Orioles Interested In Ryan Shealy

[DrungoHazewood]

So based on actual results over three years- (hype aside) why is it such an awful idea ?

Because Loewen is 22 and Shealy is 26? Chances are Loewen still has 4-5 years of improvement left in him, while Shealy is pretty close to being as good as he'll ever be. Loewen's upside is a #1 or #2 starter in the majors. Shealy looks a lot like his upside is league-average DH, with a chance at a being a bit better for a few years. Suck the high-altitude and hitter's league air out of his minor league numbers and he's an old prospect with a likely .800-ish OPS.

Remember, not only is Shealy 26, but he has old player's skills. Guys who already have power and plate discipline but lack speed and athleticism in their early 20s tend to age poorly, since they already have an abundance of the things that theoretically could improve as they move into their 30s.

[davearm]

Because Loewen is 22 and Shealy is 26? Chances are Loewen still has 4-5 years of improvement left in him, while Shealy is pretty close to being as good as he'll ever be. Loewen's upside is a #1 or #2 starter in the majors. Shealy looks a lot like his upside is league-average DH, with a chance at a being a bit better for a few years. Suck the high-altitude and hitter's league air out of his minor league numbers and he's an old prospect with a likely .800-ish OPS.

Remember, not only is Shealy 26, but he has old player's skills. Guys who already have power and plate discipline but lack speed and athleticism in their early 20s tend to age poorly, since they already have an abundance of the things that theoretically could improve as they move into their 30s.

That's his *upside*? I thought upside was synonymous with best-case scenario.

Shealy's best-case scenario is a guy that will hit 40+ HRs and carry a 1.000 OPS, and play fair-to-good D at first.

[Crazy O]

That's his *upside*? I thought upside was synonymous with best-case scenario.

Shealy's best-case scenario is a guy that will hit 40+ HRs and carry a 1.000 OPS, and play fair-to-good D at first.

No, that's my upside.

[66-70-83-??]

Well, I didn't actually say Loewen for Shealy, did I.

Ah, yes you did.

My point is that if you are going to trade Loewen you should package him and get a heck of a lot more than a 26year old AAAA DH type player. Trading one of our better pitching prospects for the Ryan Shealy's of the world is not the answer.

Ah, funny how you left out what came right after that.

The Orioles should counter-offer with Loewen for Shealy and _____?____.

What makes you think Loewen's value is that high around MLB ?

I have seen them all pitch and I value Olson and Penn over Loewen.

[Sports Guy]

Ah, funny how you left out what came right after that.

The Orioles should counter-offer with Loewen for Shealy and _____?____.

What makes you think Loewen's value is that high around MLB ?

I have seen them all pitch and I value Olson and Penn over Loewen.

Most publications had Loewen as a top 30-50 prospect in all of baseball this year.

So, unless the teams see something that these guys don't(which i doubt), i would say his value is very high.

[66-70-83-??]

Because Loewen is 22 and Shealy is 26? Chances are Loewen still has 4-5 years of improvement left in him, while Shealy is pretty close to being as good as he'll ever be.

Based on what ?

Howard (same age as Shealy) minors- .299/.384/.547/.931

Shealy = .324/.417/594/1011

Derek Lee is still getting better in his early 30's

Konerko started getting better in his late 20's

Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, etc....

There are tons of guys (like the above 1B's) that continue to get better.

Shealy is just hitting his prime.

Yes- it would be great to get a 20 yr old (Miguel Cabrera type) but be realistic.

Likewise- there are NO guarantees that Loewen will improve.

[mikezpen]

Who's to say that Adam Loewen will improve that much just because he's 22? I see very little improvement in his control in the 3 or so years he's been a pro. He averaged over 5 walks a game in the 2005 AFL and about 5 this year at Bowie. In Baltimore it was around 6. If he doesn't improve dramatically in command/control, he'll never make the Majors.He won't even be a #5 much less a #1 or 2.Maybe you don't want to trade him for Shealy; maybe you do. But if anybody will take Adam Loewen and offer us something we really need, you'd better wipe the stardust out of your eyes and look at that deal real hard.

Shealy's been in triple-A for 2 years now. Is that because he's not that good or because he's buried behind Todd Helton? Whose to say he couldn't have made it up here 2 or 3 years ago with another team-like the ORIOLES for example?

[Moose Milligan]

Who's to say that Adam Loewen will improve that much just because he's 22? I see very little improvement in his control in the 3 or so years he's been a pro. He averaged over 5 walks a game in the 2005 AFL and about 5 this year at Bowie. In Baltimore it was around 6. If he doesn't improve dramatically in command/control, he'll never make the Majors.He won't even be a #5 much less a #1 or 2.Maybe you don't want to trade him for Shealy; maybe you do. But if anybody will take Adam Loewen and offer us something we really need, you'd better wipe the stardust out of your eyes and look at that deal real hard.

Shealy's been in triple-A for 2 years now. Is that because he's not that good or because he's buried behind Todd Helton? Whose to say he couldn't have made it up here 2 or 3 years ago with another team-like the ORIOLES for example?

Well said.

[NJOriolesFan]

I would try to do the deal keeping Loewen and Penn out of it. I have to believe (and maybe wrongly so) that Bedard and Cabrera are better and more likely to reach their potential than Loewen and Penn and that Loewen and Penn (ranked as our top 10 pitching prospects) are more likely to "make it" than Olson, Johnson, Liz or Erbe.

We currently need and will need in future years 5 starters. I would hold on to our best 5 young ones (Bedard, Cabrera, Penn and Loewen) and trade any one of the other four for Shealy. Let them pick. We still have 3 guys who can battle it out to emerge as our #5 starter and if that doesn't pan out, the money we are saving by having Shealy as our 1st baseman can be spent on a $12 million ace starter if we are desparate for a 5th guy.

Yes I know, we can't even be certain that we have even one good starting pitcher but at least we do know that we have Kris Benson and no fewer than 8 candidates to compete for rotation spots in 2007 and/or 2008. There are differing opinions on the rankings of Olson, Johnson, Liz and Erbe. Ask any FO memebr, scout, fan, etc. and they will all give you a different 1-4 of those 4 guys. The guy we trade away won't bite us in the ass because the chance of a guy putting up stellar picthing numbers in Colorado is next to nill.

Trade Olson for Shealy and be done with it. It also gives us more flexibility in what we need to ask for with Lopez and Lopez. It is no longer a requirement that we get a 1b. We could trade Lopez and Lopez for Olson's equivalent replacement.

Shealy has already succeeded in a limited amount of time in the bigs. Olson could become Rocky Coppinger or Matt Riley or Kurt Ainsworth or Denny Bautista.

[DrungoHazewood]

Based on what ?

Howard (same age as Shealy) minors- .299/.384/.547/.931

Shealy = .324/.417/594/1011

There's a world of difference between Scranton and Colorado Springs.

Derek Lee is still getting better in his early 30's

Konerko started getting better in his late 20's

Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, etc....

There are tons of guys (like the above 1B's) that continue to get better.

Shealy is just hitting his prime.

Yes- it would be great to get a 20 yr old (Miguel Cabrera type) but be realistic.

Likewise- there are NO guarantees that Loewen will improve.

Yes, Shealy could get better, but chances are he'll be like most players and peak at 27. And like most players with old player skills he'll be likely to age poorly. He could buck trends. But chances are he won't.

[DrungoHazewood]

That's his *upside*? I thought upside was synonymous with best-case scenario.

Shealy's best-case scenario is a guy that will hit 40+ HRs and carry a 1.000 OPS, and play fair-to-good D at first.

I was using upside to mean realistic best-case scenerio. For Shealy, at sea level, I'd peg that as a few years in a .900 OPS range. His 50% PECOTA is an .864 OPS in Denver. At OPACY that's maybe an .800. I can believe .900, but for a .800 OPS guy to develop into a 1.000 OPS guy would be a rather extraordinary jump.

[ATO UMD]

What about the mantra "There is No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect"? If we're talking about quality arms, we have plenty of those and should deal one to get a quality bat at 1B, which we sorely need.

Also, ESPN had an article up a couple days ago (I couldn't read it because it was for Insiders) about how Coors isn't playing like the insanely hitter-friendly park this year. I think they started treating the balls before games or something. Does anybody know if the same thing applies for the AAA park Shealy plays in?

[DrungoHazewood]

What about the mantra "There is No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect"? If we're talking about quality arms, we have plenty of those and should deal one to get a quality bat at 1B, which we sorely need.

Also, ESPN had an article up a couple days ago (I couldn't read it because it was for Insiders) about how Coors isn't playing like the insanely hitter-friendly park this year. I think they started treating the balls before games or something. Does anybody know if the same thing applies for the AAA park Shealy plays in?

It's all about the market. Most teams don't yet believe in TNSTAAPP, so a guy like Loewen should have significant value. I tend to think he has quite a bit more value than a 26-year-old DH/1B who's still in AAA. I fully agree that the O's should be shopping young pitchers for young hitters. I just don't like this deal. I think if you're going to trade a top-50 prospect like Loewen you need to get a younger, more projectable prospect in return.

Don't know if Colorado Springs has been using the same humidor that they use in Denver. That's an interesting question that might have a significant impact on Shealy's value.

[twoBshorty]

The question about the Orioles overvaluing their prospects is a valid one, IMO. I have gotten the impression from other teams' boards that we have something of a Tampa reputation in that department: demanding the moon and then stalling and then the deal falls apart. Hayden Penn has been called a B-level prospect on more than one occasion. It does make you wonder.

[ATO UMD]

http://www.angelfire.com/nb/jms/milb/ColPCL.html#Ryan+Shealy

These split stats provided earlier in the thread say the AAA team probably doesn't have such a humidor. While Shealy still puts up a .926 OPS on the road, his homerun production falls from 8 to 4 in 87 and 72 at-bats respectively. It should be noted though that he has been hitting .264 at home and .306 on the road.