Kjerstad Joining Team

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, Explosivo said:

I saw Heston play in Houston (say that three times fast) and that guy hit a homerun that looked like he barely swung at all and yet it powered over the right field wall. Heston is incredibly strong, big, and has great plate discipline. Santander is great because he’s a switch hitter, but if Heston can hit lefties, they really are very similar players. Here’s hoping his defense has improved because he’s the heir apparent in right.

I believe in Kjesrtad's ability with the bat in his hand. But I don't know if he is a lock to be the heir apparent in RF. That could belong to Mayo.

[Ohfan67]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I believe in Kjesrtad's ability with the bat in his hand. But I don't know if he is a lock to be the heir apparent in RF. That could belong to Mayo.

Mayo hasn't played a single inning in the outfield during his minor league career. The Orioles do some weird stuff in terms of defensive positions, but you think they would play him like one game in the OF if they thought it was his future. 

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Mayo hasn't played a single inning in the outfield during his minor league career. The Orioles do some weird stuff in terms of defensive positions, but you think they would play him like one game in the OF if they thought it was his future. 

I heard that he's been taking some balls out there. I'm sure pretty soon he will see some action out there during games.

Yes you are right, they do weird things including leaving Holliday primarily at SS last year, after it became quite clear that it was going to be Gunnar's position on the O's.

It is now becoming pretty clear that Westburg will be at 3B, so that is probably what is precipitating the notion of Mayo needing to learn 1B and RF.

[catseyepub]

At his age he's probably more of a suspect than a prospect but I'm hoping for the best.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, catseyepub said:

At his age he's probably more of a suspect than a prospect but I'm hoping for the best.

He’s definitely not a suspect 

[Flash- bd]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I'm not saying the bolded is impossible. But what are the odds of that happening for the rest of this season, even if he were to be called up tomorrow?

I'm not sure how much value Moutcastle would have (even if he continues to have a very good season) to a team who is rebuilding/reseting/tanking/whatever you want to call it. Mountcastle would seem to have more value to a team who is trying to win and needs offensive production at 1B/DH. And if they are already trying to win, what pitching are they willing to depart with. The only team I can think of that may fit this mold is SEA.

IMO that's way too much to give up for a relief pitcher, considering that we only need a good middle reliever. We don't need Emmanuel Clase for the rest of this season. It looks like Kimbrel will do. And then next year Felix will be coming back.

I don't think you can ever have more pitching and as I say, the better and better the team gets the smaller the margins are for upgrading, so have to think about it pretty differently as we move into this stage, IMO. Fact is ~.800 OPS 1B don't retrieve that much on the trade market. We know postseason is something of a crapshoot but we also know that Wettland-Rivera-Nelson Rivera-Nelson-Stanton can help increase your odds a little bit at least. 

Re: the bolded I'm talking about next season. I'm okay with Mayo only getting his feet wet this season but I really think he should probably be our starting day 1B. 

1 hour ago, Malike said:

There were 18 players in all of MLB who had an OPS of .850 or higher last year. I don't think people realize that is a pretty high bar.

Fair point, but I still think Mayo is a special bat, and I'm also setting an extremely optimistic bar for Mountcastle there. If you change the question to, will Mayo be able to outperform Mountcastle in his first full season or at least match his performance, I am pretty confident the answer is yes, and that is meaning no disrespect to Mountcastle who I've really come to like and value. 

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, catseyepub said:

At his age he's probably more of a suspect than a prospect but I'm hoping for the best.

Are you referring to Kjerstad?

[Fiver6565]

6 minutes ago, catseyepub said:

At his age he's probably more of a suspect than a prospect but I'm hoping for the best.

If that's a real opinion then its you who's the suspect...

[now]

Interesting to see Elias's draft pecking order playing out in the priority of new additions to the roster. Heavily leaning on the #1's, while the others wait in line. 

Observe the departed ones too (Ortiz, Hernaiz), lower down the ranks (and expect Mayo to be the exception). Granted, Stowers already had his initial shot too, but now sits in limbo. BTW, I notice both Mountcastle* and Akin were former round 2's, and Hays and Baumann "suspects" at round 4.  

*Mountcastle technically round 1 (36), but selected after DJ Stewart (25).

Edited April 23 by now

[LookinUp]

45 minutes ago, deward said:

Better than Santander is a higher bar than some people seem to think. HK or Cowser will have had a really nice rookie year if they can accomplish that.

I'm not crushing Santander either, but he's a career .765 OPS guy. It was .797 last year. His only year over .800 was the Covid year. He plays average defense. Not a butcher, but not exactly rangy out there.

Long story short, I think you can get similar power with more OBP from Kjerstad and Cowser with similar defense for Kjerstad and better for Cowser.

So yes, I'd say they'll be better than Santander.

[oriolediehard]

39 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I believe in Kjesrtad's ability with the bat in his hand. But I don't know if he is a lock to be the heir apparent in RF. That could belong to Mayo.

Kjesrtad was Elias's #1 pick in 2020 draft and #2 overall, so Elias saw something great in him.  Can you all imagine how powerful the O's will be if Holliday starts to hit and Kjerstadt hits like he did in the minors, Kjesrtad did good when he was called up in 2023.  They will be the Baltimore Bombers!

[TheWall]

4 minutes ago, now said:

Interesting to see Elias's draft pecking order playing out in the priority of new additions to the roster. Heavily leaning on the #1's, while the others wait in line. 

Observe the departed ones too (Ortiz, Hernaiz), lower down the ranks (and expect Mayo to be the exception). Granted, Stowers already had his initial shot too, but now sits in limbo. BTW, I notice both Mountcastle and Akin were former round 2's, and Hays and Baumann "suspects" at round 4.  

I think you'd see a much stronger correlation to how they were rated in the minors vs. draft position. Westburg has been treated similarly to Cowser and Kjerstad. Adley, Gunnar and Holliday were all consensus #1 prospects and have been given pretty much immediate every day player status.

[catseyepub]

26 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

If that's a real opinion then its you who's the suspect...

Overwhelmingly, players career years is at age 26.

He's already 25, yes he can be a late bloomer but remember most great prospects come up at ages 20-23.

Holidays got 5 years on him.

[Sydnor]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I will not be shocked if Kjerstad forces himself into the lineup. LH or not, he and Cowser are better than Hays and probably Santander. There will be a timeshare for sure, and it could take a minute, but Kjerstad could be an even better hitter than Cowser.

The projection systems aren’t everything, but ZIPS for example projects Santander to have a wRC+ of 119, Mountcastle 110, Cowser 99, and Kjerstad 98. I know that the shiny new prospects are fun, but I think it leads to undervaluing what some of the more established players will produce, and the difficulty in replicating it. Offense certainly isn’t everything, and Cowser provides defensive value, which will help his WAR, but Kjerstad will not.

I’m not including Hays in this because I think Cowser has already replaced him, but I do think replicating what Mountcastle and Santander will provide is more difficult than a lot of people think.

Do I think Cowser will outperform the ZIPS projection? I don’t know, probably, but Jorge Mateo was electric and put up a 187 wRC+ last season through April 30th (I’m not comparing Cowser to Mateo, I’m just using it to show how early in the season we still are at this point).

Do I think Kjerstad will outperform the ZIPS projection? Again, I don’t know, but having seen him play in Norfolk, he makes more contact than Cowser, but has worse plate discipline, so how does that play? Does he tap into the raw power or are pitchers able to induce weak contact because he can make contact with pitcher’s pitches? I also don’t like the jumps he gets in the outfield, so there is more pressure on the bat. This isn’t to say he won’t be a good player or that his peak won’t be higher than Mountcastle or Santander’s peak, just that replicating their production this year is not a given.

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

Kjesrtad was Elias's #1 pick in 2020 draft and #2 overall, so Elias saw something great in him.  Can you all imagine how powerful the O's will be if Holliday starts to hit and Kjerstadt hits like he did in the minors, Kjesrtad did good when he was called up in 2023.  They will be the Baltimore Bombers!

Yes, I can imagine an elite offense vying for best in the game. That is how the team has built and IMO that was the true purpose of the extreme tank. And why MLB changed the draft rules. Many have seen this coming.

It's just nice that it looks like that time is is finally here or very close.