What If Tejada Is Traded?

[El Gordo]

No doubt about it. Vlad (and D Lee) were exactly the young, complete players that you should build around. The kicker was that they were below market value in a buyers market. I don't think last season's collapse happens with them in the line-up or in the field.

Do you know how much better their defense makes our young pitching (rhetorical question)

After the Vlad fiasco, I knew this team was a long way from winning again. I still can't bring mnyself to watch the Angels game on EI.:002_scry:

That was the same year they got Tejada and Javy. Do you really think they balked at extra $5 or $6mil. after all the spending they had already done? There had to be more too it than that.

[geschinger]

You're conveniently leaving out the 2nd part of Detroit's plan that I mentioned. I said that they initially overpaid for FA's (Pudge,Ordonez) and then were successful in the draft. I believe their success in the draft was the result of taking the best available players as opposed to being overly concerned with "signability".

If you want to disagree with me, that's fine, but there's no need to conveniently leave out half of my points or distort what I'm saying

I think you are missing my point... You credited the Tigers for starting their rebuilding by overpaying and criticized the Orioles for not doing the same.

I'm saying the Tigers success has very little to do w/those big free agent signings as the O's have had signed free agents during the same time who have outproduced those guys. Therefore the Tigers FA strategy as implemented has not produced more than that of Baltimore's so why do you give credit to Detroit and criticize Baltimore?

I think Baltimore has done a commendable job w/their key free agent signings. I also believe they have incompetent until very recently at acquiring (mainly from the draft) and developing it to the point where it can help the MLB team. That incompetence and the lack of prospects ready to step leads to the stop-gap FA signings like the Conines of the world.

In a perfect world we'd have a pipeline of talent and would supplement it with targeted FA. To try to build a team via FA would be a terrible decision.

[geschinger]

The Tigers overpaid for Fernando Vina(2 yrs @ $3mill a piece for 04&05), Ugeth Urbina($4 mill, who they traded to get Polanco) and Troy Percival ($6 million in 2005 & 06) before they went and overpaid for Pudge(4 for $40 mill), Ordonez (5 for $75 million), Kenny Rogers (2 for $16 mill) and Todd Jones (2 for $11 million)

The O's haven't even come close to that with only bringing in Tejada, Javy and Ramon Hernandez as quality players sprinkled with the Palmeiro's, Conine's, Millar's and James Baldwin's of the free agent market.

Most of those guys mentioned with the short / relatively cheap are stopgaps and have little to nothing to do with why the team is winning now.

[Boca Bird]

My guess is they take the $3mil. buyout '09. His numbers have peeked and at 33 he wont be worth $15 mil. The problem with Vlad is, that as a free swinger, when the bat speed slows down he has nothing to fall back on. The SO will mount.

Why would his bat slow down at 33? Manny is 34 right now and Vlad keeps himself in better shape than Manny everhas. My guess is that at 33 Vlad will be a very productive player and a bargain in '09 for a player of his caliber @ 15 mil a season. Time will tell

[Boca Bird]

That was the same year they got Tejada and Javy. Do you really think they balked at extra $5 or $6mil. after all the spending they had already done? There had to be more too it than that.

Like what ??? I think they tried to play hardball and lost. As per usual, a gross miscalculation.

Those were long, protracted negotiations. The Angels swooped in at the last minute once it it was apparent Vlad was still available. Vlad was ours for the taking. However, it was apparent it wasn't going to happen once I started reading quotes in the newspaper from Beatagan worrying about Vlad's "violent swing" and yada yada yada

I really don't want to re-live this again, its too depressing.

[Boca Bird]

Most of those guys mentioned with the short / relatively cheap are stopgaps and have little to nothing to do with why the team is winning now.

It doesn't matter if they are still with the Tigers or not. It illustrates that the Tigers were willing to overpay to get FA's.

Now that the Tigers are winning, they might start getting players at a "winner's" disount. You know, like the Orioles used to get.

[geschinger]

Like what ??? I think they tried to play hardball and lost. As per usual, a gross miscalculation.

Those were long, protracted negotiations. The Angels swooped in at the last minute once it it was apparent Vlad was still available. Vlad was ours for the taking. However, it was apparent it wasn't going to happen once I started reading quotes in the newspaper from Beatagan worrying about Vlad's "violent swing" and yada yada yada

I really don't want to re-live this again, its too depressing.

Vlad didn't want to sign with Baltimore, that was made clear. I have no reason not to believe him/his reps when they said he wanted to be in a city with a bigger hispanic population. I think he was dragging things out w/Baltimore desparately hoping a team in a city more to his liking made an offer. When they did he jumped on it.

[geschinger]

It doesn't matter if they are still with the Tigers or not. It illustrates that the Tigers were willing to overpay to get FA's.

Now that the Tigers are winning, they might start getting players at a "winner's" disount. You know, like the Orioles used to get.

Yes, the Tigers are willing to overpay for free agents. I agree completely with you on that point. But what is the point? How is that relevant to the success their having in 2006?

We've gotten more production out of our big FA signings therefore any ojective analysis would conclude that it's not overpaying for FAs that is responsible for their success.

The conclusion that we should be coming to is that the most important thing to future success is to continue to build up the farm system.

[Boca Bird]

Yes, the Tigers are willing to overpay for free agents. I agree completely with you on that point. But what is the point? How is that relevant to the success their having in 2006?

We've gotten more production out of our big FA signings therefore any ojective analysis would conclude that it's not overpaying for FAs that is responsible for their success.

The conclusion that we should be coming to is that the most important thing to future success is to continue to build up the farm system.

In order to build up the farm system, you have to draft the best available players and not the most signable players.

That said, you can't ignore the FA market. For instance, Kenny Rogers is a vital piece of that rotation and TJones has been an asset as a closer until Zumaya is ready. I think Rogers and Jones are VERY RELEVANT to their success in 2006.

Long story short, before there can be winning, there must be a commitment to winning.

[geschinger]

In order to build up the farm system, you have to draft the best available players and not the most signable players.

Has Detroit done that to build up their system? Did they have an opportunity to draft Drew or Weaver? Did they do it?

That said, you can't ignore the FA market. For instance, Kenny Rogers is a vital piece of that rotation and TJones has been an asset as a closer until Zumaya is ready. I think Rogers and Jones are VERY RELEVANT to their success in 2006.

Long story short, before there can be winning, there must be a commitment to winning.

I agree that you can't ignore the FA market but facts are facts... The Orioles have not ignored the free agent market. They've tried and bombed on bullpen arms in recent years. They've signed Tejada, they've signed Lopez, they've signed Ramon Hernandez. They haven't gotten everyone you or I would of liked but by any definition they have not ignored the FA market.

I'm all for short term deals for guys of Rogers ability/price tag. I'd much rather sign a Rogers type to the bridge the gap to homegrown arms than to say overpay and bring Zito in on a 5/75m contract as an example.

[badboydrake]

You also have to take into effect, that some free agents cost you draft picks.

Of course, at the same time, we havent been in a situation where they would cost us 1st round guys, but baseball drafts are a crapshoot.

Wasn't there a SS or something picked before Verlander was?

Fact is that we look like we made out better drafting Townsend, losing him, then getting Olsen, then drafting Drew.

[JohnD]

A few of you asked for my thoughts on all of this. Well, here it is.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/article.asp?ID=531

[geschinger]

A few of you asked for my thoughts on all of this. Well, here it is.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/article.asp?ID=531

Nice article. Though I disagree that if Tejada is traded that it would take until 2010 at the earliest to compete. If they were to get a package from the Angels w/Wood or Kendrick or package from the Astros that includes Pence and Hirsch I don't see why we couldn't be a contender by 2008.

Also the prospects that I think many of us would like to see included in a deal for Tejada are in a completely different league than the failed prospects mentioned from other trades.

[BigSkip]

Nice article. Though I disagree that if Tejada is traded that it would take until 2010 at the earliest to compete. If they were to get a package from the Angels w/Wood or Kendrick or package from the Astros that includes Pence and Hirsch I don't see why we couldn't be a contender by 2008.

Also the prospects that I think many of us would like to see included in a deal for Tejada are in a completely different league than the failed prospects mentioned from other trades.

Because counting on all of our prospects, old or new, to be already be putting up solid/good numbers by 2008 is irrational.

Look at Erik Bedard. He's out best pitcher, yeah, but it took him three seasons to really get things under control. You'll find that that's the story with a lot of young guys.

Therefore, assuming 2007, 2008, and 2009 will be years when players develop and build makes sense.

[Boca Bird]

Has Detroit done that to build up their system? Did they have an opportunity to draft Drew or Weaver? Did they do it?

I agree that you can't ignore the FA market but facts are facts... The Orioles have not ignored the free agent market. They've tried and bombed on bullpen arms in recent years. They've signed Tejada, they've signed Lopez, they've signed Ramon Hernandez. They haven't gotten everyone you or I would of liked but by any definition they have not ignored the FA market.

I'm all for short term deals for guys of Rogers ability/price tag. I'd much rather sign a Rogers type to the bridge the gap to homegrown arms than to say overpay and bring Zito in on a 5/75m contract as an example.

No they didn't take Drew or Weaver OBVIOUSLY They took Verlander who fell to them because San Diego was worried about signabilty and took that HS SS. Can you argue with Verlander as a pick? Verlander was the one pitcher rated as highly as Weaver. When all things are equal, then and only then, you can worry about signability.

When did I say the Orioles ignored the FA market ??? You asked what did Detroit overpaying for FA's have to do with their 2006 team[/b]. Remember ? Thats why I mentioned Rogers and Jones. I guess you could say overpaying for FA's applies to their catcher as well as their clean-up hitter.

I have no interest in Zito or a 5 yr contract. Why would you mention Zito?

My point, as I originally stated, was that people forget that the Tigers initially had to overpay FA's at first to get them. You said it was BS. Its not BS, their #3 and #4 hitters, their #1 starter and their closer were all "overpaid."

Conversely, in Orioleland, during the winter, you hear things like "we're waiting for the market to establish itself". In the summer, when draft day rolls around, you hear terms like "signability". Detroit is winning right now because they have been committed to to winning. Its apparent that the O's rosters are designed in a way that IF everything goes right, we might have a chance. The Tigers seemed intent on winning and they are finally enjoying the friuts of their labor. Good for them. I'm envious. You don't win until you're committed to winning. Do you honestly think Angelos is commited to winning? Detroit did what it had to do. It seems like this franchise is stuck in a mode of expediency

But hey, you're right, the Oriole approach is working way better than the Tigers. You can't argue with facts like that

Its also a fact that bad defensive players win gold gloves too, right ?