What If Tejada Is Traded?

[Boca Bird]

Fact is that we look like we made out better drafting Townsend, losing him, then getting Olsen, then drafting Drew.

You think its better having Olson than Jared Weaver ?

[TyCobb]

You think its better having Olson than Jared Weaver ?

I Personally don't think Jared Weaver is that good. I haven't seen Olson so I can't say who is better.

[JohnD]

I Personally don't think Jared Weaver is that good. I haven't seen Olson so I can't say who is better.

Well Weaver has yet to lose a game this year (7-0 or something?) and has an ERA under 2 for a likely playoff team. Olson is in AA Bowie. It's not even close.

[TyCobb]

Well Weaver has yet to lose a game this year (7-0 or something?) and has an ERA under 2 for a likely playoff team. Olson is in AA Bowie. It's not even close.

Didn't Small last year go 10-0.

[TyCobb]

I think Weaver is getting people out now. I just don't think in the long run Weaver is going to be any good.

[Boca Bird]

I Personally don't think Jared Weaver is that good. I haven't seen Olson so I can't say who is better.

Wow.

The first time I saw Weaver pitch for LB St at the College WS, I was mesmerizied. Then the announcer on TV mentioned that he was represented by Scott Boras, so I prepared myself for the inevitability that we wouldn't sign him. I didn't realize that we actually had a chance.

Oh well, at least he's a monster on my fantasy team. If only he played for my beloved Orioles........

[utvolzac]

I Personally don't think Jared Weaver is that good. I haven't seen Olson so I can't say who is better.

You can't be serious. Jerad Weaver is just filthy. 7-0 with a 1.15 ERA. He's dominated at every level he's been at. Your not getting him confused with his brother Jeff, are you?

I'd put Weaver right up there with Liriano & Verlander as the best young arms in the league.

I wish the Angels GM shared your opinion, because I'd swap Olson for Weaver in half a second.

[TyCobb]

You can't be serious. Jerad Weaver is just filthy. 7-0 with a 1.15 ERA. He's dominated at every level he's been at. Your not getting him confused with his brother Jeff, are you?

I'd put Weaver right up there with Liriano & Verlander as the best young arms in the league.

I wish the Angels GM shared your opinion, because I'd swap Olson for Weaver in half a second.

I have seen 2 games where Weaver has pitched. I was not that impressed. He is going good right now, but watch out for next season.

[geschinger]

No they didn't take Drew or Weaver OBVIOUSLY They took Verlander who fell to them because San Diego was worried about signabilty and took that HS SS. Can you argue with Verlander as a pick? Verlander was the one pitcher rated as highly as Weaver. When all things are equal, then and only then, you can worry about signability.

SD didn't like Verlander better than Bush. Verlander was never regarded as a signability problem. SD went down the wire considering Weaver and passed due to signability. Verlander wasn't the obvious #2 pick, he was not rated as highly as Weaver, there were projections where he might have been available to Baltimore and I was on OH saying he's the guy we should take if he made it down to us whereas I never thought Weaver or Drew were possibilities due to signability.

When did I say the Orioles ignored the FA market ??? You asked what did Detroit overpaying for FA's have to do with their 2006 team[/b]. Remember ? Thats why I mentioned Rogers and Jones. I guess you could say overpaying for FA's applies to their catcher as well as their clean-up hitter.

If I misintrepreted your earlier posts then I apologize. I thought you were saying that we were ignoring the FA market; that we weren't following a plan similar to that of Detroit.

I have no interest in Zito or a 5 yr contract. Why would you mention Zito?

Just using him as an example. The popular sentiment on the boards seems to be that we should go into the FA class in the offseason and get Zito and Carlos Lee. Both would be mistakes IMO as both will get highly inflated contracts in a weak FA year.

My point, as I originally stated, was that people forget that the Tigers initially had to overpay FA's at first to get them. You said it was BS. Its not BS, their #3 and #4 hitters, their #1 starter and their closer were all "overpaid."

My point as originally stated is that overpaying for FA has little to nothing to do with why they are having such a good year. And no, I don't consider guys like Rogers or Jones to be overpaid.

Conversely, in Orioleland, during the winter, you hear things like "we're waiting for the market to establish itself". In the summer, when draft day rolls around, you hear terms like "signability". Detroit is winning right now because they have been committed to to winning. Its apparent that the O's rosters are designed in a way that IF everything goes right, we might have a chance. The Tigers seemed intent on winning and they are finally enjoying the friuts of their labor. Good for them. I'm envious. You don't win until you're committed to winning. Do you honestly think Angelos is commited to winning? Detroit did what it had to do. It seems like this franchise is stuck in a mode of expediency

But hey, you're right, the Oriole approach is working way better than the Tigers. You can't argue with facts like that

Its also a fact that bad defensive players win gold gloves too, right ?

I guess other than the results - mainly attributable to their young pitching I don't see all that much difference in the approach.

Verlander wasn't a risky pick as far as signability. Weaver was regarded higher. So I'm not sure what your point is there.

The Tigers sign guys to 1 or 2 year contracts as stopgaps and they perform admirably whereas the O's stopgaps haven't been as successful.

Both teams spent heavily in recent years to upgrade at catcher and both teams have had similar results.

Both teams spent heavily on a big offensive player and Tejada compares favorably to Ordonez.

Both teams have developed some good arms, but other than Bedard and Ray the Tigers arms are producing whereas the O's guys are struggling.

The Tigers have also developed some positional players that are contributing whereas the O's only have Markakis who is starting to come around.

The big differentiator on talent is that the Tigers hired Dombrowski who is excellent at talent evaluation in 2001. We've only had Jordan for two drafts. I honestly believe that when he has as many drafts under his belt as Dombrowski has had in Detroit that we'll have a pipeline of quality positional prospects ready to contribute along w/the young pitching.

The question is can the GMs make good pickups of the 2nd or 3rd tier of FA and make good trades like Dombrowski? I don't know the answer to that.

But again, and correct me where I'm wrong but I don't see all that much difference in their plan. Again, the Tigers have just implemented a similar plan much more competently.

[Boca Bird]

SD didn't like Verlander better than Bush. Verlander was never regarded as a signability problem. SD went down the wire considering Weaver and passed due to signability. Verlander wasn't the obvious #2 pick, he was not rated as highly as Weaver, there were projections where he might have been available to Baltimore and I was on OH saying he's the guy we should take if he made it down to us whereas I never thought Weaver or Drew were possibilities due to signability.

If I misintrepreted your earlier posts then I apologize. I thought you were saying that we were ignoring the FA market; that we weren't following a plan similar to that of Detroit.

Just using him as an example. The popular sentiment on the boards seems to be that we should go into the FA class in the offseason and get Zito and Carlos Lee. Both would be mistakes IMO as both will get highly inflated contracts in a weak FA year.

My point as originally stated is that overpaying for FA has little to nothing to do with why they are having such a good year. And no, I don't consider guys like Rogers or Jones to be overpaid.

I guess other than the results - mainly attributable to their young pitching I don't see all that much difference in the approach.

Verlander wasn't a risky pick as far as signability. Weaver was regarded higher. So I'm not sure what your point is there.

The Tigers sign guys to 1 or 2 year contracts as stopgaps and they perform admirably whereas the O's stopgaps haven't been as successful.

Both teams spent heavily in recent years to upgrade at catcher and both teams have had similar results.

Both teams spent heavily on a big offensive player and Tejada compares favorably to Ordonez.

Both teams have developed some good arms, but other than Bedard and Ray the Tigers arms are producing whereas the O's guys are struggling.

The Tigers have also developed some positional players that are contributing whereas the O's only have Markakis who is starting to come around.

The big differentiator on talent is that the Tigers hired Dombrowski who is excellent at talent evaluation in 2001. We've only had Jordan for two drafts. I honestly believe that when he has as many drafts under his belt as Dombrowski has had in Detroit that we'll have a pipeline of quality positional prospects ready to contribute along w/the young pitching.

The question is can the GMs make good pickups of the 2nd or 3rd tier of FA and make good trades like Dombrowski? I don't know the answer to that.

But again, and correct me where I'm wrong but I don't see all that much difference in their plan. Again, the Tigers have just implemented a similar plan much more competently.

Man that's a long post.

First things first. Verlander was projected higher than Weaver in every publication that I ever read about them. Verlander was projected as a "no.1" starter who would make the Majors quick. Weaver was considered a "frontline" starter. A subtle difference I know, but scouts rated Verlander higher.

As for strategy, let me try to keep it simple. You think that the Tigers and orioles have the same approach, with different results. I disagree. I think that the Tigers have had a much greater sense of urgency and purpose. I think they are more prone to indentify a player and then do whatever is humanly possible to get them. I think the O's identify a player, and with the exception of Tejada, want them to sign on their terms. See Guerrero, Vlad........Lee, Derek. To come so close to these guys only to fail is just stupid.

When it comes down to it, you're not being honest with yourself if you think the Tigers are where they are now without Pudge and/or Ordonez and there is no doubt that they "overpaid" those guys.

Imagine if we would've "overpaid" Vlad or DLee or Delgado or Konerko.

[geschinger]

First things first. Verlander was projected higher than Weaver in every publication that I ever read about them. Verlander was projected as a "no.1" starter who would make the Majors quick. Weaver was considered a "frontline" starter. A subtle difference I know, but scouts rated Verlander higher.

While his stuff was outstanding there were a lot of questions about his command. If Niemann hadn't had some nagging injuries it's highly likely they would of picked him. They also were seriously considering Homer Bailey. It was by no means an obvious selection for them.

As for strategy, let me try to keep it simple. You think that the Tigers and orioles have the same approach, with different results. I disagree. I think that the Tigers have had a much greater sense of urgency and purpose. I think they are more prone to indentify a player and then do whatever is humanly possible to get them. I think the O's identify a player, and with the exception of Tejada, want them to sign on their terms. See Guerrero, Vlad........Lee, Derek. To come so close to these guys only to fail is just stupid.

If that was the case they'd of been successful in signing B.J. Ryan or Kyle Farnsworth two guys they went after but failed to do whatever was humanly possible to sign them. Then they were turned down by Bobby Howry. Is it just stupid that Detroit failed to land their targets? Or might it possibly be that the bidding when above what they thought reasonable so the moved on?

Coming of a 90 loss season their free agent signings were Todd Jones and Kenny Rogers. How does that indicate a much greater sense of urgency and purpose when compared to the moves the Orioles made?

When it comes down to it, you're not being honest with yourself if you think the Tigers are where they are now without Pudge and/or Ordonez and there is no doubt that they "overpaid" those guys.

Imagine if we would've "overpaid" Vlad or DLee or Delgado or Konerko.

Ugh! You aren't getting it... I'm not saying they aren't contributing. I'm simply saying that them overpaying is not why they are doing so well this year. The Orioles didn't vastly overpay Tejada or Lopez/Hernandez but are getting equal if not better production from their big offensive and catching acquisitions than the Tigers are. So again, overpaying for free agents is not why Detroit has turned things around while Baltimore is still well under .500.

Say the O's had done something stupid and vastly overpaid. Say for example Tejada's contract was 6 years 96m and Hernandez was making 10m a year. Would that make you think the Orioles were more serious about winning since they'd be overpaying for talent?

[Boca Bird]

Say the O's had done something stupid and vastly overpaid. Say for example Tejada's contract was 6 years 96m and Hernandez was making 10m a year. Would that make you think the Orioles were more serious about winning since they'd be overpaying for talent?

Now, you're just being ridiculous. When I say overpaid, its relative. In Tejada's case we "overpaid" because we offered one extra year and the highest per season, therefore "overpaid"

I thought it that you understood that when I was referring to the Tigers "overpaying" that I was referring to what the pundits said, hence the quotation marks. The Tigers were mocked for giving pudge a 4 year contract at 10 mil per season. I'm using "overpaid" tongue-in cheek and synonymously with "whatever it takes".

You really don't think the O's should've ponied up the extra 1-2 million per yr that kept them from geting Lee and/or Vlad ?

Just think, that 4 million per season could've kept a couple of retreads off the roster.

Early in the year, a hangout contributor posted an excellent article analyzing all of the money the O's wasted on inconsequential retreads as opposed to just pooling that money for big pieces. Does anyone remember that article?

Gersch, If you want to take a trip down memeory lane on the 2004 draft you can do so here. Note the first sentence talks about the Padres picking for "signability." Note also the blurb about Verlander having the best stuff and therefore the shortest route to the majors in the draft

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20040607&content_id=763535&vkey=draft2004&fext=.jsp

[geschinger]

I thought it that you understood that when I was referring to the Tigers "overpaying" that I was referring to what the pundits said hence the quotation marks. The Tigers were mocked for giving pudge a 4 year contract at 10 mil per season. I'm using "overpaid" tongue-in cheek and synonymously with "whatever it takes".

You really don't think the O's should've ponied up the extra 1-2 million per yr that kept them from geting Lee and/or Vlad ?

Just think, that 4 million per season could've kept a couple of retreads off the roster.

Early in the year, a hangout contributor posted an excellent article analyzing all of the money the O's wasted on inconsequential retreads as opposed to just pooling that money for big pieces. Does anyone remember that article?

You didn't adress the fact that you were wrong about Detroit since they didn't do everything humanly possible to get the guys they targeted. Why aren't you attacking them for letting the market get the best of them and letting BJ Ryan sign w/the Jays and Farnsworth w/the Yankees?

I disagree w/the premise. Yes, I think they should have w/Derek Lee if that was all it would of taken. However I do not believe that an extra 1-2 million would of landed us Vlad. I think the only chance to have gotten him to go to a city he didn't want to be would of taken a heck of a lot more than an extra 1-2m more per year. I've seen no evidence to contradict the statements that he really wanted to be in a city w/a large hispanic population.

As for the Tigers, I believe they are going to really be feeling the pain paying Magglio 15m in 2008 and 18m in 2009. And Tiger fans will be counting the days until his contract comes off the books like O's fans were w/Albert Belle.

[Boca Bird]

You didn't adress the fact that you were wrong about Detroit since they didn't do everything humanly possible to get the guys they targeted. Why aren't you attacking them for letting the market get the best of them and letting BJ Ryan sign w/the Jays and Farnsworth w/the Yankees?

I disagree w/the premise. Yes, I think they should have w/Derek Lee if that was all it would of taken. However I do not believe that an extra 1-2 million would of landed us Vlad. I think the only chance to have gotten him to go to a city he didn't want to be would of taken a heck of a lot more than an extra 1-2m more per year. I've seen no evidence to contradict the statements that he really wanted to be in a city w/a large hispanic population.

As for the Tigers, I believe they are going to really be feeling the pain paying Magglio 15m in 2008 and 18m in 2009. And Tiger fans will be counting the days until his contract comes off the books like O's fans were w/Albert Belle.

I never noticed anything about Farnsworth or Ryan. Is this you or them? I said they made an all out effort to do what it takes. No one is 100% successful. I didn't know they were interested in them. How can you disparage the Tigers effort, yet defend the Orioles? I see that you are a results guy. I remember Det had the hardest time attracting hitters beacuse of the dimensions. WHat do they do ? Give lame excuses ? Cry about confederate money. They move the fences in! What else does Detroit have to do to prove their commitment? Win the WS? They're well on their way.

As for Vlad, I don't know how to get in the Sun archives, but very early in the negotiations Vlad's agents offered a counter-proposal of 6 yrs 90 million, which is 2 million more per year than we ultimately offered and 1 million more per yr than he signed for with the Angels. Their first counter offer was 7 yrs 100 million to our intial offer of 5/65 million that eventually increased to 6/78. I can't get a link, but I got no reason to lie and (regrettably) I remember it all too well.

As for the Tigers counting the days for Ordonez's contract to end, I'm sure they can pass the time polishing their WS trophy.I know they're enjoying the season more than we are. Why do you care so much about Petey's money ? Are you sure you're not related ?

I guess I'm an old fashioned results guy. I prefer the team winning even if they disrupt the "slot system" on draft day. I couldn't care less about the self-satisfaction of not "overpaying" for a guy like Ordonez if it gets me a WS ring.

I don't think we'll ever agree. But hey, you're right, the O's are getting it done! I stand corrected. They do everything right. The 9 straight years of losing is all bad luck. There's nothing we can do about it. We play in the AL East. Its too tough to compete with NYY, BOS, and now TOR.

Bad defensive players win the gold glove too!

[Boca Bird]

You didn't adress the fact that you were wrong about Detroit since they didn't do everything humanly possible to get the guys they targeted. Why aren't you attacking them for letting the market get the best of them and letting BJ Ryan sign w/the Jays and Farnsworth w/the Yankees?.

Dude, what is wrong with you ?

First off, I wasn't wrong about Detroit. You were

I made the simple statement that Detroit turned their fortunes around by overpaying for a for a few FA's back in the day. You disputed that by saying it was just their young pitching coming around. I listed the players they did this with. Another poster listed the players that I forgot. Now you're trying to change everything around and put words in my mouth. Whats the point in that? Are you really disputing that the Tigers haven't turned their fortunes around ? Or are you still disputing that one of the first things they did was overpay for Pudge and Ordonez ?

Move on