The injuries "excuse."

[EddeeEddee]

I'm somewhere in the middle because, as massively banged up as the starting pitching has been, the starting pitching right now, other than Corbin and Rogers, has been decent lately.  

The bullpen, however, looked like a problem early on despite any injuries.  

Sure, the lineup has suffered from Westburg's absence, and maybe Kjerstad's too, but really at least half the bats are just in a rotten slump right now.  

[Jagwar]

Great poll @Moose Milligan

Having a starting rotation on the IL of Bradish, Means, Wells, GRod, and Efflin is the clincher for me. At their best that is a rotation almost any teams would love to have. Throw in Bautista, Coulombe and Webb, and that is a huge pitching hole that is nigh impossible to fill. 

[Orioles1954]

I blame it on banning OnlyOneOriole…

[Spakman]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

Great poll @Moose Milligan

Having a starting rotation on the IL of Bradish, Means, Wells, GRod, and Efflin is the clincher for me. At their best that is a rotation almost any teams would love to have. Throw in Bautista, Coulombe and Webb, and that is a huge pitching hole that is nigh impossible to fill. 

Where is the option for the Orioles can’t hit so it doesn’t matter what injuries they have.

[Jagwar]

6 minutes ago, Spakman said:

Where is the option for the Orioles can’t hit so it doesn’t matter what injuries they have.

So much more pressure on a lineup when the pitching staff is giving up almost 5 runs a game. You really need a prolific offense to overcome the monthly trend. 

ERA/WHIP by month

Mar/Apr 3.68/1.17

May 2.68/1.11

Jun 3.73/1.22

Jul 4.97/1.38

Aug 4.93/1.34

 

[Spakman]

7 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

So much more pressure on a lineup when the pitching staff is giving up almost 5 runs a game. You really need a prolific offense to overcome the monthly trend. 

ERA/WHIP by month

Mar/Apr 3.68/1.17

May 2.68/1.11

Jun 3.73/1.22

Jul 4.97/1.38

Aug 4.93/1.34

 

Of course, injuries have really hurt the pitching staff a lot. But the hitting has been abysmal.

[forphase1]

I'm in the middle, but leaning towards the injuries are, at least in part, excuses.  Here is my logic.

1) Yes, SOME of the injuries were unforeseen.  We did not know that GRod, Webb, Coulombe, Westburg were going to be injuried.  However, we DID know that Means was returning from TJ, Bradish was hurt way before the season started, Bautista was out all year and Wells is always injured.  So while some of it is a valid 'we are down because of injuries' much of it SHOULD have been expected and should have been better planned for.  It's hard to use injuries as excuses when they were either already known (Bradish, Bautista) or is was reasonable to expect them (Wells, Means).  

2) Yes, the pitching staff has been hurt.  But that doesn't explain Adley disappearing, Gunnar being an MVP candidate in the first half and just decent so far in the 2nd, Mountcastle and O'Hearn both being powerless lately, Mullins being meh, etc.  I know that our overall runs per game is still decent, but if over 4 games you score 3, 3, 9 and 3 runs, sure you are averaging 4.5 runs a game, but you likely went 1-3.  While I don't believe in 'clutch' per se, our average with RISP is pitiful lately.  We haven't been getting on base very much, and when we DO get guys on base and in scoring position they just die out there as we don't get them home.  The good pitching performances we've got out of what is left of our starting pitching has been let down by the hitting and the bullpen.

3) The injuries really shouldn't have impacted the defense, other than Holliday may still be in the minors if Westburg/Mateo weren't hurt.  The errors by Gunnar and Urias likely still would have happened as would have the times the outfield didn't do their part.  

4)Bullpen has been pathetic, and while that's largely on the players, Elias is partly to blame as he put this bullpen together with questionable signings (Kimbrel to be the closer, etc) and trades that to this point haven't looked good other than Mr. Gopher ball, Seranthony.  Hyde also burns through too many players, running through the PB arms like a kids eating candy after Halloween.  Sure, some of this can be blamed on the injuries to Webb, Coulombe and Wells.  But some is the overall roster construction and overuse.  

End of story the 'blame' for us faltering goes way beyond just the injuries.  Much of why we are around .500 over the past few months instead of playing as we were before is due to the bats slowing down and some poor roster construction/management.  Injuries are certainly A factor, but not close to being the whole story.  

[Spakman]

I talk @&$! about the offense and then they come through. I’ll take it. That  was a lot of potatoes.

[kidrock]

10 hours ago, AdamK said:

The injuries to pitchers feels so rampant that I worry our pitching lab (or whatever) approach is contributing to it. 

I think this is excessive and I don't blame Elias, but I also hope the adjustments or optimizations we're asking pitchers to make isn't introducing mechanics that lead to injury.

I definitely think there is a possibility that our pitching lab is contributing to it.  The focus on spin rates especially.

[allquixotic]

Mostly the way I feel is:

• The number of injuries (and to which players they've occurred) has been pretty unlucky, but almost every MLB team has had plenty of injuries this year. That's probably why no single team is lighting the ground on fire with their win %. The best team is 76-52 LAD, 24 games above .500, and that record is only 0.5 games ahead of the NYY. Nobody's running away with, like, 82+ wins already like they do some years.
• Our mid-season trades have not turned out well, for the most part. We may have added depth slightly with the trades, but none of the guys we acquired are amazing. This is partly Elias' fault and partly on those players (and probably our coaches share a portion of the blame).
• I think, on the whole, our acquisitions in the offseason and in the midseason have underperformed expectations, except for Burnes. I'm not sure how you reconcile Burnes' great first half - which makes the trade look good - with his fall from grace since, which raises questions about the player, trainers and coaches.
• Our MiL call-ups this year have also, on the whole, underperformed. Holliday drags down the overall callup grade quite a lot for me, since he's now in stint #2 in the bigs and is showing us that the "real" Jackson Holliday may not be a very special player after all. At least, not at the age of 20. Who knows if that'll change in a year or three.
• Our returning MLB core from last year has been, as one might expect, up and down. More good than bad in April, May and June; a lot of struggle in July and August, even from the ones who are healthy.

Overriding all of these points, I think, is just the sheer fact that we have an absolutely nails starting rotation on the IL right now. If they're all healthy, most MLB clubs would gladly acquire a rotation of Bradish, Eflin, Means, Rodriguez and Wells, with Bautista as a closer. Based on past performance, you would expect that rotation to be rather good. But we don't have ANY of those guys right now.

I'm leaning toward "Faction 1" from the OP (it's the injuries), but I think there's some blame to go around with the training and coaches that is influencing this extended team-wide slump (of the healthy players). And I also wonder whether better conditioning would be able to prevent some of these injuries.

[RarityFlaherty]

The only thing I see to blame Elias for is the bullpen. Would have liked for them to do more in the offseason knowing that Bautista was going to be out. And even then it didn’t really hurt us in the first half of the year. At the trade deadline, I would have liked for us to get Tanner Scott from the Marlins, instead of Trevor Rogers, but I think they traded for Rogers more for next year. The other trade deadline moves were fine, we really just needed to also get a legitimate closer once we saw Kimbrel starting to fall off. But, we still aren’t out of it, and should get Coloumbe back before the playoffs. If we see either Kimbrel or Dominguez bounce back, we could at least be in position to play matchups and have a closer by committee situation to mask the bullpen’s weaknesses. 

[sportsfan8703]

6 dudes that have started games for us this season are on the IL. Including a #1, #2, #2, and #3 SP.  

3 RP that would be 3/4 of the backend of our bullpen. Arguably, the best closer in MLB and our 2 most trusted arms this year outside of Cano.

So it’s not just quantity, but the quality. Geez. 

That’s not even mentioning Westburg and Mateo. Westburg could’ve been an All Star. Mateo is a glue guy with above average defense at 2B. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

6 dudes that have started games for us this season are on the IL. Including a #1, #2, #2, and #3 SP.  

3 RP that would be 3/4 of the backend of our bullpen. Arguably, the best closer in MLB and our 2 most trusted arms this year outside of Cano.

So it’s not just quantity, but the quality. Geez. 

That’s not even mentioning Westburg and Mateo. Westburg could’ve been an All Star. Mateo is a glue guy with above average defense at 2B. 

[btdart20]

9 hours ago, kidrock said:

I definitely think there is a possibility that our pitching lab is contributing to it.  The focus on spin rates especially.

Is it different than what other teams or private pitch labs (like Driveline) do?  If not, then the injury aren't specific to our lab but to industry trends.

[btdart20]

How many SPs should a team go into the season with?  8?  10?  12?  How many missed IPs/injuries should be projected?

Do you plan for IP coverage and/or quality IP coverage?  Meaning how many top 2-3 types are needed?  We had 2 (Burnes and Grayson) with a dice roll in Bradish and traded for Eflin.  Maybe even Kremer falls in here too (at least he did the last 2 years).