The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, waroriole said:

Counter argument, we’re one Kremer rehab outing from being back at a 6 man rotation. 

Suarez is probably going to have to go back to the pen. We just don’t have enough arms there to make it through the season, especially with having very few relievers who can pitch more than 1 inning.

Even though Suarez has been the much better pitcher than Kremer, he gives you no length. He is the basic definition of a “5 and dive” pitcher. 

I guess they could try Kremer as a back end reliever given his strike out stuff and penchant for not being able to go through a lineup a third time. However, the downside to that is his susceptibility to the long ball.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

This is Crochet's first full year back from TJS after 12 IP last year. You'd have to think if you are trading for him, it's not for this year, but next year as he's likely only got a few more starts left him if he's handled responsibly, which he should be, coming back from TJS. He's under control through the 2026 season and there is value in that even though he's arb eligible and will likely get a nice bump in salary.

Yeah, that's what I was afraid of.  I'm sure Elias will kick the tires.  WS will be asking for package headed by one of Holliday, Mayo or Basallo.  Maybe price will come down in the offseason.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, OriolesMagic83 said:

Yeah, that's what I was afraid of.  I'm sure Elias will kick the tires.  WS will be asking for package headed by one of Holliday, Mayo or Basallo.  Maybe price will come down in the offseason.

We don’t have the luxury of waiting until the offseason. We are in serious World Series this season.

As much as I would hate to surrender one of our top tier prospects, that’s most likely the cost of doing business. But if we have to give up one, I am getting the best starter/pitcher available on the market. If that’s Crochet than so be it.

IMO we just can’t afford to punt on this season if we are serious about winning championships. We don’t have any guarantees about what future seasons will bring. I further injuries and regressions are real possibilities in the future. This year we are amongst the best teams in the sport. An addition of a pitcher like Crochet and a shutdown back end reliever makes us best in sport IMO.

[Greg Pappas]

This trade deadline will be quite interesting, for several reasons. But one that comes to mind is witnessing how much stock Elias puts on this season versus the coming seasons.  One example: With Santander a FA at year's end, it's possible he is finishing his Orioles career this season and leaving RF unfilled.  My first thought is that Kjerstad will take that spot, even if his defense is less than desired.  But Kjerstad can't take over in RF if he's traded.  I think Kjerstad will be a perennial .850+ OPS hitter and has a lot of value, especially with six years of control remaining.  So, his inclusion in any deal would be a significant sacrifice and one I'm not sure Elias is willing to make, unless the player returning also had years of control remaining.  Mason Miller has five years of control remaining, though I have my doubts that Elias would go there.  Yet, at some point we're going to have to trade a couple of positional players. 

There are so many scenarios and so many considerations... it's both fascinating and exciting watching it all unfold.

Edited June 16 by Greg Pappas

[Greg Pappas]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

We don’t have the luxury of waiting until the offseason. We are in serious World Series this season.

As much as I would hate to surrender one of our top tier prospects, that’s most likely the cost of doing business. But if we have to give up one, I am getting the best starter/pitcher available on the market. If that’s Crochet than so be it.

IMO we just can’t afford to punt on this season if we are serious about winning championships. We don’t have any guarantees about what future seasons will bring. I further injuries and regressions are real possibilities in the future. This year we are amongst the best teams in the sport. An addition of a pitcher like Crochet and a shutdown back end reliever makes us best in sport IMO.

I understand, but Crochet is going to run into an innings limit later this season.  He would then have to go to the pen this season.   We do need help, no doubt about it.  It will be very interesting to see how Elias handles who he targets and what he's willing to deal away.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Greg Pappas said:

I understand, but Crochet is going to run into an innings limit later this season.  He would then have to go to the pen this season.   We do need help, no doubt about it.  It will be very interesting to see how Elias handles who he targets and what he's willing to deal away.

He doesn't have to.

But yea, whomever is running him out there is going to decide to.

[Bahama O's Fan]

27 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think a RH bat is all we need offensively. I’d look at JD Martinez. 

I wanted him in the offseason. 

[waroriole]

40 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

We don’t have the luxury of waiting until the offseason. We are in serious World Series this season.

As much as I would hate to surrender one of our top tier prospects, that’s most likely the cost of doing business. But if we have to give up one, I am getting the best starter/pitcher available on the market. If that’s Crochet than so be it.

IMO we just can’t afford to punt on this season if we are serious about winning championships. We don’t have any guarantees about what future seasons will bring. I further injuries and regressions are real possibilities in the future. This year we are amongst the best teams in the sport. An addition of a pitcher like Crochet and a shutdown back end reliever makes us best in sport IMO.

Not that I know anything about you personally, but I always wonder what the Venn diagram would look like with the categories of”Win Now” and “Older Fan.”

[Tryptamine]

16 hours ago, casadeozo said:

Let’s be clear. He’s pitching like an ace THIS YEAR.

this is his first year in mlb and he was considered a back end starter when he was signed.  No one rational would say a 2.5 month performance in your first year in MLB requires the number one prospect in baseball PLUS MORE!

Respectfully it’s lunacy.

Not speaking specifically to Holliday, but it's not exactly like Shota is out there being a fluke. His 1.89 ERA puts him 3rd in baseball amongst all qualified starters. His xERA of 3.05 puts him at 11th. His 2.76 FIP also puts him at 11th. His 2.2 fWAR puts him in 10th. His 1.3 BB/9 is 3rd in baseball and while his K rate isn't huge it's still a solid 9.24 K/9 which is 24th. So the 1.89 ERA isn't going to last, but even if he regresses his peripherals are extremely good. His contract is also extremely team friendly and significantly increases his trade value.

2024: 9M

2025: 13M

He then has a team option to pick up '26, '27 and '28 at $20M, $20M and $17M. If the team declines that option, Shota has a 2026 player option at $15M. So if he keeps pitching like an ace you have him at 4/70. If he falls apart then you only have him for 2/28. 

 

Also, what he was viewed as and what he has become after being worked with to become more aggressive with his pitches becomes less and less relevant with every pitch he throws. Would it require specifically Holliday? I don't know, but it would take a huge package.   

[Bemorewins]

53 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I understand, but Crochet is going to run into an innings limit later this season.  He would then have to go to the pen this season.   We do need help, no doubt about it.  It will be very interesting to see how Elias handles who he targets and what he's willing to deal away.

It’s not Crochet or bust. But we do need a very good #2/3 AND a shutdown reliever.

[Bemorewins]

27 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Not that I know anything about you personally, but I always wonder what the Venn diagram would look like with the categories of”Win Now” and “Older Fan.”

LOL Yes I have waited all my life and attended hundreds of games. (Maybe a thousand by this point?)

Yes I want to attend a World Series game at Camden Yards. I have been at 4 out of the 5 Ravens AFC championship games. Can I get one for the O’s? lol

It is likely never going to be this good again in my lifetime. So no, I am not interested in just having a solid winning team who never crosses the championship threshold. The banners are forever! 

When I went to HOU last year and saw all their recent banners in the stadium, I did get a little jealous..lol But I said to myself, that will be us one day. That is my hope as a longtime suffering fan.

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

We don’t have the luxury of waiting until the offseason. We are in serious World Series this season.

As much as I would hate to surrender one of our top tier prospects, that’s most likely the cost of doing business. But if we have to give up one, I am getting the best starter/pitcher available on the market. If that’s Crochet than so be it.

IMO we just can’t afford to punt on this season if we are serious about winning championships. We don’t have any guarantees about what future seasons will bring. I further injuries and regressions are real possibilities in the future. This year we are amongst the best teams in the sport. An addition of a pitcher like Crochet and a shutdown back end reliever makes us best in sport IMO.

Who says were punting, Look with all do respect Crochet is a good young pitcher  thats having a great year, has 2+ years of team control, might be on an innings limit, not saying they wont make a trade for him, but would be shocked at best if one of our top 3 were involved 

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Who says were punting, Look with all do respect Crochet is a good young pitcher  thats having a great year, has 2+ years of team control, might be on an innings limit, not saying they wont make a trade for him, but would be shocked at best if one of our top 3 were involved 

I’ve stated previously that it is not Crochet or bust for me. We just need a comparable talent to Bradish in order to line up in a game 2 or 3 in n order to compete with the Yankees, Phillies, or Dodgers and not be at a talent/competitive disadvantage. Those teams all have at least 2 legit ace pitchers. Right now we have one and another possible one.

Now to you opinion about surrendering any of our top 3. I don’t think there is much of anyway that we trade Holliday our number 1 (and the #1 prospect in the game). However, if we were to say resign Santander to a 3 year deal, that makes loosing one of Kjerstad, Basallo, Mayo palpable. While adding a meaningful/impact piece to our team.

”Punting” would be doing some come of minor move (like last year) while continuing to hedge for the future. IMO the time for hedging has passed and Elias needs to adapt to the current situation and become a little more aggressive and decisive.

[Safelykept]

44 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I’ve stated previously that it is not Crochet or bust for me. We just need a comparable talent to Bradish in order to line up in a game 2 or 3 in n order to compete with the Yankees, Phillies, or Dodgers and not be at a talent/competitive disadvantage. Those teams all have at least 2 legit ace pitchers. Right now we have one and another possible one.

Now to you opinion about surrendering any of our top 3. I don’t think there is much of anyway that we trade Holliday our number 1 (and the #1 prospect in the game). However, if we were to say resign Santander to a 3 year deal, that makes loosing one of Kjerstad, Basallo, Mayo palpable. While adding a meaningful/impact piece to our team.

”Punting” would be doing some come of minor move (like last year) while continuing to hedge for the future. IMO the time for hedging has passed and Elias needs to adapt to the current situation and become a little more aggressive and decisive.

Doubt thier going to extend Santander to a 3 year deal and Kjerstad is not a top 3 Again they wont be trading any of those for pitching

[Bemorewins]

21 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Doubt thier going to extend Santander to a 3 year deal and Kjerstad is not a top 3 Again they wont be trading any of those for pitching

I know Kjerstad is our fourth rated prospect. 

I wouldn’t be so dismissive about resigning Santander. He certainly will be affordable and it won’t need to be a super longterm contract.  And most of all, he produces consistently.