Kjerstad Joining Team

[Sports Guy]

It’s official

 

 

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, catseyepub said:

Overwhelmingly, players career years is at age 26.

He's already 25, yes he can be a late bloomer but remember most great prospects come up at ages 20-23.

Holidays got 5 years on him.

Well the heart issues kind of robbed him of 2 years. I'm just glad he made it back to a baseball field given the potential severity of his health issues. AND he looks this good again.

Given the massive amount of our other talent, I will take that gladly!

The Orioles have so much organizational talent that we are not dependent upon ANY singular player/prospect in order to be a great team for many years to come (and that includes Holliday).

[CallMeBrooksie]

11 minutes ago, catseyepub said:

Overwhelmingly, players career years is at age 26.

He's already 25, yes he can be a late bloomer but remember most great prospects come up at ages 20-23.

Holidays got 5 years on him.

You don't have to be 20 to be a good prospect. You also have to consider Heston had a serious heart condition and was drafted in the lost COVID year.

[Malike]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Lower the bar to 400 PAs and there were 27.  Health and platoons?  Still less than 1 per team. 

In the early going, there are 42 over .850.  Still wouldn't count on it, but crazier things have happened from lesser talent over the course of a season.

As a team, O's team OPS is .780.  Sure a few mild surprises, but also a nothing burger from Holliday.

I thought we were talking about everyday players. Sure, you'll get guys with an .850 OPS in 300-400 ABs.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

The projection systems aren’t everything, but ZIPS for example projects Santander to have a wRC+ of 119, Mountcastle 110, Cowser 99, and Kjerstad 98. I know that the shiny new prospects are fun, but I think it leads to undervaluing what some of the more established players will produce, and the difficulty in replicating it. Offense certainly isn’t everything, and Cowser provides defensive value, which will help his WAR, but Kjerstad will not.

I’m not including Hays in this because I think Cowser has already replaced him, but I do think replicating what Mountcastle and Santander will provide is more difficult than a lot of people think.

Do I think Cowser will outperform the ZIPS projection? I don’t know, probably, but Jorge Mateo was electric and put up a 187 wRC+ last season through April 30th (I’m not comparing Cowser to Mateo, I’m just using it to show how early in the season we still are at this point).

Do I think Kjerstad will outperform the ZIPS projection? Again, I don’t know, but having seen him play in Norfolk, he makes more contact than Cowser, but has worse plate discipline, so how does that play? Does he tap into the raw power or are pitchers able to induce weak contact because he can make contact with pitcher’s pitches? I also don’t like the jumps he gets in the outfield, so there is more pressure on the bat. This isn’t to say he won’t be a good player or that his peak won’t be higher than Mountcastle or Santander’s peak, just that replicating their production this year is not a given.

The Orioles are headed in a direction where we will have good to great hitters 1- 9. Even if we take a step back whenever Kjerstad takes over for Santander or if Mayo takes over for O'Hearn or Mountcastle next year (which is reasonable to project), we will still be an elite offense because of everyone else.

I don't want to say this lacking humility, but with the massive amount of talent that the Orioles have collected, it's too big/too much to really go wrong.

[btdart20]

8 minutes ago, Malike said:

I thought we were talking about everyday players. Sure, you'll get guys with an .850 OPS in 300-400 ABs.

I though we were talking about HK and didn't notice the conversation was about Mayo.

I think your main point about an .850 OPS being exceptional is valid.  Just added some extra data points around it.

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The Orioles are headed in a direction where we will have good to great hitters 1- 9. Even if we take a step back whenever Kjerstad takes over for Santander or if Mayo takes over for O'Hearn or Mountcastle next year (which is reasonable to project), we will still be an elite offense because of everyone else.

I don't want to say this lacking humility, but with the massive amount of talent that the Orioles have collected, it's too big/too much to really go wrong.

Take it easy buddy.  You’re scaring me.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Take it easy buddy.  You’re scaring me.

I've been talking like this since 2022 (really since I decided to join the board and start posting). I've been reading the board since like 2007.

I started to get the notion when Elias punted the 2022 (and sold at the deadline). I thought "Oh this guy is really trying to build a future dynasty!"

[Malike]

8 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I though we were talking about HK and didn't notice the conversation was about Mayo.

I think your main point about an .850 OPS being exceptional is valid.  Just added some extra data points around it.

Gotcha, we got all kinds of screwed up there.

[Orioles0615]

So who goes when Hays comes back if Heston hits? I also will wonder if Heston gets enough ABs ?

[Just Regular]

Before Sig came on Brian Kenny's show this afternoon, they had a graphic BAL is already leading MLB in xwOBA.

That's despite including the Chris Davis mode inputs from most of the 2B so far this season.

Sigbot is a machine without apology, so no offense to Gunnar, Mayo, Basallo but it maybe regards its Adley, Kjerstad, Cowser, Holliday unit about to be unveiled as its Mount Rushmore, at least to the extent bonus dollars indicate assessed value.

It would be a nice grace from the baseball gods if Game 1 of the assembly is also one Holliday peppers the gaps once or twice.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I've been talking like this since 2022 (really since I decided to join the board and start posting). I've been reading the board since like 2007.

I started to get the notion when Elias punted the 2022 (and sold at the deadline). I thought "Oh this guy is really trying to build a future dynasty!"

Ok.  Things are the best they’ve ever been, at least since the 69-71 heyday but easy on the too big to fail and this ship is unsinkable talk.   It’s baseball.  A lot of stuff can go wrong.   Don’t mess with the baseball gods.  

[LookinUp]

25 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

The projection systems aren’t everything, but ZIPS for example projects Santander to have a wRC+ of 119, Mountcastle 110, Cowser 99, and Kjerstad 98.

...

I’m not including Hays in this because I think Cowser has already replaced him, but I do think replicating what Mountcastle and Santander will provide is more difficult than a lot of people think.

1. I'm not familiar with how ZIPS projects prospects versus established pros, but it seems like they dock the prospects a bit. I don't know that though.

2. The broader point is the profile of guys that Elias is going after versus the guys that previous regimes went after. Elias' guys have hit tools and power similar to Santander and Mountcastle, but they tend to have better swing decisions and higher OBPs. That's why I project them to be better. That's why the O's projected them to be better.

With all of that said, it's not like Mountcastle/Santander/Mullins/Hays aren't all under the same tutelage as everyone else at this point. It stands to reason that they can improve in those swing decision areas too, which I agree does make it a closer call.

Then you consider the cheaper contracts of the new guys and it's less close again, IMO.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Ok.  Things are the best they’ve ever been, at least since the 69-71 heyday but easy on the too big to fail and this ship is unsinkable talk.   It’s baseball.  A lot of stuff can go wrong.   Don’t mess with the baseball gods.  

LOL... I tried to say it with humility.

Of course unforeseen things can happen that are beyond anyone's control or ability to anticipate.

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

So who goes when Hays comes back if Heston hits? I also will wonder if Heston gets enough ABs ?

Million dollar question. There are too many good pros to put on the roster. I suppose that's a great problem to have. Maybe they start putting guys who struggle on the DL? lol