Trevor Rogers 2024

[LookitsPuck]

7 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

Since Trevor Rogers been demoted to Norfolk, my approach is wait until ST arrival .  Then I will check in on him then . It’s not like we tossed him overboard, he has time to make adjustments . 

Think the worry is more about whether adjustments matter when every single one of your pitches has a negative/0 run value and has been the case since 2021 and additionally his average velocity has dipped from 94-95 in 2021/2022, 92-93 in 2023, and 92 in 2024 and even down to 90 in August. 

I reckon the O's are hoping that the velocity drop was due to his injury history in 2023 and lingered into 2024 and he now has a dead arm in the backend of 2024 and that with a proper offseason and mechanical tweaks can regain it, but that is a hell of a lot to bank on for a guy who looks a lot like Cole Irvin but without the command.

Who would you put money on having a better 2025-2026: Cole Irvin or Trevor Rogers? That's a tough one for me. On the one hand, Irvin allows more homers (1.3 HR/9 vs. 0.9), but has a much better walk rate (2.1 vs. 3.6). I think the question entirely comes down to this:

Is Trevor Rogers the guy with a 7.0 SO/9 and a 10.1 H/9 and a 4.1 BB/9 from 2024? Or do the O's think he can be like the glimmer he showed in 2023 (9.5 SO/9, 8.0 H/9, 3.0 BB/9). That's a toughie for me.

As long as the O's don't pencil him into the rotation in the offseason, I'm OK with him being in the system. At some point in 2025 he'll reach the 5 year service time marker, so the MiLB options he has aren't really going to matter. Though that won't be an issue to start the season.

OK, to bring it all home:

• The O's can't give a rotation spot to Rogers to start 2025, he should be considered depth with the potential to crack the rotation if he regained some semblance of form
• The O's need to acquire 2 arms via free agency for the rotation to replace Burnes and Bradish. The rotation next year is currently: Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer with Suarez, Irvin, and Rogers as options. That isn't a playoff caliber rotation no matter how you piece it together. Ideally you get a Top or 2nd tier arm and another 2nd/3rd tier arm, then that's doable.

If Elias goes into spring training with Rogers penciled into the rotation, I really have to question Rubenstein and/or Elias at that point. 

[Allan Bryant]

11 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Think the worry is more about whether adjustments matter when every single one of your pitches has a negative/0 run value and has been the case since 2021 and additionally his average velocity has dipped from 94-95 in 2021/2022, 92-93 in 2023, and 92 in 2024 and even down to 90 in August. 

I reckon the O's are hoping that the velocity drop was due to his injury history in 2023 and lingered into 2024 and he now has a dead arm in the backend of 2024 and that with a proper offseason and mechanical tweaks can regain it, but that is a hell of a lot to bank on for a guy who looks a lot like Cole Irvin but without the command.

Who would you put money on having a better 2025-2026: Cole Irvin or Trevor Rogers? That's a tough one for me. On the one hand, Irvin allows more homers (1.3 HR/9 vs. 0.9), but has a much better walk rate (2.1 vs. 3.6). I think the question entirely comes down to this:

Is Trevor Rogers the guy with a 7.0 SO/9 and a 10.1 H/9 and a 4.1 BB/9 from 2024? Or do the O's think he can be like the glimmer he showed in 2023 (9.5 SO/9, 8.0 H/9, 3.0 BB/9). That's a toughie for me.

As long as the O's don't pencil him into the rotation in the offseason, I'm OK with him being in the system. At some point in 2025 he'll reach the 5 year service time marker, so the MiLB options he has aren't really going to matter. Though that won't be an issue to start the season.

OK, to bring it all home:

• The O's can't give a rotation spot to Rogers to start 2025, he should be considered depth with the potential to crack the rotation if he regained some semblance of form
• The O's need to acquire 2 arms via free agency for the rotation to replace Burnes and Bradish. The rotation next year is currently: Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer with Suarez, Irvin, and Rogers as options. That isn't a playoff caliber rotation no matter how you piece it together. Ideally you get a Top or 2nd tier arm and another 2nd/3rd tier arm, then that's doable.

If Elias goes into spring training with Rogers penciled into the rotation, I really have to question Rubenstein and/or Elias at that point. 

Nice assessment and analysis on Rogers . I can’t answer your concerns about his velocity dropping . You mentioned injury related, I think it’s possible . I wonder if it’s mechanical issues as well . I don’t think Ruby & Elias should count on him as our starter for next season’s rotation either . I would view him as our second Cole Irvin. They both should start at Norfolk next season and used ‘break the glass in case of emergency’ starters .  I agree with you that next year’s rotation is below standards , meaning that at least two , ideally three or four new free agent starters and one or two free agent bullpen pitchers . They need to stock up and fortify our pitching depth . I rather have too many pitching options than just bare minimum depth .

[ScGO's]

2 hours ago, Spakman said:

And that’s what trade deadline deals are for. That’s why you overpay at the trade deadline. I would love to know what they think they can fix not just in a year or two but this year what did they think they could do to make this guy good. I just don’t see any plus pitches to work with.

I agree on his pitch repetoire. Only Baseball Metric that seems to stand out is his extension, which is actually surprising with his short stride and east/west movements through the delivery. Again, its bugs me that we couldnt use Norby/Stowers to get us a pitcher that we could use this year. However, if Rogers comes out next year retooled and revamped and ends up being a dawg, great, Elias is a genius again. If Norby and Stowers flake, and Rogers never becomes anything, in a couple years it will be "whatever". If Norby ends up an All Star and Stowers becomes a serviceable starter, AND Rogers is a dud, this could be one of the worst deals since Glen Davis. But again, time will tell

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

Think the worry is more about whether adjustments matter when every single one of your pitches has a negative/0 run value and has been the case since 2021 and additionally his average velocity has dipped from 94-95 in 2021/2022, 92-93 in 2023, and 92 in 2024 and even down to 90 in August. 

I reckon the O's are hoping that the velocity drop was due to his injury history in 2023 and lingered into 2024 and he now has a dead arm in the backend of 2024 and that with a proper offseason and mechanical tweaks can regain it, but that is a hell of a lot to bank on for a guy who looks a lot like Cole Irvin but without the command.

Who would you put money on having a better 2025-2026: Cole Irvin or Trevor Rogers? That's a tough one for me. On the one hand, Irvin allows more homers (1.3 HR/9 vs. 0.9), but has a much better walk rate (2.1 vs. 3.6). I think the question entirely comes down to this:

Is Trevor Rogers the guy with a 7.0 SO/9 and a 10.1 H/9 and a 4.1 BB/9 from 2024? Or do the O's think he can be like the glimmer he showed in 2023 (9.5 SO/9, 8.0 H/9, 3.0 BB/9). That's a toughie for me.

As long as the O's don't pencil him into the rotation in the offseason, I'm OK with him being in the system. At some point in 2025 he'll reach the 5 year service time marker, so the MiLB options he has aren't really going to matter. Though that won't be an issue to start the season.

OK, to bring it all home:

• The O's can't give a rotation spot to Rogers to start 2025, he should be considered depth with the potential to crack the rotation if he regained some semblance of form
• The O's need to acquire 2 arms via free agency for the rotation to replace Burnes and Bradish. The rotation next year is currently: Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer with Suarez, Irvin, and Rogers as options. That isn't a playoff caliber rotation no matter how you piece it together. Ideally you get a Top or 2nd tier arm and another 2nd/3rd tier arm, then that's doable.

If Elias goes into spring training with Rogers penciled into the rotation, I really have to question Rubenstein and/or Elias at that point. 

Could he be penciled in as the top option on a short leash with multiple other options? 

Bradish should be coming back so why does he need to be replaced? Are you assuming his career is already over?

Eflin and Grayson are a solid top two. One more #1-3 type would be nice to go with Kremer and one of Suarez/Rogers/Irvin/Povich. McDermott and Wells could also be in the mix along with Brandon Young. I don't see the need for two TOR guys with Bradish likely back. If that is going to be your benchmark for the offseason, might as well just join the fire Elias bandwagon now. 

If there are injuries or Bradish has a setback, reevaluate in July.

[ChuckS]

24 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Could he be penciled in as the top option on a short leash with multiple other options? 

Bradish should be coming back so why does he need to be replaced? Are you assuming his career is already over?

Eflin and Grayson are a solid top two. One more #1-3 type would be nice to go with Kremer and one of Suarez/Rogers/Irvin/Povich. McDermott and Wells could also be in the mix along with Brandon Young. I don't see the need for two TOR guys with Bradish likely back. If that is going to be your benchmark for the offseason, might as well just join the fire Elias bandwagon now. 

If there are injuries or Bradish has a setback, reevaluate in July.

Are you talking about 2025 or 2026 for Bradish?

With 12-18 months being the normal recovery time, and the Orioles being extra cautious with pitchers and injuries, I don't see how we can project him back in July.  

September would be an average outcome for me, with July being about as equally possible as him not pitching at all next year. 

The FO plan for starting pitching in 2025 should not be counting on Bradish, in any way, shape, or form.  If he comes back at some point, that's just gravy. 

Edited September 5 by ChuckS

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Are you talking about 2025 or 2026 for Bradish?

With 12-18 months being the normal recovery time, and the Orioles being extra cautious with pitchers and injuries, I don't see how we can project him back in July.  

September would be an average outcome for me, with July being about as equally possible as him not pitching at all next year. 

The FO plan for starting pitching in 2025 should not be counting on Bradish, in any way, shape, or form.  If he comes back at some point, that's just gravy. 

2025. We already got our Burnes replacement in Eflin.  If we got one more decent arm that would give us a credible top three with plenty of depth for the last two spots. I doubt we are going to push Kremer out of the rotation and/or block the 5th spot to try out prospects and Rogers/Irvin types. There is a middle ground between "counting on" Bradish and completely ignoring the possibility of a TOR arm coming back for the playoffs. Keep in mind as well, it is very difficult to find older veterans who are both high quality and willing to sign for 1-2 years.

[LookitsPuck]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

2025. We already got our Burnes replacement in Eflin.  If we got one more decent arm that would give us a credible top three with plenty of depth for the last two spots. I doubt we are going to push Kremer out of the rotation and/or block the 5th spot to try out prospects and Rogers/Irvin types. There is a middle ground between "counting on" Bradish and completely ignoring the possibility of a TOR arm coming back for the playoffs. Keep in mind as well, it is very difficult to find older veterans who are both high quality and willing to sign for 1-2 years.

Bradish isn't going to pitch in 2025. He had surgery in the middle of June. 

[glenn__davis]

20 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Bradish isn't going to pitch in 2025. He had surgery in the middle of June. 

That doesn't mean he's definitively out for all of next year.  I'd think August/September is not completely unrealistic timeline, but that will depend on his recovery.

I do fully agree that they should go into the season expecting anything from him.

[glenn__davis]

Just now, glenn__davis said:

That doesn't mean he's definitively out for all of next year.  I'd think August/September is not completely unrealistic timeline, but that will depend on his recovery.

I do fully agree that they should go into the season expecting anything from him.

Sorry - they should NOT go into the season expecting anything from him.

[Aristotelian]

26 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Bradish isn't going to pitch in 2025. He had surgery in the middle of June. 

12 months is the baseline. Could take longer, but doesn't have to. He could go 14 months and still come back in August. We should have a better idea around the trade deadline.

Either way, I don't see us spending dollars or prospects on two TOR types. 

[theobird]

I would say that you will have Eflin, Grayson, Kremer and Povich penciled in. I’m pretty high on Povich admittedly. Adding one more “good” (1-3) starter should be the goal. Then depth. Suarez, Roger’s, Irvin, McDermott, Young, etc. 

To me the focus beyond the additional starter needs to be on bullpen reconstruction. Fingers crossed on the Mountain coming back and being that same guy. That would go a long way for us. Still, I think we need to add two middle to late inning guys to put out the bullpen fire. 

[camdencrush]

Would be shocked to see them rush Bradish back next year. 

[wildcard]

I think  Eflin, GRod and Suarez project to be in the rotation next year.

Kremer's 4.50 ERA does not guarantee him a starting role IMO.

Kremer, Rogers, Povich, McDermott and Young would go into ST fighting for 2 rotation spots. They all have options and can begin the season in the minors if they do not make the team.

I am not against adding a better starter but I would not count on it.

Bradish and Wells  might be back for the 2025 playoffs.

Edited September 5 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think  Eflin, GRod and Suarez project to be in the rotation next year.

Kremer's 4.50 ERA does not guarantee him a starting role IMO.

Kremer, Rogers, Povich, McDermott and Young would go into ST fighting for 2 rotation spots. They all have options and can begin the season in the minors if they do not make the team.

I am not against adding a better starter but I would not count on it.

Bradish and Wells  might be back for the 2025 playoffs.

Kremer is more of a guarantee than Suarez is

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Kremer is more of a guarantee than Suarez is

It's hard to take Suarez out of the rotation when his results are about as good as GRod.   Kremer can't say that.