Is the 2024 team better than 2023’s?

[Frobby]

I’m starting to ask myself if this team is better than last year’s.  Of course, 1/5 of the way through the season may not be the right time to ask that question, as there are many twists and turns to come.  But I’m asking anyway.

Rotation - I have to say this rotation is better than last year’s.   You’ve got Burnes replacing Gibson, a large upgrade, with no disrespect to Gibson, who played an important role last year.  The 2024 version of Irvin looks better than the 2023 version.  Kremer’s ERA doesn’t show it yet, but his repertoire is better with his new splitter.  It looks like we’ll get more than 23.2 innings from John Means.  It’s a little early to say whether Bradish will stay healthy and be up to last year’s standards, but he looked good on Thursday.  We’re still awaiting the return of Wells and GRod, but we have the depth to weather their absence.   Last year the O’s starters were 11th in MLB in ERA at 4.14, 0.31 better than league average, and averaged 5.42 IP/start, 0.28 innings/start above league average.  This year they’re 6th in ERA at 3.28, 0.68 better than league average; and 3rd in IP/start at 5.66, 0.40 IP/start better than league average.  Advantage: 2024.   

Bullpen - Not as good as last year.  We didn’t have Felix Bautista for part of 2023, but while we did, he was the best reliever in MLB, was durable, and could throw 2 innings when needed.  Kimbrel has been brilliant at times, but he clearly can’t handle Felix’s workload and isn’t as consistent.  The rest of the pen looks decent but not brilliant.  The return of Cionel Perez helps and if our injured starters return that will push others to the pen.  Last year the O’s had the 5th best bullpen ERA in MLB at 3.55, 0.62 runs per game better than league average; their save rate was 61%, 16th in MLB and 1% below league average. This year they’re at 3.56 ERA, 11th in MLB, 0.37 runs/game better than league average; and the save rate is 61%, 20th in MLB and 2% below league average.  Advantage, 2023 (but not by as much as you might expect).

Offense - Though the bats have been a little quiet the last two series and several veterans are struggling, our maturing young players give us a better offense than last year.   Gunnar has taken it up a notch, Westburg is much better, Cowser has cooled lately but provided an early jolt, and Adley just hums along being Adley.  Last year the offense was 7th in runs per game (4.99, 0.37 above league average) and 6th in OPS+ (107); so far this year they are 4th in R/G (5.12, 0.79 above league average) and 2nd in OPS+ (119).  Advantage, 2024.

So, overall, the starting pitching and offense are noticeably better than last year’s, and the bullpen isn’t quite as good but not drastically down.  I’m going to say that the 2024 team could be better than 2023’s, though there’s a long way to go this season and a lot could happen.  

 

[Sports Guy]

Of course 

[Ripken]

Yep.  Rotation is better if it stays healthy (massive fingers crossed).  Grayson and Povich are around, too.

If/when some of Santander, Mullins, Hays, Kjerstad, Holliday, Mayo start producing the offense should look really good.

Replacing Bautista is impossible but I still want another power arm for the pen, though hopefully Wells replaces Baumann at some point.

[Bahama O's Fan]

8 minutes ago, Ripken said:

Yep.  Rotation is better if it stays healthy (massive fingers crossed).  Grayson and Povich are around, too.

If/when some of Santander, Mullins, Hays, Kjerstad, Holliday, Mayo start producing the offense should look really good.

Replacing Bautista is impossible but I still want another power arm for the pen, though hopefully Wells replaces Baumann at some point.

Maybe if all of those guys start hitting, we might not need a closer as much as we will be up by alot more going into the ninth.

[dzorange]

O’Hearn is another guy who should be mentioned. I think many of us thought that he was a guy who would regress this year and be usurped by one of the many young prospects. He and Mountcastle have provided much more beef in the middle of the lineup than expected. Especially with a Santander who has yet to get going. O’Hearn seems here to stay.

This team is better than last year’s team. That was something I thought heading into the season even with the Bradish injury. I think the rotation is just that much better and there’s more talent with the position players. But winning more games is another thing.

I took the under on wins before the season. Looks like I’m going to be wrong on that one. I don’t know if they’ll match last year’s win total, but I have more confidence in this team come playoff time.

Edited May 5 by dzorange

[ChuckS]

This year’s team is definitively better. That won’t necessarily convert into more wins than last year. They could win 98 or 99 games with a better run differential. It’s hard to win 101 games.

The upside is certainly there to win 105-110 games but with some random deviation and a shaky bullpen, who knows where we end up. 

The starting rotation is certainly looking like close to a best case scenario at the moment, especially considering our injuries. 

[Sports Guy]

The 2024 team isn’t even as good as it’s going to be

[Say O!]

Another factor — the 2024 team is in a better place to fortify over the course of the season, whether internally (Holliday, Mayo, Povich, McDermott) or externally (surely better than Flaherty, Fuji).

[Just Regular]

It is better due to natural bats growth.

Pitching I think in the aggregate Burnes and Kimbrel hold their own relative to Gibson and Bautista, even though there Burnes is the one doing almost all the work.

The Ryans both playing strong is going to give the organization a tough Coby Mayo decision this summer.    I believe Sigbot still regards Mayo's talent the more capable at the highest level of competition, but without a random act of injury it will involve reducing the role of a very productive player.

We should do better, hopefully much better, than Fujinami and Flaherty this July.

[owknows]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m starting to ask myself if this team is better than last year’s.  Of course, 1/5 of the way through the season may not be the right time to ask that question, as there are many twists and turns to come.  But I’m asking anyway.

Rotation - I have to say this rotation is better than last year’s.   You’ve got Burnes replacing Gibson, a large upgrade, with no disrespect to Gibson, who played an important role last year.  The 2024 version of Irvin looks better than the 2023 version.  Kremer’s ERA doesn’t show it yet, but his repertoire is better with his new splitter.  It looks like we’ll get more than 23.2 innings from John Means.  It’s a little early to say whether Bradish will stay healthy and be up to last year’s standards, but he looked good on Thursday.  We’re still awaiting the return of Wells and GRod, but we have the depth to weather their absence.   Last year the O’s starters were 11th in MLB in ERA at 4.14, 0.31 better than league average, and averaged 5.42 IP/start, 0.28 innings/start above league average.  This year they’re 6th in ERA at 3.28, 0.68 better than league average; and 3rd in IP/start at 5.66, 0.40 IP/start better than league average.  Advantage: 2024.   

Bullpen - Not as good as last year.  We didn’t have Felix Bautista for part of 2023, but while we did, he was the best reliever in MLB, was durable, and could throw 2 innings when needed.  Kimbrel has been brilliant at times, but he clearly can’t handle Felix’s workload and isn’t as consistent.  The rest of the pen looks decent but not brilliant.  The return of Cionel Perez helps and if our injured starters return that will push others to the pen.  Last year the O’s had the 5th best bullpen ERA in MLB at 3.55, 0.62 runs per game better than league average; their save rate was 61%, 16th in MLB and 1% below league average. This year they’re at 3.56 ERA, 11th in MLB, 0.37 runs/game better than league average; and the save rate is 61%, 20th in MLB and 2% below league average.  Advantage, 2023 (but not by as much as you might expect).

Offense - Though the bats have been a little quiet the last two series and several veterans are struggling, our maturing young players give us a better offense than last year.   Gunnar has taken it up a notch, Westburg is much better, Cowser has cooled lately but provided an early jolt, and Adley just hums along being Adley.  Last year the offense was 7th in runs per game (4.99, 0.37 above league average) and 6th in OPS+ (107); so far this year they are 4th in R/G (5.12, 0.79 above league average) and 2nd in OPS+ (119).  Advantage, 2024.

So, overall, the starting pitching and offense are noticeably better than last year’s, and the bullpen isn’t quite as good but not drastically down.  I’m going to say that the 2024 team could be better than 2023’s, though there’s a long way to go this season and a lot could happen.  

 

 

Nice analysis.

Would love to see you add a paragraph for defense as well.

 

 

[Orioles West]

It is early, and I love how this team competes as if they are building off of 2023.

Health is the obvious wildcard every season — so if health prevails —this starting rotation really has a chance to be special if they keep up this pace.

Bullpen performance may not be too far off of 2023, yet it still feels like the pen needs depth that may not be anywhere on the roster or on the farm currently.

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, owknows said:

 

Nice analysis.

Would love to see you add a paragraph for defense as well.

 

 

Thought about it, but it’s really hard to judge defense based on 33 games.  Overall I think it’s close to a wash.   What do you think?

[IPlayGM]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The 2024 team isn’t even as good as it’s going to be

This is important to me in discussing. Assuming health, which is a big assumption, this team in August should be better offensively and in the bullpen. 

[sportsfan8703]

Rotation better.  Bench/speed better. Defense better. L/R abilities better or the same. It is all about Bautista not being our closer. Better in every other aspect. 

[forphase1]

I'm surprised at the pitching, with Means and Bradish down I expected the starting pitching to falter,  and they stepped it up.  

I'm not surprised at the total offensive output, though where is coming from it a bit unexpected.  I thought some of the 2nd and 3rd year guys would improve as they mature,  and the 4 main ones are looking great.   I am a bit surprised we are still getting good production from Mateo and O'Hearn, but that's a bit offset by how poor Hays and Santander are/were playing.   The offensive is about where I expected,  but not exactly from who I expected from the 'vets'.

The bullpen is worse,  by a fair bit imo.  They're isn't many in there that I completely trust.  All seem to either put out a fire, or throw gas on the fire in any given night.   

Overall through the 1/5 point of the season I give a slight nod to the 2024 team,  due to the improvements by Adley/Gunnar/Westburg/Cowser, the starting pitching and O'Hearn and Mateo playing better than I thought.   This offsets the bullpen regression, and a rough/terrible start by Hays, Santander and Mullins to an extent. 

It also helps that this team doesn't have an Odor/Frazier type on the team that gets too much playing time.   That by itself almost puts 2024 over 2023!   

Edited May 5 by forphase1