A year ago, the O's were 43-40 after 83 games

[TonySoprano]

Shouldn't Joe Jordan get most of the credit here? Not really sure Flanagan made these calls either.

Flanagan hired Jordan didn't he? Doesn't the GM get credit or blame for how their manager does? Why not the rest of his staff?

I would say that it's a lot of things, from small things like changing the away jerseys to big things like extending Markakis, trading for Tillman, Jones, Patton, Scott, etc...

What it probably boils down to is that MacPhail for whatever reason, has been given more autonomy to do what he feels is best for the long term viability for the organization in numerous respects.

Things have changed and continue to change throughout the organization. One of the last things to change when you overhaul things is gonna be the ML on field product, unless you go spending hundreds of millions of dollars which is made even more difficult by the worst economy we've experienced in 70 years.

Again, MacPhail has been transparent and straightforward about what he's trying to do and how he's trying to do it.

There is a plan in place and it's very well articulated and demonstrated.

That, my friends, is progress.

I guess what I'm saying is let's give MacPhail the credit for the things he himself has done, such as the Bedard trade. For example, the idea of a Dominican academy is such common-sense that I'm surprised it took until MacPhail to implement it. So much so, I doubt he was the first to come up with the idea. However, and this was no easy task, he was the first to get Angelos to agree to commit the resources in this way.

[Hank Scorpio]

I guess what I'm saying is let's give MacPhail the credit for the things he himself has done, such as the Bedard trade. For example, the idea of a Dominican academy is such common-sense that I'm surprised it took until MacPhail to implement it. So much so, I doubt he was the first to come up with the idea. However, and this was no easy task, he was the first to get Angelos to agree to commit the resources in this way.

I don't disagree with any of this.

For whatever reason, whether it be Angelos coming to grips with the fact that he doesn't know what's best for the Orioles, or if it was MacPhail convincing him that he could whip this mess into shape in 3-5 years, he has been able to do things that none of his predecessors could.

And the organization is better for it.

[waroriole]

I would be thrilled beyond belief if Nick Markakis became the next George Brett. George Brett wasn't a solid player--he was a first ballot Hall of Famer, the best all-around hitter of his generation--a perennial .320 hitter with 25 HR, 50 2B, and a high OBP.

I'd be almost as thrilled if Markakis became the next Al Kaline--never one of the elite players of the game but a perennial all-star who played well until age 40 and was also an easy Hall of Famer.

Right now Markakis looks like he's a long way from being compared to those gentlemen.

Markakis:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=6478

First four years, OPS of .843 Looks to be a perennial 50 2B, 20-25 HR guy to me. The BA will likely come up as well. Right now he is a .295 lifetime hitter, only 10 points below Brett. His lifetime OBP is .371, while Brett's was .369.

Brett:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=41

First four full years, had OPS' of .676, .809, .839 and .905. Once hit more than 11 HR's and never 100 RBI's.

Remember, Nick is a young player and will only get better. He has already shown that he has the potential to be a great player. Just because he has had a down year doesn't mean that he can't improve.

[glenn__davis]

This year was about "building a core". Those core players thus far are Markakis, Roberts, Jones, Wieters, Reimold, Bergesen and Hernandez.

So far, none of them look like they are going to be superstars. And I believe that a few of them need to be if we're going to have a chance to contend.

At age 23, Adam Jones has put up an OPS over .850, is hitting over .300, is on pace for about 25 HR and has played decent CF defense (has the potential to play elite CF defense). I'd say those numbers put him on the track to superstardom for now. He's gone through some rough patches with the bat, but he's young, so that's expected. And just as you can't throw out the cold streaks when making an argument, you can't throw out the hot ones either.

Not sure how you can make any judgment yet about Wieters. I think he's going to have a very impressive second half, myself.

Bergesen was never going to be a superstar, but he's been far better than most fans expected. You could probably throw Reimold into that mix as well.

Markakis - we just have to ride it out. I certainly believe he's far better than he's shown lately, and we just have to hope we'll see that in the 2nd half.

[nadecir]

The Orioles rebuilding would be a lot easier for most to take if results on the field indicated at least some small improvement. It doesn't look at the moment as if we are seeing any improvement in results. Perhaps we can compete in 2011 or 2012, but realistically we are going to see some improvement in the Orioles play in the near future to get there.

The Orioles' farm system is better, but the AL East is a meat grinder. With the arrival of the Rays as a competitor, the AL East is better than it ever has been. The Orioles are currently last in the AL East in both hitting and pitching, something that has not happened in over 20 years (1988). Do the Orioles really have enough on the major league roster now, augmented with what is coming up on the farm to compete against the AL East? Remember that there are some pretty good farm systems on the teams in the AL East too, especially the Red Sox and Rays systems. I think doubt is starting to creep it on whether the Orioles have enough talent to overtake the teams ahead of us; it is a big hill to climb being last in both hitting and pitching in the division. You can say the Rays made a big leap in 2008, but the Rays were at least third in the division in hitting in 2007.

I don't think anyone would question that Andy MacPhail has made some good moves over the last few years. He has done a good job, but I would preferred he be a little more like the 2008 Billy Beane and trade some of the vets for younger, lower level prospects in the last two seasons. The question remaining is this: has MacPhail done enough to get us to contention soon? I think most of us can agree that if we don't see some improvement in the Orioles record in 2010 then there will be even bigger doubt on whether he has indeed done enough in improving the Orioles talent base to compete in the AL East.

[Tony-OH]

WADR, you spent some time lauding people that were selected on Flanagan's watch, not MacPhail's

Bergesen - drafted 2004

Reimold - drafted 2005

Wieters - drafted 2007

Hernandez - drafted 2005

Berken - drafted 2006

Snyder - drafted 2005

Arrieta - drafted 2007

MacPhail drafted Matusz and Hobgood and made a great trade that got us Jones.

Is it the idea that MacPhail gets the credit for taking the pieces that Flanagan provided and cleverly shaping it into a possible contender in what will be his fourth full season on the job in 2011?

First off, I'm not sure how much you can give Flanagan credit for since it was Beattie who hired Joe Jordan and Flanagan did not influence who was selected over this time period.

What's fair to say is that MacPahil is the first GM to have the authority to rebuild the organization and to spend money where others may not have had the same authority. MacPhail has been far from perfect during his tenor with allowing his team to go through 2008 with a putrid group of shortstops and his decision to try veteran stopgaps like Trachsel and Eaton when it was fairly clear in spring training that neither were going to provide much value.

Additionally, his actions during negotiations are very deliberate and take a lot of time and sometimes that means others opportunities go by the wayside.

Saying that, the good that MacPhail has brought to the organization certainly vastly outweighs the negative in my opinion. If in 2011 the team still has a losing record then I'll lose faith, but to me, I see a train heading in the right direction.

Now is that direction enough to compete year in and year out with the Red $ox and Yankee$? I don't know. I honestly don't know if the Rays, Blue Jays or Orioles can compete year in and year out in an unbalanced scheduled within the AL East due to the payroll disparity that MLB allows.

I do know if they have a chance it will be with good young pitcher and that's what the Orioles have.

[NewMarketSean]

At age 23, Adam Jones has put up an OPS over .850, is hitting over .300, is on pace for about 25 HR and has played decent CF defense (has the potential to play elite CF defense). I'd say those numbers put him on the track to superstardom for now. He's gone through some rough patches with the bat, but he's young, so that's expected. And just as you can't throw out the cold streaks when making an argument, you can't throw out the hot ones either.

Not sure how you can make any judgment yet about Wieters. I think he's going to have a very impressive second half, myself.

Bergesen was never going to be a superstar, but he's been far better than most fans expected. You could probably throw Reimold into that mix as well.

Markakis - we just have to ride it out. I certainly believe he's far better than he's shown lately, and we just have to hope we'll see that in the 2nd half.

I am just saying... we could be feeling a lot better about 2010 if the core were all performing well. So far as a whole they have been disappointing.

[ejf1025]

Flanagan hired Jordan didn't he? Doesn't the GM get credit or blame for how their manager does? Why not the rest of his staff?

McPhail didn't boot Jordan out either, so obviously his evaluation of Jordan was positive...

Part of the job of the GM when coming into a bad situation is analyzing what works and what doesn't and making appropriate moves.

I give both McPhail and Beatigan credit for letting Jordan do his job...but I'm not prepared to start chalking up Wieters, Reimold, et al as wins for Beatigan--just like I won't give McPhail wins for Matusz and Hobgood.

[TonySoprano]

In short, one of MacPhail's biggest accomplishments was to get Angelos to take more of a backseat role. That's something that six of MacPhail's predecessors couldn't do and one move that could really make a positive difference.

[Hank Scorpio]

In short, one of MacPhail's biggest accomplishments was to get Angelos to take more of a backseat role. That's something that six of MacPhail's predecessors couldn't do and one move that could really make a positive difference.

100% correct.

[RShack]

I expected to see progress in the W/L record this year. So far, we definitely are not seeing it.

You expected to see it in the first half?

[Shopay]

It is amazing how many normally sane people are jumping off the ship because of the win-loss record of this team. MacPhail has said 2011 all along. Rebuilding is painul if done correctly and we are experiencing the pain right now.

However, I see Bergesen, Reimold, Wieters getting their feet wet with some success and I see Jones becoming an All-Star. I see Hernandez and Berken show they should have some role on a big league staff and I see Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman all having great years in the minors.

I see the next wave of arms doing well down on the farm and I see Brandon Synder showing he should be a force to be reckoned with shortly.

I see an over seas scouting bureau tapping into the Japanese market and I hear the Orioles are contenders for a top Dominican talent.

I see upgrades to Mora and possibly Huff next season and I see a rotation that will include Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Bergesen and possibly Britton or Patton or Hernandez or possibly Hobgood one day.

Yes my friends, we are on the right path even if that pass has to take us deeper into the abyss in the near future.

Excellent post Tony. As tough as it is to watch some of the O's games this year, this is really how we need to be evaluating things.

[TonySoprano]

You expected to see it in the first half?

You expected a seven game regression (to date) from 2008? Why? Would it have been unreasonable to assume we could have at least held our ground?

[Sports Guy]

The won/loss record isn't that important this year...what is important is how the year ends.

AM has made great progress but I don't think you can argue some of the points BB has made in the thread.

That being said, I would blame things on DT much more than AM.

[glenn__davis]

You expected a seven game regression (to date) from 2008? Why? Would it have been unreasonable to assume we could have at least held our ground?

Unreasonable? No.

Assumed? With a starting 5 of Guthrie, Uehara, Simon, Hendrickson and Eaton? Also no.