Colton Cowser 2024

[wildcard]

There seems to be consensus that Cowser is a good center fielder.  Palmer even said it.    So  if his offense is going through a Rookie Adjustment Period that is par for the course.   He should come out of it like Adley and Gunnar did.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They've got Adley and Gunnar I don't really think I should expect even more consistently great players.  Hopefully Jackson will be #3.

Would you call him a "good" player right now? I sort of can't decide. His defense and Mullins' struggles are keeping him here for now, but I'm pretty close to wanting to see more of Stowers and Kjerstad. If he was walking more I'd be less concerned. 

Edited June 12 by interloper

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Would you call him a "good" player right now? I sort of can't decide. His defense and Mullins' struggles are keeping him here for now, but I'm pretty close to wanting to see more of Stowers and Kjerstad. If he was walking more I'd be less concerned. 

I need to see more.

I'm not convinced he wasn't just on a burner earlier in the year.

I'd rather give him more rope than see Stowers or Kjerstad, but then again I've been down on Kjerstad since draft day so I'm biased.

[catseyepub]

So early in his career, hell go one of two ways.

Be a  consistent good hitter and a star or so inconsistent that you stay in the league a while, but get passed around from team to team in the hopes that the acquiring team will unlock his potential.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I think we’ve seen what Cowser is. A good but flawed player, who is going to struggle in matchups that aren’t in his favor.

-Defense better than advertised (albeit with the poor throws sometime); can reliably handle CF and is elite in the corners, which really raises his value. 

-Tons of whiff, cannot handle lefties or righty changeups. 

-Good chase rates, walks enough to get on base enough to make up for the low batting average, but may only be a .230ish hitter.

-Good against fastballs and does well enough on righty breaking balls, hitting for power on the pitches he can handle.

He really would be best optimized as a part time player sitting against LHP and righty starters with good changeups/splitters. But he’s young and offering such good defense, if we don’t have righty platoon CF it makes sense to keep running him out there nearly everyday to give him opportunities to improve in those areas. But he’s going to put up some ugly at bats when facing some guys whose repertoires are capable of exploiting his weaknesses.

One silver lining, Cowser is the type of guy to REALLY benefit from an automated strike zone. He has a good eye but regularly gets killed by called strikes low or off the plate, since pitchers know not to attack him anywhere else. He sometimes swings at those to protect even though he can’t do anything with them. If we get some version of ABS next year, I expect it will help Cowser immensely.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

There seems to be consensus that Cowser is a good center fielder.  Palmer even said it.    So  if his offense is going through a Rookie Adjustment Period that is par for the course.   He should come out of it like Adley and Gunnar did.

Again, the results aren’t there but a lot of stats tell you he’s doing the correct things and his approach is pretty solid.

[LGOrioles]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Would you call him a "good" player right now? I sort of can't decide. His defense and Mullins' struggles are keeping him here for now, but I'm pretty close to wanting to see more of Stowers and Kjerstad. If he was walking more I'd be less concerned. 

He’s definitely been struggling with the bat but even taking into account last year, he’s put up 1.5 WAR in 292 career PA’s. That’s almost the exact same pace in terms of value that Mullins provided in 2022 (3.6 WAR in 672 PA’s). That’s still a good player and his underlying stats provide a lot more upside with the bat than his 93 wRC+ indicates. His defense and baserunning have made his floor a lot higher than it seems like most initially thought. 

Edited June 12 by LGOrioles

[banks703]

3 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I think we’ve seen what Cowser is. A good but flawed player, who is going to struggle in matchups that aren’t in his favor.

-Defense better than advertised (albeit with the poor throws sometime); can reliably handle CF and is elite in the corners, which really raises his value. 

-Tons of whiff, cannot handle lefties or righty changeups. 

-Good chase rates, walks enough to get on base enough to make up for the low batting average, but may only be a .230ish hitter.

-Good against fastballs and does well enough on righty breaking balls, hitting for power on the pitches he can handle.

He really would be best optimized as a part time player sitting against LHP and righty starters with good changeups/splitters. But he’s young and offering such good defense, if we don’t have righty platoon CF it makes sense to keep running him out there nearly everyday to give him opportunities to improve in those areas. But he’s going to put up some ugly at bats when facing some guys whose repertoires are capable of exploiting his weaknesses.

One silver lining, Cowser is the type of guy to REALLY benefit from an automated strike zone. He has a good eye but regularly gets killed by called strikes low or off the plate, since pitchers know not to attack him anywhere else. He sometimes swings at those to protect even though he can’t do anything with them. If we get some version of ABS next year, I expect it will help Cowser immensely.

Baseball is a game of adjustments. Defining who a player is after 80 or so games gives us the Justin Turners and Jose Bautistas of the world. It’s still very early in his career. Most will suggest 1500 ABs gives an idea of who a hitter is at the MLB level. 

The league adjusted to him and in turn, he will adjust or he will not adjust. That is who he is as a hitter right now. No more and no less. He could go on another burner and prove to be a streaky hitter like Mountcastle and to a lesser extent Ant but it’s still way too early to know who he is as a hitter. I keep comparing him to Charlie Blackmon. I see that career arc in his future. I’ll argue that of the current rostered position players, maybe only Gunnar and Adley (and throw in Jorge based on pure talent) have more complete talent than does Cowser.

But does he adjust to how he’s been pitched the last month plus? That’s the question. I suppose we’ll know at the end of the season. I would keep running him out there to see if he can grow that 1.9 WAR (fangraphs) that he’s accumulated the first 66 games. Because right now he’s 5th in WAR for them. If he’s a 4 Win Player, he’s quite a bit better than good but flawed. He’d be a damn good player.

There were only 54 guys who had a WAR of 4 or better last year. It’d be pretty damn good if that’s who CC is as a player. 

[Too Tall]

I just keep waiting for Cowser to get more consistent. I think he will be fine. He really looks like the grind is getting to him. Not so much in need of a reset as a week of R&R. Westy is getting a well-deserved rest tonight too. Glad Gunnar was finally given a breather last night. We worry about relief pitcher usage. These young players trying to adjust to the major league grind, carve out a good career, while playing all out the way they do, arn't Ripkins. We still have over half a season to go. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

IMO Cowser shows some of the 'it' factor that we saw in guys like AR and Gunnar right away, even if they weren't tearing up the league at first.  They still all made plays or got hits that made you pay attention.  Special plays. 

 

I see that in Cowser and I think the guys ITT that are poo pooing those signs are missing the boat.

He is going to be a very VERY good player.

[Malike]

Cowser's expected numbers are trending down from deep red to light red. Statcast is descriptive and it's starting to trend in the direction that our eyes can see on the field. I don't think it can be argued the results since his scorching hot April haven't been good. 

I don't think Kjerstad would play the same level of defense, but I think he could out-hit him, and I'm not sure Stowers can do either over a sustained stretch of ABs but I wouldn't be against them trying. I suspect they are going to hope he can maybe get hot again and push for ROY but he has virtually no chance.

[Yossarian]

Are Cowser's struggles against good left-handed pitching similar to what Henderson's were - he just hasn't been exposed to enough good LH pitching to this point in his career?  Once Gunnar saw more and more LHP, he started to figure out how to hit them.   It could be the same for Cowser.

[LGOrioles]

5 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Are Cowser's struggles against good left-handed pitching similar to what Henderson's were - he just hasn't been exposed to enough good LH pitching to this point in his career?  Once Gunnar saw more and more LHP, he started to figure out how to hit them.   It could be the same for Cowser.

Not sure but he has a 124 wRC+ against RHP’s and 76 wRC+ against LHP’s (with a 39.6 K%). He should be playing every game against RHP’s (like tonight) and be shielded somewhat against LHP’s like Gunnar last year, the problem is Mullins has a 14 wRC+ against LHP’s. 

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

There seems to be consensus that Cowser is a good center fielder.  Palmer even said it.    So  if his offense is going through a Rookie Adjustment Period that is par for the course.   He should come out of it like Adley and Gunnar did.

He's posted a positive OAA on statcast in CF, albeit in limited innings.  He looks the part, too, so I'm buying.

 

He's the 3rd highest in statcast fielding runs in MLB behind Marcus Simien and Dalton Varsho.  He's been incredible in the outfield, which has made up for his sinking bat.

[OnlyOneOriole]

4 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

IMO Cowser shows some of the 'it' factor that we saw in guys like AR and Gunnar right away, even if they weren't tearing up the league at first.  They still all made plays or got hits that made you pay attention.  Special plays. 

 

I see that in Cowser and I think the guys ITT that are poo pooing those signs are missing the boat.

He is going to be a very VERY good player.

I just made my point.