Jump to content

BP's Kevin Goldstein ranks the Orioles top 20


Frobby

Recommended Posts

So, what should we take from the comments on the changeup? I mean, I have seen the BA league top 20 write ups with one saying the changeup and slider were on the same level. The slider I saw him throw 1 time in the futures game was what I'd consider plus. Now, we see KG say the changeup is plus and the slider is average. There is no way that the slider is "average". IMO he is mixing up the secondaries which is pretty easy to do for 1 guy out of a top 20 out of 30 teams......

I just have a hard time justifying to myself what I should believe as far as what he is saying here about Britton. I can't discount one thing and then believe the very next statement. Only thing I know is that the slider he threw in the Future's Game was a plus pitch which at the very least would mean he "flashes" a plus slider.......So I dunno.....

I haven't seen what BA said, but this was Stotle's summary:

For Britton at AA, heavy fastball (sinker) among best in minors. 90-94. Evaluators split on whether slider or change-up is better secondary. CH has some drop, slider will flash a little depth. Ability to turn those into legit ML pitches will determine if he can reach his ceiling (maybe a #2). Needs to improve control and handling the running game. Doesn't have firmest handle on commanding his fastball -- pitch gets away from him and dives well out of zone.

For Britton at AAA, basically the same write-up, though this staffer separates the FB/SI and says SL is best secondary. Also mentions Britton loses his release point in his delivery, causing both control and command to suffer.

Then you have Mike Griffinn saying this:

"We worked on the development of his change-up this year, which made most unbelievable progress.

"He got to a point in Norfolk, where he was comfortable throwing the change-up behind in the count and next thing I know he is throwing 3-1 change-ups and getting easy, quick outs. He has really gained a lot of confidence and it's a real good pitch for him."

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2010/11/britton-and-griffin-joined-forces-in-2010-at-norfolk.html

What I make of it all is that, at the end of the day, Britton is going to have one super-dominant pitch and two other solid to above average offerings. If he can refine his command just a bit, he's going to be one heck of a pitcher. If his command just stays about where it is, he'll still be pretty decent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, what should we take from the comments on the changeup? I mean, I have seen the BA league top 20 write ups with one saying the changeup and slider were on the same level. The slider I saw him throw 1 time in the futures game was what I'd consider plus. Now, we see KG say the changeup is plus and the slider is average. There is no way that the slider is "average". IMO he is mixing up the secondaries which is pretty easy to do for 1 guy out of a top 20 out of 30 teams......

I just have a hard time justifying to myself what I should believe as far as what he is saying here about Britton. I can't discount one thing and then believe the very next statement. Only thing I know is that the slider he threw in the Future's Game was a plus pitch which at the very least would mean he "flashes" a plus slider.......So I dunno.....

In Mike Griffin's comments on Britton to Melewski recently, Griffin is very high on the change and says that Britton made big strides with it this season, getting to the point of throwing it in all counts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, what should we take from the comments on the changeup? I mean, I have seen the BA league top 20 write ups with one saying the changeup and slider were on the same level. The slider I saw him throw 1 time in the futures game was what I'd consider plus. Now, we see KG say the changeup is plus and the slider is average. There is no way that the slider is "average". IMO he is mixing up the secondaries which is pretty easy to do for 1 guy out of a top 20 out of 30 teams......

I just have a hard time justifying to myself what I should believe as far as what he is saying here about Britton. I can't discount one thing and then believe the very next statement. Only thing I know is that the slider he threw in the Future's Game was a plus pitch which at the very least would mean he "flashes" a plus slider.......So I dunno.....

The slider USED to be his second best pitch, but with the improvement he made on the change this year it's a little better than the slider now. You can't get hung up on the plus-plus, plus, or average semantics. They are just opinions that person is throwing out and are going to differ from person to person. You personally are really quick to throw out a plus or plus plus, and I don't think you realize how rare those pitches are.

I haven't seen Britton in a few months, but I'd be willing to guess it's a plus plus FB, and both the change and slider are above average. Maybe Tony or Stotle would know better if they have seen him, but I have doubts that he turned a below average pitch into a plus pitch in one season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, what should we take from the comments on the changeup? I mean, I have seen the BA league top 20 write ups with one saying the changeup and slider were on the same level. The slider I saw him throw 1 time in the futures game was what I'd consider plus. Now, we see KG say the changeup is plus and the slider is average. There is no way that the slider is "average". IMO he is mixing up the secondaries which is pretty easy to do for 1 guy out of a top 20 out of 30 teams......

I just have a hard time justifying to myself what I should believe as far as what he is saying here about Britton. I can't discount one thing and then believe the very next statement. Only thing I know is that the slider he threw in the Future's Game was a plus pitch which at the very least would mean he "flashes" a plus slider.......So I dunno.....

Just my opinion, but neither the slider nor the changeup is a plus pitch. They have both, however, gotten much better over the last year. I think the slider is a more effective swing and miss pitch, but the change-up is important to his repertoire. If he can just get a little more consistent with it, it can be an above average pitch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To put scouting grades in general context, most pro evaluators are within about one grade of each other. So, it would not be uncommon to see a situation where one evaluator grades a pitch a 5 (or 50) and another grades it a 4 (or 40) or a 6 (or a 60). It would be unlikely for on evaluator to grade a pitch as a plus and another to say it's below average.

Applying to this situation, Frobby's post seems like a nice summation. Someone like Goldstein may not be able to talk to more than a handful of people for each list, so he could potentially hear a number of contradicting opinions, which he in turn would have to sort through and weigh accordingly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To put scouting grades in general context, most pro evaluators are within about one grade of each other. So, it would not be uncommon to see a situation where one evaluator grades a pitch a 5 (or 50) and another grades it a 4 (or 40) or a 6 (or a 60). It would be unlikely for on evaluator to grade a pitch as a plus and another to say it's below average.

Applying to this situation, Frobby's post seems like a nice summation. Someone like Goldstein may not be able to talk to more than a handful of people for each list, so he could potentially hear a number of contradicting opinions, which he in turn would have to sort through and weigh accordingly.

I don't know if that was directed towards me or not, but I just wanted to clarify s,ince I didn't really word it well that I was talking about his change two years ago (it was average-ish, I thought a bit below for control concerns) before he made all the improvements this year. I was kind of saying the same thing though, that I could see a jump of about a grade or so, but no way I could see it improving two full grades or more in a season.

I guess a lot depends on where you saw his change being before last season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The slider USED to be his second best pitch, but with the improvement he made on the change this year it's a little better than the slider now. You can't get hung up on the plus-plus, plus, or average semantics. They are just opinions that person is throwing out and are going to differ from person to person. You personally are really quick to throw out a plus or plus plus, and I don't think you realize how rare those pitches are.

I haven't seen Britton in a few months, but I'd be willing to guess it's a plus plus FB, and both the change and slider are above average. Maybe Tony or Stotle would know better if they have seen him, but I have doubts that he turned a below average pitch into a plus pitch in one season.

Tony has pretty often said the slider is atleast above average. Maybe in the past I have been a bit caught up in the semantics of "plus" and blah blah blah, but if you go back and look at the Future's Game, he only threw 1 slider, and to me that was a plus offering AKA a swing and miss pitch, or a better than average offering. Not saying that he consistently throws a plus slider, but he atleast flashes one and from just about every other outlet I have heard or read says that his slider is atleast an above average pitch..........

A plus pitch isn't THAT rare, its a swing and miss pitch, subjectively viewed or labeled as better than average to great. Plus-plus offerings are certainly rare, but what exactly are you trying to point out here?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know if that was directed towards me or not, but I just wanted to clarify s,ince I didn't really word it well that I was talking about his change two years ago (it was average-ish, I thought a bit below for control concerns) before he made all the improvements this year. I was kind of saying the same thing though, that I could see a jump of about a grade or so, but no way I could see it improving two full grades or more in a season.

I guess a lot depends on where you saw his change being before last season.

No, not directed at anyone. Just context for reading prospect lists that quote scouts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tony has pretty often said the slider is atleast above average. Maybe in the past I have been a bit caught up in the semantics of "plus" and blah blah blah, but if you go back and look at the Future's Game, he only threw 1 slider, and to me that was a plus offering AKA a swing and miss pitch, or a better than average offering. Not saying that he consistently throws a plus slider, but he atleast flashes one and from just about every other outlet I have heard or read says that his slider is atleast an above average pitch..........

A plus pitch isn't THAT rare, its a swing and miss pitch, subjectively viewed or labeled as better than average to great. Plus-plus offerings are certainly rare, but what exactly are you trying to point out here?

No plus pitches are not every swing and miss pitch. In the minors plenty of pitches are swing and miss pitches because the hitters aren't disciplined enough to not swing at bad ones. Swing and miss pitches are pitches that get swung and missed at a majority of the time, and can be controlled at will. Throwing one slider does not tell you if the pitch is a plus pitch, it's ONE pitch. You need to see a couple to see if he was throwing it where he intended and if that batter is capable of hitting at that level before you judge it. If you decided he was throwing a plus slider that was in different locations everytime and being swung and missed by a fringe minor league player hitting .140 in AA, you could be surprised when he goes up against a .300 hitting player with the eye to lay off pitches who gets 4 hits off it.

Plus pitches are fairly rare too, not every prospect has one. I've read that his slider is average to above average, but not consistently above average either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, not directed at anyone. Just context for reading prospect lists that quote scouts.

Ah ok, I just re-read what I wrote after you said that and decided I wanted to clear things up a little bit since I had touched on that. Once again you get the point across in much fewer words ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting that Tillman is not in the top 10 talent under 25 category and behind Arrieta and Bergy. I don't necessarily disagree but it's surprising that a national writer doesn't have him on that list considering he is was a top 25 prospect a year or two ago. It leads me to wonder just how much bloom is off his rose around the league.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No plus pitches are not every swing and miss pitch. In the minors plenty of pitches are swing and miss pitches because the hitters aren't disciplined enough to not swing at bad ones. Swing and miss pitches are pitches that get swung and missed at a majority of the time, and can be controlled at will. Throwing one slider does not tell you if the pitch is a plus pitch, it's ONE pitch. You need to see a couple to see if he was throwing it where he intended and if that batter is capable of hitting at that level before you judge it. If you decided he was throwing a plus slider that was in different locations everytime and being swung and missed by a fringe minor league player hitting .140 in AA, you could be surprised when he goes up against a .300 hitting player with the eye to lay off pitches who gets 4 hits off it.

Plus pitches are fairly rare too, not every prospect has one. I've read that his slider is average to above average, but not consistently above average either.

I know you can't tell that a pitcher consistently throws a plus pitch by seeing one offering, but if he throws 1 pitch and its plus then you can conclude that he at the very least flashes one, no?

And if we are including the ability to command a pitch into the grade, then how is Britton's sinker plus-plus? Maybe it has plus-plus bite and movement, but the command inconsistency has to drop it a grade, correct?

And what someone defines as a swing and miss pitch is also subjective. When I say its a swing and miss pitch, I don't have to see a hitter swing at it and miss it. The best way for myself to describe it is on the letter system. C is average, B is above average to plus(depending on your interpretation) and A plus-plus, or the best of the best.

And, as far as Britton's slider, I think I have read it labeled anywhere from average to plus. So, unless you have seen it recently, I don't know how you or anyone can honestly come away with a concrete answer to what the quality of Britton's slider really is......And that is what my original post was meant to mean.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know you can't tell that a pitcher consistently throws a plus pitch by seeing one offering, but if he throws 1 pitch and its plus then you can conclude that he at the very least flashes one, no?

And if we are including the ability to command a pitch into the grade, then how is Britton's sinker plus-plus? Maybe it has plus-plus bite and movement, but the command inconsistency has to drop it a grade, correct?

And what someone defines as a swing and miss pitch is also subjective. When I say its a swing and miss pitch, I don't have to see a hitter swing at it and miss it. The best way for myself to describe it is on the letter system. C is average, B is above average to plus(depending on your interpretation) and A plus-plus, or the best of the best.

And, as far as Britton's slider, I think I have read it labeled anywhere from average to plus. So, unless you have seen it recently, I don't know how you or anyone can honestly come away with a concrete answer to what the quality of Britton's slider really is......And that is what my original post was meant to mean.

It's very easy to misinterpret a pitch as being better than it is if you don't do it all the time. I would have to say someone would have to be a very experienced scout to see ONE pitch and label what it is, there are 3-4 people on this whole site I would be willing to guess that can do that, and no, I'm not counting myself in that group.

Because Britton's command is not that bad with his sinker, sometimes he just throws it over the plate because he knows no one is going to get good contact unless he leaves it up, and sometimes he misses by overthrowing it, but those are the only times I've ever seen his command get shaky. It's not like it's a pitch that sometimes he can get it where he wants and sometimes he can't like his change and slider have been.

A letter scale doesn't tell you if a pitch is a swing and miss pitch though, those are usually pitches that have late, hard break so that they dive when the hitter goes to swing. It's called a swing and miss pitch because people well...swing and miss it, so no, that is not subjective.

You can count out about 30% of the online writeups about guys and their pitch quality because they have never seen them and don't have the contacts to back it up. Then another 30-40% go solely on 2nd hand info, so keep that in mind when you are reading things about players.

I trust certain people's opinions on them for various reasons, but I don't recall Stotle or Tony saying that he had a plus slider. If you are saying he's got a plus plus FB, a plus slider, and now a change that is better than that, you are talking about the best prospect in baseball (Strasburg doesn't have 3 plus pitches). So you'd see a lot more hype, just to put it in perspective.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's very easy to misinterpret a pitch as being better than it is if you don't do it all the time. I would have to say someone would have to be a very experienced scout to see ONE pitch and label what it is, there are 3-4 people on this whole site I would be willing to guess that can do that, and no, I'm not counting myself in that group.

Because Britton's command is not that bad with his sinker, sometimes he just throws it over the plate because he knows no one is going to get good contact unless he leaves it up, and sometimes he misses by overthrowing it, but those are the only times I've ever seen his command get shaky. It's not like it's a pitch that sometimes he can get it where he wants and sometimes he can't like his change and slider have been.

A letter scale doesn't tell you if a pitch is a swing and miss pitch though, those are usually pitches that have late, hard break so that they dive when the hitter goes to swing. It's called a swing and miss pitch because people well...swing and miss it, so no, that is not subjective.

You can count out about 30% of the online writeups about guys and their pitch quality because they have never seen them and don't have the contacts to back it up. Then another 30-40% go solely on 2nd hand info, so keep that in mind when you are reading things about players.

I trust certain people's opinions on them for various reasons, but I don't recall Stotle or Tony saying that he had a plus slider. If you are saying he's got a plus plus FB, a plus slider, and now a change that is better than that, you are talking about the best prospect in baseball (Strasburg doesn't have 3 plus pitches). So you'd see a lot more hype, just to put it in perspective.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=89417&highlight=britton+2009+prospect

There at I think post #11, Tony says his slider is plus at times, aka flashes plus. Stotle has said plenty of times that he hasn't seen Britton pitch in a long time, so I will stand behind what the guy who has seen Britton recently and has followed him pretty strongly since day one.

No, I have never said Britton has a plus-plus sinker, nor have I said he has a plus slider. I said he flashes plus, and I don't think you have to be a full fledged scout to be able to recognize "plus" bite or movement on a pitch.

I will put my money on the fact that Britton's changeup isn't better than the slider right now. I think it has to do with a mixup of info from 1st to 2nd to 3rd hand communications......

IMO, Britton's FB is plus, slider is above average and the changeup is average and has room to improve....

Once again, I try to stay away from "online writeups" due to the fact that it is not always accurate. I believe Stotle's writeups, and Tony's writeups for a solid foundation of knowledge on select guys and watch videos or whatever else I can get my hands on to confirm or conflict with what they say....

The other online writeups I like, but try to take them with a grain of salt, or atleast attempt to confirm what I read.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=89417&highlight=britton+2009+prospect

There at I think post #11, Tony says his slider is plus at times, aka flashes plus. Stotle has said plenty of times that he hasn't seen Britton pitch in a long time, so I will stand behind what the guy who has seen Britton recently and has followed him pretty strongly since day one.

No, I have never said Britton has a plus-plus sinker, nor have I said he has a plus slider. I said he flashes plus, and I don't think you have to be a full fledged scout to be able to recognize "plus" bite or movement on a pitch.

I will put my money on the fact that Britton's changeup isn't better than the slider right now. I think it has to do with a mixup of info from 1st to 2nd to 3rd hand communications......

IMO, Britton's FB is plus, slider is above average and the changeup is average and has room to improve....

Well, here is what Britton himself said today:

He made big improvements with his change-up this past season, but said his slider is probably still his best secondary pitch, although on a given day, the change can be as good, sometimes better, than that slider.

"I want my slider to be almost like a cutter eventually. The slider is where I get all my strikeouts, lefties and righties. I don't get a lot of strikeouts on my sinker, that's a groundball pitch.

"Watching Cliff Lee throw, he dominated in October with two pitches for the most part. I saw how he used that cutter."

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/2010/11/orioles_free_agent_tidbits.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • Have you seen the game threads?  We're never going to make the post season w/ those kind of fans.  We might as well just give them all pink hats.
    • I think Burnes gets 5 days rest because of the off day tomorrow so it seems like a good spot to push him a little.  He only threw 107, so its not like we went Dusty Baker on him.   I mentioned that I think Hyde has to manage our starters a little less delicately with our bullpen sucking.  It looks Hyde is inclined to agree with this.
    • Have you seen the lineups? They are a joke. Hyde has to go too.     😎 Insomnia in progress. 
    • I have to admit I am all for resigning Burnes too, I just can't remember the last time the O's signed a free agent the other top teams wanted.  I don't think even Chris Davis fits that category because the O's were bidding against themselves.  Albert Belle?  I guess I'll just try to be hopeful.  I can't see Rubenstein making himself the public face of the franchise and then turning around and basically saying this is going to be my cash cow.  I guess we'll soon find out.  I have to admit I am looking forward to this way more than the election.  lol
    • It seems to me they should probably change their approach or the season will end up a disaster.  It’s frankly unexplainable they haven’t demoted/traded/DFA’d the players that aren’t performing.  It’s a joke management thinks this group of players has any chance of winning anything.  Imagine if they could just walk more..
    • Sorry I’m not Gretzky fan , lol . And don’t know any of his quotes. But I would love to hear it , if you can share.    Speaking of bullpen, I agree that ours needs to be augmented and upgraded.  The trade deadline is coming soon so……..
    • I agree. He's a major factor in our odds to win a World Series. Gotta go for it while you can and keep him if we can. I generally don't like big contracts and view them as over pays. I criticized the Albert Belle signing, I hated the Ubaldo Jimenez signing, and I didn't feel comfortable with the Chris Davis extension. But to me those players did not have a solid consistent careers as a pure Ace player like Burnes does. Burnes is a player I feel confident that you know what you're getting, even if we can expect a decline by age 35. Up to that point, you're getting a perennial Cy Young competitor to anchor your entire Pitching Staff and give you a chance to win when you need it most just like he did tonight in the game 3 rubber match in a series against division rivals. This series against the Red Sox, Burnes was effectively the Stopper and got us back on track. I'm all for resigning Corbin Burnes! It's on my Christmas wish list!
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...