Draft Targets 2 Months Out

[OriolesMagic83]

On 5/6/2024 at 11:43 AM, RZNJ said:

34. Brody Brecht

RHP

Ht: 6'4" | Wt: 205 | B-T: R-R

Age: 21

School: Iowa

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.8

It’s hard to match the pure arm talent, athleticism and upside that Brecht has. A former dual-sport athlete who was a wide receiver on Iowa’s football team, Brecht finally dropped football and focused exclusively on pitching during his junior year on campus. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound righthander was a reliever as a freshman and transitioned to a starting role as a sophomore and between his first two seasons he posted a 4.33 ERA in 99.2 innings with a 34.3% strikeout rate and 19.2% walk rate. Brecht’s fastball is one of the hardest in college baseball. He averaged 97.5 mph in 2023 and has been up to 101 and he pairs the heater with a hellacious, high-80s slider that has double plus potential. Brecht’s question marks are as big as his arm strength, and he needs to prove in 2024 that he can throw significantly more strikes and profile as a starter. Scouts are excited about what a full offseason working on his craft will do, and there’s a chance he showcases a new splitter and two slider shape variants during his junior season. Brecht’s pure upside is second to none, but his risk is high as well.

 

 

64. Michael Massey

RHP

Ht: 6'5" | Wt: 230 | B-T: R-R

Age: 20

School: Wake Forest

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.3

Massey was one of the most dominant relievers in the country during the 2023 season, his first with Wake Forest after transferring from Tulane. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound righthander posted a 2.59 ERA and struck out 47.2% of batters faced. He has elite fastball shape and generated a ludicrous 41% miss rate with the pitch, which averaged 94 mph and touched 97. The pitch plays up with 20 inches of induced vertical break, cutting life and deception that comes from a delivery that appears to release the ball from right behind his ear as late as possible. If the fastball wasn’t enough, Massey also has a late-breaking low-80s slider that looks like a plus pitch. He’ll rocket up draft boards if he pitches in a starting role and shows similar stuff in 2024.

Would love to pick Massey in the 2nd round or even with our comp pick.  He sounds like he could be a dominant reliever.  I doubt he could be ready this year, but good chance he could help next year.

[OsFanInOhio]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Would love to pick Massey in the 2nd round or even with our comp pick.  He sounds like he could be a dominant reliever.  I doubt he could be ready this year, but good chance he could help next year.

Massey is walking over 6 batters per 9 this year as a starter. Comp a seems a bit too high. I don’t recall seeing him in a single mock in the first or comp a the last few months. Also - do we really want to spend a first or second round pick on a reliever? We can sign relievers in the offseason. The draft should be looking for higher upside guys, especially in the top 2 or 3 rounds. 

[RZNJ]

7 hours ago, OsFanInOhio said:

Massey is walking over 6 batters per 9 this year as a starter. Comp a seems a bit too high. I don’t recall seeing him in a single mock in the first or comp a the last few months. Also - do we really want to spend a first or second round pick on a reliever? We can sign relievers in the offseason. The draft should be looking for higher upside guys, especially in the top 2 or 3 rounds. 

I have no problem going reliever at #22 if he profiles as a dominant reliever.  Sounds like Massey can be gotten later but I’d have no problem going for Brody Brecht with one of those first two picks.  Again, I prefer Gillen or Lindsey at #22.  Be great if we could get one at #22 and the other at #32.     
 

Who do you consider high upside that might be there at #32?

[OsFanInOhio]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I have no problem going reliever at #22 if he profiles as a dominant reliever.  Sounds like Massey can be gotten later but I’d have no problem going for Brody Brecht with one of those first two picks.  Again, I prefer Gillen or Lindsey at #22.  Be great if we could get one at #22 and the other at #32.     
 

Who do you consider high upside that might be there at #32?

I don’t want a pitcher in the top 3 rounds that doesn’t profile to at least have starter potential. Starting pitching is so expensive and valuable compared to relievers to acquire. 
 

as far as at 32, Carter Johnson is someone I’ve hoped we get there (some comps to Gunnar). There’s a couple other hs ss that if they drop would be interesting (gillen or Lindsay). Some lessor college bats amick, Dakota Jordan, janek. Maybe Mike sirota if we thought we could get him back on his last year performance over this year… hard to say not knowing who will be there. But there aren’t a lot of pitchers in that range, and they  are all starters (even Brecht is a starter just with lots of reliever risk). I couldn’t tell the last time someone was taken in the first three rounds and utilized from the get go as a reliever without trying them as starters first. 

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, OsFanInOhio said:

I don’t want a pitcher in the top 3 rounds that doesn’t profile to at least have starter potential. Starting pitching is so expensive and valuable compared to relievers to acquire. 
 

as far as at 32, Carter Johnson is someone I’ve hoped we get there (some comps to Gunnar). There’s a couple other hs ss that if they drop would be interesting (gillen or Lindsay). Some lessor college bats amick, Dakota Jordan, janek. Maybe Mike sirota if we thought we could get him back on his last year performance over this year… hard to say not knowing who will be there. But there aren’t a lot of pitchers in that range, and they  are all starters (even Brecht is a starter just with lots of reliever risk). I couldn’t tell the last time someone was taken in the first three rounds and utilized from the get go as a reliever without trying them as starters first. 

I don’t consider Amick and Janek high upside guys and Dakota Jordan’s most likely outcome is bust.   Carter Johnson doesn’t sound high upside either.  He gets the Gunnar comparison because he’s a SS from Alabama.  Closers cost money too.  We’re paying one on the downside of his career 13M.   Hader got 5/100.   We’re not talking about getting the next Jacob Webb.   Brecht has elite stuff.  If he can be taught to harness it better he could be an elite closer.   Seems that outcome is more likely for him than any of the position players, including Gillen or Lindsey becoming all-star level ML regulars.

Having said that, I’d be just fine rolling the dice on Gillen or Lindsey.

Edited June 3 by RZNJ

[OsFanInOhio]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t consider Amick and Janek high upside guys and Dakota Jordan’s most likely outcome is bust.   Carter Johnson doesn’t sound high upside either.  He gets the Gunnar comparison because he’s a SS from Alabama.  Closers cost money too.  We’re paying one on the downside of his career 13M.   Hader got 5/100.   We’re not talking about getting the next Jacob Webb.   Brecht has elite stuff.  If he can be taught to harness it better he could be an elite closer.   Seems that outcome is more likely for him than any of the position players, including Gillen or Lindsey becoming all-star level ML regulars.

Having said that, I’d be just fine rolling the dice on Gillen or Lindsey.

And hader, with the second biggest contract in reliever history, is 19th in average annual value just in current contracts (Diaz is 17th). There are 4 relief pitchers in the top 50 pitchers in annual salary (and that’s if you go by spotrac calling Kyle Hendricks a reliever, which he hasn’t been). Which tells you how mlb values starters vs relievers. If you have a chance to get even a  mid rotation starter, chances are it’s more valuable than very good high leverage relievers. They pitch a ton more innings that impacts the team more.  Relievers are volatile, and don’t exactly have longer shelf lives despite the lower inning workload. 
 

if you get a pitcher with good enough stuff that can be a starter, you can always fall back on them being relievers if they don’t make it as starters. Taking someone with no starter potential limits their upside. That’s not what I want with an early pick. I’ll take all the sharkey types in later rounds, but if I get Brecht, I want him in the minors trying to be a starter as long as they think he can be one. 

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, OsFanInOhio said:

And hader, with the second biggest contract in reliever history, is 19th in average annual value just in current contracts (Diaz is 17th). There are 4 relief pitchers in the top 50 pitchers in annual salary (and that’s if you go by spotrac calling Kyle Hendricks a reliever, which he hasn’t been). Which tells you how mlb values starters vs relievers. If you have a chance to get even a  mid rotation starter, chances are it’s more valuable than very good high leverage relievers. They pitch a ton more innings that impacts the team more.  Relievers are volatile, and don’t exactly have longer shelf lives despite the lower inning workload. 
 

if you get a pitcher with good enough stuff that can be a starter, you can always fall back on them being relievers if they don’t make it as starters. Taking someone with no starter potential limits their upside. That’s not what I want with an early pick. I’ll take all the sharkey types in later rounds, but if I get Brecht, I want him in the minors trying to be a starter as long as they think he can be one. 

If I get Brecht I’m getting him in the ML bullpen ASAP and pulling the Chris Sale/Garrett Crochet move later on if it’s warranted.

[OsFanInOhio]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

If I get Brecht I’m getting him in the ML bullpen ASAP and pulling the Chris Sale/Garrett Crochet move later on if it’s warranted.

Self edit - I was filtered on contract value not aav. There’s 5 or 6 relievers in the top 50 aav per year. But that’s still nothing, since it shows even back end #2 starters make more than all but the elite closers. 

as far as Brecht, I’d have him going up the minors as a starter just like baumeister  I want our minor leagues and FO looking to maximize long term value of our pipeline. If we need a closer or setup man for this year, I’d rather deal norby or someone to acquire it.

hell, we kind of already have Brecht at home  his name is chayce McDermott. I’d rather bring him up down the stretch this year than start a first round picks clock and waste a chance to develop him as a starter.

If we valued immediate bullpen help over developing starters, hall would’ve been a full time reliever 2 years ago rather than toiling away in Norfolk trying to get him command sorted. 

 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, OsFanInOhio said:

Self edit - I was filtered on contract value not aav. There’s 5 or 6 relievers in the top 50 aav per year. But that’s still nothing, since it shows even back end #2 starters make more than all but the elite closers. 

as far as Brecht, I’d have him going up the minors as a starter just like baumeister  I want our minor leagues and FO looking to maximize long term value of our pipeline. If we need a closer or setup man for this year, I’d rather deal norby or someone to acquire it.

hell, we kind of already have Brecht at home  his name is chayce McDermott. I’d rather bring him up down the stretch this year than start a first round picks clock and waste a chance to develop him as a starter.

If we valued immediate bullpen help over developing starters, hall would’ve been a full time reliever 2 years ago rather than toiling away in Norfolk trying to get him command sorted. 

 

Maybe Hall would be better off if we had done that.  He sure seemed to make a lot more progress as a reliever than he did the last 2-3 years in the minors.   I’m all for seeing what McDermott can do in the bullpen.   Still doesn’t mean I wouldn’t be interested in adding Brecht as well.   That’s not saying he’d even be ready to contribute this year but maybe.

I think Sale, Crochet, and others prove that you can fast track as a reliever and still go back to starting.   Anyway, I think I’ll just leave it at agree to disagree.  I’m looking for elite talent at #22 even if the guy profiles as a reliever.   I’ll take that over a Billy Amick type.

[OriolesMagic83]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe Hall would be better off if we had done that.  He sure seemed to make a lot more progress as a reliever than he did the last 2-3 years in the minors.   I’m all for seeing what McDermott can do in the bullpen.   Still doesn’t mean I wouldn’t be interested in adding Brecht as well.   That’s not saying he’d even be ready to contribute this year but maybe.

I think Sale, Crochet, and others prove that you can fast track as a reliever and still go back to starting.   Anyway, I think I’ll just leave it at agree to disagree.  I’m looking for elite talent at #22 even if the guy profiles as a reliever.   I’ll take that over a Billy Amick type.

Or a Grenier/DJ Stewart type.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Or a Grenier/DJ Stewart type.

Before Elias.  They generally haven’t missed on a 1st round or 1st round comp pick with the position players.   I trust they’ll make a good decision at #22 and #32.   Their track record in rounds 2-4, particularly on college position players and specifically the last three drafts is suspect.   

[OriolesMagic83]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Before Elias.  They generally haven’t missed on a 1st round or 1st round comp pick with the position players.   I trust they’ll make a good decision at #22 and #32.   Their track record in rounds 2-4, particularly on college position players and specifically the last three drafts is suspect.   

Wasn't Westburg a 2nd round draft pick?  It's a little early to judge last year's draft.

[OsFanInOhio]

7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Wasn't Westburg a 2nd round draft pick?  It's a little early to judge last year's draft.

Comp a. Like Gunnar, and beavers…

[Just Regular]

Borrowing this thread for College World Series, some reliever for LSU who averaged 1 inning/game this season has now pitched the 2nd through 6th innings as LSU and North Carolina play the finale of the Chapel Hill regional.

Elimination baseball is weird and fun.

[emmett16]

On 6/1/2024 at 1:47 PM, Jammer7 said:

You said it works out less often. I agree that is what the historical data said in a study many years ago. It is a reason to be cautious. I would add that Gunnar is an exception as well. There are a long list of 17 year talents who do not develop. For me, it has more to do with which team drafts them, than age at graduation.

Things are changing, I think. I read an article some months ago about development and it talked about the age factors of high school kids. It was in depth about age, confidence, physical maturation and all that. It talked about high level travel ball, year round development and training, and how modern data have helped evaluate the players. I believe it was the opinion of the author, so I suppose it is anecdotal. 

Many talented kids are 19 at graduation, and Florida and Texas have it quite often. When they go to college, they become draft eligible sophomores. There are many examples of players in that demographic finding success.

I have no idea where that article was, sorry. I read a lot about these kinds of things from many sources as a former youth coach and the parent of a 13 year old pitcher/player. I am sure someone will ask for a link. Take it for what it is. Not trying to be argumentative, or contrary. Just adding to the discussion, Greg. 

The re-class thing seems to almost be the norm now.  Mix in new scholarship/NIL rules coming next year and it will be an even more popular option.  It’s about to get crazy.  College programs offering 6 & 7 year figures for 4 year commitments.  We are entering the wild Wild West.  

Edited June 4 by emmett16