Adrian Gonzalez - Trade Target in 2010?

[mweb]

I was talking about my team. You said that it wouldn't matter much..I disagree. I think that is a team that could be set up to win 85 games in 2010, and 90-95 games in 2011, which basically means we'd be one of the top teams in the league and contending then and in the next several years.

I think your team does the same for 2010 but it is the long-term void that is the big issue. If you think there is a guy in the 2011 offseason that you can get, then I can definitely get on board with your strategy...I just don't see it. 2 years is too long to wait for a middle of the order solution IMO, if you want to wait for AGon to be a FA.

I wouldn't add to that deal anyone that would make a difference for the Padres...If they wanted a guy like Butler, Turner or Waring thrown in, sure, but like I said that's doubtful to make a difference. I would give them Spoone also if they wanted to take a chance on him.

I wouldn't add another piece like Britton/Erbe. If Reimold, Synder, Arrieta, Ray, and < Butler wasn't enough, I'd pass.

For goodness sakes..., I've never said yours or my team(which on paper isn't much different imo) wouldn't be able to win 85 games next year. I said they wouldn't make the playoffs, so to me that's a year wasted in the two years of value you're getting in the trade. And even with your estimate of 90-95 wins in 2011, decent chance there's no playoffs due to the division.

And based on what you'd be willing to add to your deal, I think we both end up in the same boat of passing on AGon.

[mweb]

Giles was traded in the offseason heading into 2004...Padres won the division in 2005 and 2006, and had a better record in 2007 when they lost in the tiebreaker. Giles was a key player on the division title teams hitting at the top of their lineup...he was fading in 2007.

Bay was better than him almost from the instant he was traded. Now, we are also talking about a much better and younger player in Gonzalez than Giles so that has to be factored in...We would getting the absolute peak years of AGON's career.

First off, they won the division because it was so bad, we don't have that going for us, and Giles wasn't that good in 2006. Secondly, as you point out, Bay became better right away. Plus, don't forget Oliver Perez who went onto have a monster year the year after the trade. The trade was not successful, nor is it a good example even if Bay and Perez did nothing due to the awful division, so I'm still curious about this question.

[Dr. Andrews]

The big bat though, is the draw for both the fans and the players. Players won't take notice if you sign a Russell Braynan IMO. But if you go out and trade prospects for an Adrian Gonzalez, that sends a message to the players and your fanbase that the Orioles are serious about winning IMO. And it also shows other FAs out there that the Orioles are serious about winning games and competing in the division.

That message needs to be sent to both fans and currently players badly. Right now there is an indefinate timetable and it's hurting attendance and player morale and motivation IMO. This franchise needs that jolt that trading for a Gonzalez could provide.

Tell me how you plan to address the fact that we give up the 2nd most earned runs in all of baseball?...That, to me, seems to be the most glaring issue that we have. We're middle of the pack, slightly above, offensively...but we are pretty darn close to last in the pitching department...I can't see how you can think a singular bat, even as talented as that of Adrian Gonzalez's, can compensate for the amount of runs we give up. Trading our top pitching prospects doesn't help that cause either, in fact, I think it sets us back years.

[mweb]

I think that is a 85 win team on average...If the pitchers step up like the Tigers similar young staff in 2006 and TB in 2008, we could definitely make a run. To add to this, I think being a winning team is important to the O's next season in order to take that next step. Not often does a team do what Tampa did and go from the basement to 95 wins. Why do you think Matusz is up right now as opposed to mid April next season? The O's obviously are going to try to win as many games as possible next year, but they aren't likely to contend either, so what does that tell you? Tells me they are trying to start a winning culture next year, maybe sniff the WC if things break right, and start gettin very serious in 2011.

90-95 is certainly right in the thick of the playoff race considering we will be taking wins away from the Yanks and Sox. Perhaps I should change that to 92-97.

And again, I could care less about the 2 years. If I get Gonzalez, he is getting extended. He'd be nuts to turn down between 16-20 a year for 6-7 years when he is 2 years from free agency in a struggling economy. I know you are sticking with the 2 year value thing but I am looking at it from a different perspective. You are looking at it as wasting 50% of Gonzalez on a year in which we are unlikely to make the playoffs. I am looking at it as "wasting" perhaps year 1 of 6 or 7 years, and I wouldn't call winning 85 games a wasted year either.

I'd like to win next year as well, and I've listed moves that has about the same chance at getting that accomplished, but without giving up so much young talent.

Ultimately we're looking at basically the same thing long-term though. Well actually I'm looking at having a big bat long-term, plus whatever would be traded to get AGon, while you're looking at AGon minus whatever it would take to trade him. To me, the choice is simple.

[mweb]

I can't think of any off the top of my head. The O's have the perfect storm to buck this trend...AM has done a marvelous job stockpiling talent, yet we are in a division that keeps us sucking even though we have made strides as far as young talent. It's tougher to win games while growing that talent, which means that A) our record will be worse than most teams making a trade for a premium player B) our record doesn't mprove just because of the young talent, which makes it important to go get a guy like Gonzalez to compliment that talent.

So yeah, I would tend to agree with you that it doesn't happen much. Most last place teams don't have the talent we have in this organization, nor the resources to lock up/take on a premium player like Gonzalez. Pirates, Royals, Padres now, A's, Rays, Marlins, Brewers...all of these teams are bad, in our position, but wouldn't really be able to absorb the money it would take to bring on a player like Gonzo.

We are a bad team right now record wise, but our future is looking bright. We have the depth both to trade, and to also have here to allow the acquisition to supplement. That is as rare as this type of trade.

Obviously I disagree about the perfect strorm.

Concerning what I put in bold, the Rays were in our position and obviously found a way to make the playoffs without trading away a lot of their young talent for an established star.

[MrDurden]

2008 Rays had big bats... can't compare ourselves to them, even in 2010. UNLESS we trade for a couple of these big blankity-blanks who can hit the ball out of the park and that way you can't make any mistakes.

But seriously, yes, we need a bat like A-Gon to contend and might have to give up a little bit of reverse McPhail magic to get him. Wouldn't be that bad at all.

[whatdoiget000]

If it could be Arrieta, Snyder, Britton, and Bundy I'd be down.

[mweb]

Well where is that big bat coming from? We know the deal this offseason, here is next offseason's list...

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/05/potential-free-agents-for-2011.html

Pena looks like the best option at 1B and he will be 32 plus will be on the open market. I'd certainly pass on that. I think you can agree that on that very depressing FA list that there is not much as far as longterm offense as far as a bigtime bat. (Hardy would intrigue me as a SS)

So by now we are into the 2011-2012 offseason, when Pujols and AGon will be free agents, not sure who else. So are you willing to wait 2 years, and then bid against every team? By then I think we will be a much more desirable destination but still, bidding against every team, several of which have more resources than us, although we should be in very good payroll position.

If you've been reading what I've been saying, you should know I'm fine with getting a couple of the guys I've listed as tempory solutions at the corners and waiting for guys like AGon, Fielder, Pujols, Berkman, etc to possibly hit the market. Pena and Dunn would be fine options next off-season as well, and if Dunn is the guy, which would be preferred, one of the 1B in the next class can still be aquired. Could go after one of the left fielders this off-season or in the coming ones as well if desired, then move Reimold to DH and trade Scott.

So if the team is taking the whatever it takes approach once on the cusp of contention, they should be able to land 1-2 premium bats. If they're aren't ever going to take that approach as some have suggested, they won't do what you want either.

[Dr. Andrews]

2008 Rays had big bats... can't compare ourselves to them, even in 2010. UNLESS we trade for a couple of these big blankity-blanks who can hit the ball out of the park and that way you can't make any mistakes.

But seriously, yes, we need a bat like A-Gon to contend and might have to give up a little bit of reverse McPhail magic to get him. Wouldn't be that bad at all.

I'll tell you what the 2008 Rays didn't do...GIVE UP THE 2nd MOST EARNED RUNS IN ALL OF BASEBALL...that's what the Orioles are doing now, and until someone addresses how TRADING AWAY top pitching prospects helps that figure, I'm going to keep bringing it up. Babe Ruth couldn't help our cause if we give up THAT many runs.

AM specifically said he was going to BUY BATS and GROW ARMS...nowhere in there does it say TRADE ARMS. I support Mr. MacPhail and his plan.

[mweb]

Perfect storm for bucking the trend that you are speaking of, as in, having a bad team trade young players for a premium guy. Not saying it's the 100% ideal thing to do, but I'm saying that we are in a different situation than most teams that end up with our record.

And yeah, the Rays sucked for years, basically had the first pick in the draft for a decade, and went on a nice run. Also that's not saying they wouldn't be better off if they would have traded some of their prospects for more established players, it's just that it didn't happen.

I could ask you the same thing...How many times has a team did what the Rays did by basically not changing the team from one year to another (they did do the Garza trade)

They also made some very smart smaller moves like Pena and Bartlett.

I would have to think about it, the early 90's Braves may be an example. I was just showing that trading for a guy like AGon is not necessary for the team to start winning.

I think the way teams like ours typically start contending is by developing a lot of young talent and then supplementing it with free agency.

I'm also not advocating little to no change as I've made clear.

[MrDurden]

I'll tell you what the 2008 Rays didn't do...GIVE UP THE 2nd MOST EARNED RUNS IN ALL OF BASEBALL...that's what the Orioles are doing now, and until someone addresses how TRADING AWAY top pitching prospects helps that figure, I'm going to keep bringing it up. Babe Ruth couldn't help our cause if we give up THAT many runs.

Oh dude, I am totally in agreement with you. Im not saying to dump Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Hernandez for a bat or two...

But I think we could possibly shrewdly not more than one grade A prospect and a bunch of filler for A-Gon. You have to remember that the Padres are where we were a few years ago with a horrible record, roster, and not too much hope down the farm. Im thinking they are more desperate to sell than most teams are to buy right now.

[mweb]

BTW, when people say where are the big bats going to come from, lets not forget that we have 4 young guys in our lineup that are certainly capable of putting up an OPS around .900. One did last year, 2 of the others are showing good signs, and the other one was expected to be that type of hitter by just about everyone on here before he was called up, and many obviously still feel that way. Plus, Snyder and Bell have good potential, and we have Roberts. Add a SS like Hardy and a good bat, regardless of him being a classic #4 hitter that is being clamored for, and that can be a very good lineup.

Of course I'm not saying we should settle for what I describe or expect everyone to develop as we hope, but I think the need for a big power bat is a bit overblown on here.

[MrDurden]

Btw.... I just realized TODAY that I miss Kevin Millar for his TANGIBLES now!

Wow. Just... wow.

[mweb]

Fair enough. Funny I am debating this because I am usually taking your stance on these kind of moves, a big reason why I advocated Tex last offseason. But I think with the package I threw out, that Reimold is a solid to good longterm LF..I am not sure that in 3 years that both Synder and Arrieta will be solid contributors. Fairly solid chance that one of them doesn't make it, and they are replaceable anyway.

Of course, if you don't think that package gets it than it's moot anyway because as I said, I wouldn't be willing to go much higher.

I'm calling it a night, thanks for the discussion.

Yeah, I'm have a big debate with someone who has given me most of my recent rep.

I'm obviously not sure Snyder or Arrieta will be soild contributors, but I like their chances. Brandon likely won't be the big power hitter, but as someone posted in the minors section, his minor league numbers are similar to AGon's, but I do think he can be a good 1B or DH. I think Arrieta is likely to at least be a very good high leverage reliever.

Yeah, this is probably moot anyway.

Good call, I should do the same.

It's been fun.

[Sports Guy]

There are several first baseman I would take over AGon:

Tex

Youk

MCab

Morneau

Howard(probably even with AGon)

Fielder

Pujols

Votto