presents. You have a chance to acquire a player who helps raise the floor of the projectable outcome for the next season or 2 while will be a bottom half payroll in the sport.  Otherwise our fate for this season (at least our starting rotation) is dependent upon players who are injured and may or may not return to form and in hoping that Irvin magically gets the job done with below average stuff.

I doubt that’s an unpopular opinion.  

[ThisIsBirdland]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Maybe it’s just me, but I think Montgomery is kind of overrated.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s an above average starter who’s coming off a career year.   I’d like to have him.   But is he worth the kind of money I hear people kicking around?  I don’t think so.  

Over the past three years he's averaged 175 IP with a 3.5 ERA/3.6 FIP, an average 121 ERA+, and 3.1 rWar. Only 8.4 k/9 but he keeps the walks down and the HR/9 is reasonable at about 1. His stats always hover within a pretty stable range. To me he's in the Chris Bassitt mold in terms of ideal consistency but with nothing overpowering, and he's 4 years younger and a lefty.

As a fan I personally prefer that profile to the Snell/Cease types. As long as his price gets into that $20m-$25m range and the O's are on board with the duration, I think he's worth that as a strong #2 SP.

Edited March 26 by ThisIsBirdland

[LookinUp]

14 hours ago, Keygans said:

Exactly.  No such thing as a bad 1 year deal in any sport . 

Well, 2 years with a player opt-out after 1 isn't a 1 year deal. It puts the team on the hook for $20+ million in a year that could theoretically be missed with injury. That's a real risk for a #3 starter.

I do love the idea of him in our rotation though. Burnes, Montgomery, Rodriguez, Means, Bradish allows us to spread out the righties/lefties, move all of Kremer, Wells and Irvin to the pen, etc. Assumes perfect health, but that's a hell of a plan.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Over the past three years he's averaged 175 IP with a 3.5 ERA/3.6 FIP, an average 121 ERA+, and 3.1 rWar. Only 8.4 k/9 but he keeps the walks down and the HR/9 is reasonable at about 1. His stats always hover within a pretty stable range. To me he's in the Chris Bassitt mold in terms of ideal consistency but with nothing overpowering, and he's 4 years younger and a lefty.

As a fan I personally prefer that profile to the Snell/Cease types. As long as his price gets into that $20m-$25m range and the O's are on board with the duration, I think he's worth that as a strong #2 SP.

I think that’s a reasonable take.   The duration is key here.   

[ScGO's]

Montgomery was seeking 7 years, he won't get it. More likely to be 1 or 2 years now.

I wonder if a 5 year, 5 opt out contract would do it. Go 30-25-20-15-10 with a 5 mill signing bonus

Guaranteed 35 mil over 1 year. 105 over 5 years if he stays (he won't). Maybe he stays for year two, slight possibility for year three, but I don't see him staying all five unless some sort of freak injury happened

Edited March 26 by ScGO's

[waroriole]

If he gets a deal similar to Snell, I’d be all for it. I have no interest in giving him more than a couple of years though. 

[Just Regular]

Adjacent to this, do you harbor any hope Rubenstein will invest heavily enough to retain Burnes?

If you put $20M on Montgomery for 2025, I think it does close any small door on a Burnes retention.

Hopefully Corbin Burnes is about to have the most successful baseball season of his life, and the team he has it with may want to compete for his services.    We know pretty clearly today the Orioles likely won't have multiple expensive LTC's on Arms.