Should Rubenstein relieve Mike Elias of his duties?

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Eflin was the win now move.

Anyway, why do you need a 5th starter in the playoffs? We would have needed someone better than one of Burnes, Grayson, Eflin, and Suarez/Kremer. You might not even need more than three if you go short rest.

At the time we needed a 5th starter to stabilize the rotation.   Suarez certainly helped by getting back on track but Rogers was a total failure they didn’t even feel comfortable keeping on the 26 man roster.   The problem wasn’t trading Norby and Stowers.   The problem is who they were traded for.  Just a bad trade.

[LookitsPuck]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Eflin was the win now move.

Anyway, why do you need a 5th starter in the playoffs? We would have needed someone better than one of Burnes, Grayson, Eflin, and Suarez/Kremer. You might not even need more than three if you go short rest.

At the time Suarez and Kremer were pitching very poorly. Povich was as well. Irvin was DFAd.

At that point they had Burnes, Grayson, Eflin. And that’s about it. 

The point is you still had 2 months to go in the season with an awful bullpen and starters that couldn’t go deep and not much depth in regards to starters. Picking up somebody for next year to be in the rotation with the advanced stats he had really was so weird to me and a bunch of others.

And what happened shortly thereafter? Grayson hurt, Chayce McDermott out for the season. Making it even more blindingly obvious that hope isn’t a strategy.

Edited August 30 by LookitsPuck

[Tony-OH]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Stuff isn’t the only reason to rate a pitcher. 

Until this season, Fedde had never had close to the success Rogers had at this level.

Rogers was also pitching very well when the Os got him.

This is all reactionary bs. There is no logic being used. No intelligence. No history. Just a few starts, which weren’t as bad as the numbers say.  
 

It’s so maddening how people still can’t figure out how small sample sizes mean nothing but yet they get fooled by them ALL THE TIME.

I sure hope you weren't referring to me. 

So Rogers was pitching good before he got here, huh?

Here's his statcast percentiles:

In his last 10 starts with the Marlins he had a nice 3.48 ERA, but his 4.37 FIP and .268 BABIP, and his 61% strike rate and 8% swinging strike rate all suggest he was getting lucky. Add in that velocity on his fastball had decreased over this span and there were major warning signs that he was going to be a good buy for this year.

As I've said, I had no problem trading Norby and Stowers, but would have preferred them to be moved for a better starter. I think this highlights how hard it is to trade hitting prospects alone for good starting pitching. Both Burnes and Eflin cost pitching too.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

None of the advanced stats backed up that the smoke and mirrors Rogers was throwing was sustainable. The changes made while out of the country, and the advanced stats for Fedde show what he was/is doing is sustainable (at least for this year). Fedde also wasn’t a rental, so this is a really glaring misstep by Elias. If he acquired another SP and Rogers? I wouldn’t have been whining about it so much. But he rolled the dice on a broken pitcher this year for what might never come next year. That’s fine to do in the middle of a rebuild, but woefully irresponsible in the middle of a pennant chase.

Look at the other clubs pickups: Kikuchi, Flaherty, Fedde. And then there’s Rogers. Yeah, Eflin was a big hit, but we can also say that he missed on Rogers.

You keep saying it’s irresponsible to do in a pennant race but it sounds dumber every time you say it.

As I said, I would like to know what else we could have had.  Personally, if we could have had another BP arm, even a rental, for this season that would have been my preference.

But we have no idea if that deal was there.

Take out Rogers..after the Eflin deal, the Os had GRod, Burnes, Eflin, Kremer, Irvin, McDermott Povich and Suarez.  That was 8 starters to get through the rest of the year and only 3 of them definitely see time in the playoffs.

The idea that they needed to trade for another back of the rotation start for 2024 is stupid. Trading for a project (again I would have preferred detmers but am good with rogers) was a fine move to make.

So to me, it comes down to what else could we have gotten for 2 old prospects with defensive questions marks that also had some warts offensively. And, if you hold onto them, what is their value going to be in the offseason and beyond?

The complaining about it is short sighted. It’s not intelligent and it’s not knowledgeable because we don’t have all the pieces of the puzzle. And to act like another back of the rotation starter was some need is laughably bad.

[LookitsPuck]

10 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

In your opinion.

I happen to disagree, as does Mike Elias.

Something tells me if he could do that trade again, he wouldn’t. But I suppose it comes down to whether he knew Rogers would be a black hole this year and only cared about the next 2 years for him or not. If he legitimately thought he could contribute positively this year…woof.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The problem wasn’t trading Norby and Stowers.   The problem is who they were traded for.  Just a bad trade.

Judging the Rogers trade right now is really, really, REALLY silly.

It's like judging a draft pick based on 15 games in Low A in his draft year.

Whether or not it was a good trade won't be known for awhile yet.

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We have a 99% chance to make the playoffs with Rogers in AAA. A better starter might have given us a slightly better chance to win the division. But it wouldn't be guaranteed, and winning the division doesn't guarantee you will go deep in the playoffs, as we saw last year. Some even thought the playoff hurt us.

If that's the case, then why bother to trade Norby and Stowers for him at all? Norby would look pretty good as the 3B or DH on this team right now. 

I think the system or scouts that thought Rogers was going to help this year is flawed. Unless they shut him down or rebuild him back into something, he's no better than Irvin, Povich or Zimmerman. All of whom were in the system already.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I sure hope you weren't referring to me. 

So Rogers was pitching good before he got here, huh?

Here's his statcast percentiles:

In his last 10 starts with the Marlins he had a nice 3.48 ERA, but his 4.37 FIP and .268 BABIP, and his 61% strike rate and 8% swinging strike rate all suggest he was getting lucky. Add in that velocity on his fastball had decreased over this span and there were major warning signs that he was going to be a good buy for this year.

As I've said, I had no problem trading Norby and Stowers, but would have preferred them to be moved for a better starter. I think this highlights how hard it is to trade hitting prospects alone for good starting pitching. Both Burnes and Eflin cost pitching too.

Tony, why would I be talking about you?  
 

That said, what you showed is that he was pitching like a 3/4 borderline starter..not a #2.  What we traded to obtain a 3/4 starter was perfectly fine.  
 

And again, you don’t know that a better starter could be had for those guys. There is zero evidence of that. 

[BrandoVT]

16 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

None of the advanced stats backed up that the smoke and mirrors Rogers was throwing was sustainable. The changes made while out of the country, and the advanced stats for Fedde show what he was/is doing is sustainable (at least for this year). Fedde also wasn’t a rental, so this is a really glaring misstep by Elias. If he acquired another SP and Rogers? I wouldn’t have been whining about it so much. But he rolled the dice on a broken pitcher this year for what might never come next year. That’s fine to do in the middle of a rebuild, but woefully irresponsible in the middle of a pennant chase.

Look at the other clubs pickups: Kikuchi, Flaherty, Fedde. And then there’s Rogers. Yeah, Eflin was a big hit, but we can also say that he missed on Rogers.

Elias traded for Burnes and Eflin to compete in this year's playoffs. Are there two better starting pitchers to accomplish that? He may have pulled off the most significant starting pitcher trades of both the offseason and trade deadline!

If Rogers contributed to this year that would have been great but that trade was about the next two years.

Norby and Stowers weren't top MLB prospects, were blocked and getting older. Nothing about their underlying metrics stands out compared to the O's payers ahead of them in the majors and behind then in the minors. There is a reason they headed every O's fans list of players to trade and weren't highly valued by other teams. Elias gave Westburg, Cowser, Holliday and Mayo a shot which is what EVERYBODY was begging for. Norby and Stowers were irrelevant and were not highly sought after so Rogers is the best that was available.

Edited August 30 by BrandoVT

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

At the time Suarez and Kremer were pitching very poorly. Povich was as well. Irvin was DFAd.

At that point they had Burnes, Grayson, Eflin. And that’s about it. 

The point is you still had 2 months to go in the season with an awful bullpen and starters that couldn’t go deep and not much depth in regards to starters. Picking up somebody for next year to be in the rotation with the advanced stats he had really was so weird to me and a bunch of others.

And what happened shortly thereafter? Grayson hurt, Chayce McDermott out for the season. Making it even more blindingly obvious that hope isn’t a strategy.

Ah, so it was a bad move even though it worked in hindsight. Sorry, I'm not going to get up in arms and campaign to have Elias fired for that "mistake". 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

If that's the case, then why bother to trade Norby and Stowers for him at all? Norby would look pretty good as the 3B or DH on this team right now. 

I think the system or scouts that thought Rogers was going to help this year is flawed. Unless they shut him down or rebuild him back into something, he's no better than Irvin, Povich or Zimmerman. All of whom were in the system already.

1) had they known all the injuries were coming, maybe they don’t trade Norby. Maybe their crystal ball was in the shop? 
 

2) you trade them because they are old and the longer you hold onto them, the more likely it is that they have no value and you risk losing them for nothing.  (Or you have to DFA other players that you don’t want to lose because the 40 man roster is an issue)

Edited August 30 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

If that's the case, then why bother to trade Norby and Stowers for him at all? Norby would look pretty good as the 3B or DH on this team right now. 

I think the system or scouts that thought Rogers was going to help this year is flawed. Unless they shut him down or rebuild him back into something, he's no better than Irvin, Povich or Zimmerman. All of whom were in the system already.

Because we are losing Burnes and depth is good. I don't think Elias was expecting Rogers to pitch in the 2024 playoffs, although maybe he hoped he might.

[LookitsPuck]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

You keep saying it’s irresponsible to do in a pennant race but it sounds dumber every time you say it.

As I said, I would like to know what else we could have had.  Personally, if we could have had another BP arm, even a rental, for this season that would have been my preference.

But we have no idea if that deal was there.

Take out Rogers..after the Eflin deal, the Os had GRod, Burnes, Eflin, Kremer, Irvin, McDermott Povich and Suarez.  That was 8 starters to get through the rest of the year and only 3 of them definitely see time in the playoffs.

The idea that they needed to trade for another back of the rotation start for 2024 is stupid. Trading for a project (again I would have preferred detmers but am good with rogers) was a fine move to make.

So to me, it comes down to what else could we have gotten for 2 old prospects with defensive questions marks that also had some warts offensively. And, if you hold onto them, what is their value going to be in the offseason and beyond?

The complaining about it is short sighted. It’s not intelligent and it’s not knowledgeable because we don’t have all the pieces of the puzzle. And to act like another back of the rotation starter was some need is laughably bad.

This is laughable because they DFAd Irvin. And Povich was so good that Elias felt compelled to acquire Rogers. And do you keep forgetting how awful Kremer and Suarez were at the time?

Basically 3/5 of the rotation were good/great, the other options you listed were #5 starters or worse. That’s not meaningful depth, man.

Can we just call a spade a spade? Just look at his velocity chart. His velocity was already down this year. It was worse in August. And his Statcast and peripherals were abysmal. Let’s just say Elias gambled and got enamored by a SSS of starts and hoped that they’d translate the rest of the year. They didn’t.

He gambled on an oft injured starter with velocity concerns and bad peripherals. 

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

At the time we needed a 5th starter to stabilize the rotation.   Suarez certainly helped by getting back on track but Rogers was a total failure they didn’t even feel comfortable keeping on the 26 man roster.   The problem wasn’t trading Norby and Stowers.   The problem is who they were traded for.  Just a bad trade.

We won't know until 2026 whether it was a bad trade. Plenty of time for Rogers to get fixed. The trade had very little to do with 2024.

Yes, Rogers was the first option to shore up the rotation but we had other options and it turned out we were OK without him. It's not like Suarez pitching well was a complete surprise. 

[LookitsPuck]

3 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Judging the Rogers trade right now is really, really, REALLY silly.

It's like judging a draft pick based on 15 games in Low A in his draft year.

Whether or not it was a good trade won't be known for awhile yet.

You can most definitely judge it now. Trades can be looked at various ways. For Rogers, you can look at it for this year. In that regard, it is a major miss. Not only did he pitch poorly, but he’s now in the minors, the Orioles are without Norby, and it’s incredibly likely he won’t throw a major league pitch the rest of the year.

Now for 2025 and beyond? Yeah, we can’t say anything about that. But for this year, the year that is still going…it’s a miss.